Preseason Rankings
Syracuse
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#12
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.7#344
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.4%
#1 Seed 9.7% 9.9% 2.8%
Top 2 Seed 19.7% 39.7% 15.3%
Top 4 Seed 38.7% 39.7% 15.3%
Top 6 Seed 53.6% 39.7% 15.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.3% 82.3% 57.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.4% 80.4% 55.3%
Average Seed 5.2 5.2 6.6
.500 or above 95.1% 95.7% 80.6%
.500 or above in Conference 81.8% 82.5% 63.5%
Conference Champion 12.8% 13.0% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 1.9%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 3.5%
First Round79.8% 80.7% 55.7%
Second Round59.9% 60.7% 39.1%
Sweet Sixteen35.5% 36.1% 20.5%
Elite Eight19.3% 19.6% 9.8%
Final Four9.7% 9.9% 4.0%
Championship Game4.8% 4.9% 1.6%
National Champion2.2% 2.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.5 - 4.42.5 - 4.4
Quad 1b2.4 - 1.64.9 - 6.0
Quad 25.1 - 1.710.1 - 7.8
Quad 36.9 - 0.816.9 - 8.6
Quad 45.4 - 0.122.3 - 8.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 174   Eastern Washington W 74-58 96%    
  Nov 10, 2018 224   Morehead St. W 76-57 98%    
  Nov 15, 2018 96   Connecticut W 71-61 83%    
  Nov 16, 2018 17   Oregon W 67-65 55%    
  Nov 21, 2018 209   Colgate W 74-56 97%    
  Nov 28, 2018 40   @ Ohio St. W 68-63 56%    
  Dec 01, 2018 248   Cornell W 78-58 98%    
  Dec 04, 2018 70   Northeastern W 69-62 82%    
  Dec 08, 2018 69   Georgetown W 73-66 82%    
  Dec 15, 2018 102   Old Dominion W 66-55 88%    
  Dec 18, 2018 65   Buffalo W 76-69 81%    
  Dec 22, 2018 286   Arkansas St. W 79-57 98%    
  Dec 29, 2018 119   St. Bonaventure W 73-61 90%    
  Jan 05, 2019 49   @ Notre Dame W 67-62 58%    
  Jan 09, 2019 18   Clemson W 65-63 65%    
  Jan 12, 2019 113   Georgia Tech W 67-56 88%    
  Jan 14, 2019 4   @ Duke L 69-72 30%    
  Jan 19, 2019 167   Pittsburgh W 70-55 94%    
  Jan 24, 2019 23   Miami (FL) W 67-65 67%    
  Jan 26, 2019 20   @ Virginia Tech W 70-68 46%    
  Jan 30, 2019 78   @ Boston College W 72-64 67%    
  Feb 02, 2019 167   @ Pittsburgh W 70-55 85%    
  Feb 05, 2019 15   Florida St. W 71-70 64%    
  Feb 09, 2019 78   Boston College W 72-64 83%    
  Feb 13, 2019 38   @ North Carolina St. W 74-70 56%    
  Feb 20, 2019 54   Louisville W 71-65 77%    
  Feb 23, 2019 4   Duke L 69-72 49%    
  Feb 26, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 70-73 31%    
  Mar 02, 2019 115   @ Wake Forest W 74-62 76%    
  Mar 04, 2019 2   Virginia L 55-59 47%    
  Mar 09, 2019 18   @ Clemson W 65-63 45%    
Projected Record 22.3 - 8.7 11.3 - 6.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.7 3.8 2.1 0.6 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.4 2.9 0.3 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.2 0.4 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.5 1.4 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.6 0.2 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.7 7.4 9.3 10.9 12.0 13.2 12.4 9.8 7.0 4.5 2.1 0.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.7% 2.1    1.9 0.2
16-2 84.5% 3.8    2.5 1.2 0.1
15-3 52.8% 3.7    1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-4 22.1% 2.2    0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 7.3 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.1% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.5% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 1.5 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.0% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.0 2.6 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.8% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2.8 1.6 3.1 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.4% 99.9% 9.9% 90.0% 3.8 0.6 1.7 3.1 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 13.2% 99.5% 9.5% 90.0% 5.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.0 2.9 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-7 12.0% 95.7% 6.9% 88.9% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 95.4%
10-8 10.9% 87.6% 6.1% 81.5% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.4 86.8%
9-9 9.3% 70.9% 4.2% 66.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 69.6%
8-10 7.4% 43.1% 3.9% 39.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 40.8%
7-11 4.7% 17.0% 2.6% 14.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 14.8%
6-12 2.9% 5.2% 3.0% 2.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 2.3%
5-13 1.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.1%
4-14 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 81.3% 9.5% 71.9% 5.2 9.7 10.1 9.7 9.3 8.4 6.4 6.7 5.8 5.6 5.0 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.7 79.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 87.8 12.2