Preseason Rankings
Oregon
Pac-12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#17
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.5#242
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
#1 Seed 5.0% 5.0% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 11.3% 24.3% 6.8%
Top 4 Seed 23.8% 24.3% 6.8%
Top 6 Seed 35.5% 24.3% 6.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.5% 72.2% 42.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.2% 63.1% 33.4%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 8.0
.500 or above 95.5% 95.9% 82.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 91.4% 78.3%
Conference Champion 33.8% 34.3% 14.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 1.7%
First Four6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
First Round68.7% 69.4% 40.5%
Second Round46.8% 47.4% 25.0%
Sweet Sixteen24.1% 24.5% 11.4%
Elite Eight12.2% 12.4% 4.1%
Final Four6.3% 6.4% 1.7%
Championship Game3.3% 3.3% 0.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 97.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.3 - 2.41.3 - 2.4
Quad 1b2.1 - 2.03.4 - 4.4
Quad 24.9 - 2.38.3 - 6.7
Quad 36.7 - 1.214.9 - 7.9
Quad 47.9 - 0.222.9 - 8.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 246   Portland St. W 87-69 97%    
  Nov 09, 2018 174   Eastern Washington W 78-64 94%    
  Nov 15, 2018 34   Iowa W 78-76 59%    
  Nov 16, 2018 12   Syracuse L 65-67 45%    
  Nov 20, 2018 235   Green Bay W 84-66 96%    
  Nov 26, 2018 243   Texas Southern W 85-67 97%    
  Dec 01, 2018 37   @ Houston W 73-70 49%    
  Dec 08, 2018 253   Nebraska Omaha W 85-66 97%    
  Dec 12, 2018 121   San Diego W 74-64 87%    
  Dec 15, 2018 95   Boise St. W 75-66 84%    
  Dec 18, 2018 352   Florida A&M W 85-54 99.8%   
  Dec 21, 2018 48   @ Baylor W 71-67 52%    
  Dec 29, 2018 95   @ Boise St. W 75-66 67%    
  Jan 05, 2019 82   Oregon St. W 73-65 82%    
  Jan 10, 2019 50   UCLA W 78-74 72%    
  Jan 13, 2019 58   USC W 75-70 73%    
  Jan 17, 2019 66   @ Arizona W 75-69 59%    
  Jan 19, 2019 43   @ Arizona St. W 79-76 51%    
  Jan 24, 2019 42   Washington W 75-72 70%    
  Jan 27, 2019 191   Washington St. W 81-66 93%    
  Jan 31, 2019 87   @ Utah W 72-64 65%    
  Feb 02, 2019 84   @ Colorado W 75-67 65%    
  Feb 06, 2019 198   California W 79-63 94%    
  Feb 10, 2019 108   Stanford W 78-68 85%    
  Feb 16, 2019 82   @ Oregon St. W 73-65 64%    
  Feb 21, 2019 58   @ USC W 75-70 55%    
  Feb 23, 2019 50   @ UCLA W 78-74 53%    
  Feb 28, 2019 43   Arizona St. W 79-76 70%    
  Mar 02, 2019 66   Arizona W 75-69 76%    
  Mar 06, 2019 191   @ Washington St. W 81-66 84%    
  Mar 09, 2019 42   @ Washington W 75-72 51%    
Projected Record 22.9 - 8.1 12.6 - 5.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.9 9.1 8.2 5.8 2.1 33.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.3 6.2 2.6 0.4 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.4 4.1 1.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.4 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 1.2 3.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.8 2.2 3.7 5.5 8.1 10.4 12.0 13.7 13.3 11.7 8.6 5.8 2.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 100.0% 5.8    5.6 0.2
16-2 95.3% 8.2    6.9 1.3 0.0
15-3 77.5% 9.1    6.1 2.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 44.1% 5.9    2.6 2.5 0.7 0.0
13-5 18.8% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.8% 33.8 23.8 7.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 100.0% 64.1% 35.9% 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 5.8% 99.8% 50.1% 49.7% 2.0 2.2 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
16-2 8.6% 99.7% 46.1% 53.6% 3.2 1.2 2.2 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-3 11.7% 98.6% 34.6% 64.1% 4.7 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.9%
14-4 13.3% 95.8% 29.1% 66.7% 6.6 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.6 94.1%
13-5 13.7% 85.7% 23.7% 62.0% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.0 81.2%
12-6 12.0% 75.6% 18.0% 57.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 70.2%
11-7 10.4% 55.2% 12.9% 42.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.6 48.6%
10-8 8.1% 34.3% 8.8% 25.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3 27.9%
9-9 5.5% 17.0% 8.6% 8.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 9.2%
8-10 3.7% 11.0% 7.6% 3.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.7%
7-11 2.2% 3.5% 2.9% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.6%
6-12 1.8% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0%
5-13 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 71.5% 24.5% 47.0% 6.5 5.0 6.3 5.9 6.7 6.0 5.6 5.9 5.9 6.7 7.0 6.9 2.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 28.5 62.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 85.5 14.5