IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.3	#91
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.1	#252
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.4	#105

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.9	#87

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	2.3%	0.3%
Top 4 Seed	0.7%	2.3%	0.3%
Top 6 Seed	1.6%	2.3%	0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.7%	28.4%	11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	8.6%	20.3%	6.0%
Average Seed	10.3	9.4	10.8

.500 or above	76.1%	91.7%	72.4%
.500 or above in Conference	71.4%	84.3%	68.4%
Conference Champion	5.6%	9.8%	4.7%
Last Place in Conference	1.6%	0.5%	1.9%

First Four	3.4%	6.3%	2.7%
First Round	13.0%	24.9%	10.2%
Second Round	5.4%	12.3%	3.7%
Sweet Sixteen	1.8%	3.8%	1.3%
Elite Eight	0.7%	1.2%	0.6%
Final Four	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.2 - 2.0	0.2 - 2.0
Quad 1b	0.5 - 1.7	0.7 - 3.6
Quad 2	1.8 - 2.9	2.5 - 6.6
Quad 3	4.8 - 3.3	7.3 - 9.8
Quad 4	10.1 - 1.8	17.4 - 11.6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 15, 2018	28	@ TCU	L	70-77	19%
Nov 22, 2018	62	Northwestern	L	65-68	38%
Nov 23, 2018	23	Miami (FL)	L	66-74	25%
Nov 25, 2018	201	Hawaii	W	72-64	76%
Nov 28, 2018	168	Pacific	W	72-66	77%
Dec 01, 2018	317	Cal Poly	W	76-61	94%
Dec 05, 2018	147	Weber St.	W	72-68	73%
Dec 08, 2018	189	Long Beach St.	W	78-71	80%
Dec 19, 2018	198	California	W	73-66	81%
Dec 22, 2018	285	Tennessee Martin	W	72-60	90%
Dec 29, 2018	152	Utah Valley	W	72-67	74%
Jan 02, 2019	321	@ San Jose St.	W	74-59	85%
Jan 05, 2019	180	Colorado St.	W	75-69	78%
Jan 09, 2019	144	@ Utah St.	W	72-68	53%
Jan 12, 2019	7	Nevada	L	70-81	24%
Jan 19, 2019	95	@ Boise St.	W	70-69	41%
Jan 22, 2019	45	San Diego St.	L	67-72	44%
Jan 26, 2019	180	@ Colorado St.	W	75-69	60%
Jan 30, 2019	173	@ Wyoming	W	78-72	59%
Feb 02, 2019	92	New Mexico	W	76-75	60%
Feb 05, 2019	144	Utah St.	W	72-68	72%
Feb 09, 2019	139	@ UNLV	W	77-74	51%
Feb 13, 2019	95	Boise St.	W	70-69	60%
Feb 16, 2019	92	@ New Mexico	W	76-75	40%
Feb 20, 2019	212	Air Force	W	72-64	82%
Feb 23, 2019	7	@ Nevada	L	70-81	12%
Feb 27, 2019	173	Wyoming	W	78-72	77%
Mar 06, 2019	45	@ San Diego St.	L	67-72	27%
Mar 09, 2019	321	San Jose St.	W	74-59	93%
Projected Record						17.4 - 11.6	10.2 - 7.8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	0.9	2.1	1.5	0.6	0.1		5.6	1st
2nd										0.0	0.0	0.4	2.2	4.5	4.8	2.1	0.4				14.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.9	3.8	6.0	4.0	1.1	0.1					15.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.9	4.3	6.2	2.8	0.5	0.0						14.8	4th
5th								0.1	0.9	4.6	5.7	2.4	0.3								14.1	5th
6th							0.1	1.0	3.7	4.5	1.7	0.1									11.0	6th
7th						0.1	0.9	3.4	3.6	1.2	0.1	0.0									9.3	7th
8th				0.0	0.0	0.7	2.7	2.6	0.9	0.1											7.1	8th
9th				0.1	0.7	1.8	1.5	0.4	0.0												4.5	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.8	0.3	0.0													2.6	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.7	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.7	3.4	5.4	7.4	9.2	11.4	12.7	12.8	11.4	9.4	6.8	4.3	1.9	0.6	0.1			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.6		0.5	0.1
16-2	78.5%	1.5		0.9	0.6	0.0
15-3	49.2%	2.1		1.1	0.9	0.1
14-4	12.7%	0.9		0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	4.7%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1
12-6	0.3%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.6%	5.6		2.9	2.1	0.5	0.1		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		100.0%	7.3%	92.7%	3.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0									100.0%
17-1	0.6%		97.4%	46.7%	50.7%	5.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		95.1%
16-2	1.9%		87.2%	25.7%	61.4%	7.8		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.2		82.7%
15-3	4.3%		68.6%	20.7%	47.9%	8.9				0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0			1.3		60.4%
14-4	6.8%		45.2%	15.1%	30.1%	10.4					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0			3.7		35.4%
13-5	9.4%		27.6%	11.8%	15.8%	11.2						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0			6.8		17.9%
12-6	11.4%		15.1%	9.0%	6.2%	12.0										0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	9.7		6.8%
11-7	12.8%		7.0%	5.8%	1.2%	12.7										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		11.9		1.2%
10-8	12.7%		4.7%	4.4%	0.3%	13.4												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	12.2		0.3%
9-9	11.4%		2.8%	2.8%	0.0%	14.0												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	11.1		0.0%
8-10	9.2%		1.7%	1.7%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.0
7-11	7.4%		1.2%	1.2%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	7.3
6-12	5.4%		0.3%	0.3%		15.1																0.0	0.0	5.4
5-13	3.4%		0.1%	0.1%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	3.4
4-14	1.7%																							1.7
3-15	0.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		14.7%	6.7%	8.0%	10.3		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.8	0.8	1.2	1.7	3.5	2.8	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1	85.3		8.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.9	9.1	90.9