Preseason Rankings
Tennessee
Southeastern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#9
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.4#271
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.9% 4.1% 1.0%
#1 Seed 15.7% 16.6% 4.1%
Top 2 Seed 30.9% 54.9% 26.7%
Top 4 Seed 52.8% 54.9% 26.7%
Top 6 Seed 68.7% 54.9% 26.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.8% 88.3% 67.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.2% 85.9% 64.4%
Average Seed 4.2 4.1 5.6
.500 or above 95.7% 96.5% 86.1%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 88.8% 75.4%
Conference Champion 24.3% 25.4% 10.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.9%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 2.7%
First Round85.9% 87.5% 66.5%
Second Round68.3% 70.1% 46.1%
Sweet Sixteen43.6% 45.1% 24.8%
Elite Eight24.9% 25.9% 12.1%
Final Four13.3% 13.9% 5.3%
Championship Game7.1% 7.5% 2.7%
National Champion3.6% 3.8% 1.2%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3.0 - 4.53.0 - 4.5
Quad 1b3.0 - 1.66.0 - 6.0
Quad 25.1 - 1.411.1 - 7.5
Quad 35.3 - 0.616.4 - 8.1
Quad 45.4 - 0.121.8 - 8.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 100   Louisiana W 79-67 93%    
  Nov 13, 2018 113   Georgia Tech W 72-59 93%    
  Nov 21, 2018 54   Louisville W 75-68 74%    
  Nov 23, 2018 1   Kansas L 70-74 38%    
  Nov 28, 2018 273   Eastern Kentucky W 82-60 99%    
  Dec 02, 2018 309   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 80-55 99%    
  Dec 09, 2018 5   Gonzaga L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 15, 2018 101   @ Memphis W 75-63 78%    
  Dec 19, 2018 322   Samford W 87-61 99%    
  Dec 22, 2018 115   Wake Forest W 78-65 91%    
  Dec 29, 2018 287   Tennessee Tech W 81-58 99%    
  Jan 05, 2019 80   Georgia W 69-59 86%    
  Jan 08, 2019 51   @ Missouri W 71-64 62%    
  Jan 12, 2019 16   @ Florida W 70-68 48%    
  Jan 15, 2019 94   Arkansas W 78-67 87%    
  Jan 19, 2019 39   Alabama W 72-66 77%    
  Jan 23, 2019 83   @ Vanderbilt W 74-64 73%    
  Jan 26, 2019 11   West Virginia W 72-71 64%    
  Jan 29, 2019 61   @ South Carolina W 72-65 64%    
  Feb 02, 2019 64   @ Texas A&M W 74-66 66%    
  Feb 05, 2019 51   Missouri W 71-64 78%    
  Feb 09, 2019 16   Florida W 70-68 67%    
  Feb 13, 2019 61   South Carolina W 72-65 81%    
  Feb 16, 2019 3   @ Kentucky L 71-73 33%    
  Feb 19, 2019 83   Vanderbilt W 74-64 86%    
  Feb 23, 2019 46   @ LSU W 75-69 61%    
  Feb 27, 2019 118   @ Mississippi W 80-67 79%    
  Mar 02, 2019 3   Kentucky L 71-73 53%    
  Mar 05, 2019 21   Mississippi St. W 71-68 68%    
  Mar 09, 2019 13   @ Auburn W 77-75 45%    
Projected Record 21.8 - 8.2 12.2 - 5.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 7.1 6.8 4.2 1.5 24.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.2 6.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.0 5.1 2.0 0.3 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.9 4.2 1.3 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 3.4 1.4 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.5 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.1 5.0 7.1 9.0 10.7 12.1 12.9 12.0 10.7 7.6 4.2 1.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 99.3% 4.2    4.0 0.2
16-2 89.1% 6.8    5.5 1.3 0.0
15-3 66.3% 7.1    3.9 2.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 29.4% 3.5    1.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.5% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.3% 24.3 16.3 6.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 100.0% 51.9% 48.1% 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.2% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.3 3.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.6% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.5 4.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 10.7% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.9 4.0 4.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.0% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.6 2.0 4.1 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.9% 99.8% 16.0% 83.8% 3.6 0.7 1.9 4.0 3.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 12.1% 99.5% 12.9% 86.6% 4.8 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-7 10.7% 96.5% 10.0% 86.5% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.3 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 96.2%
10-8 9.0% 87.4% 7.8% 79.6% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 86.3%
9-9 7.1% 70.0% 7.1% 62.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 67.7%
8-10 5.0% 42.7% 5.7% 37.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 39.3%
7-11 3.1% 15.3% 2.9% 12.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 12.8%
6-12 1.9% 1.3% 0.3% 1.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.0%
5-13 1.1% 2.7% 2.6% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0%
4-14 0.7% 2.1% 2.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 86.8% 16.3% 70.4% 4.2 15.7 15.2 12.3 9.6 8.6 7.4 5.1 4.4 3.3 2.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 84.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.4