IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Columbia
Ivy League
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.0	#229
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.1	#77
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.4	#155

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.4	#312

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Average Seed	10.3	10.3	10.5

.500 or above	31.7%	44.8%	20.4%
.500 or above in Conference	32.0%	39.7%	25.4%
Conference Champion	3.2%	4.3%	2.3%
Last Place in Conference	23.4%	17.5%	28.5%

First Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
First Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Away) - 46.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.5	0.0 - 0.5
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.3	0.1 - 1.7
Quad 2	0.6 - 3.6	0.6 - 5.3
Quad 3	2.9 - 6.1	3.6 - 11.5
Quad 4	7.0 - 3.9	10.6 - 15.4

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2018	274	@ Marist	W	81-79	46%
Nov 16, 2018	329	Youngstown St.	W	84-77	75%
Nov 17, 2018	226	Florida International	L	76-77	49%
Nov 18, 2018	267	@ Fordham	W	72-70	45%
Dec 02, 2018	239	Delaware	W	74-73	61%
Dec 05, 2018	209	Colgate	L	74-75	57%
Dec 07, 2018	315	Bryant	W	84-79	76%
Dec 09, 2018	133	Iona	L	78-85	29%
Dec 12, 2018	78	@ Boston College	L	74-85	12%
Dec 22, 2018	140	@ Rutgers	L	68-74	21%
Dec 30, 2018	62	@ Northwestern	L	66-79	10%
Jan 02, 2019	269	@ Binghamton	W	74-72	47%
Jan 19, 2019	248	@ Cornell	W	80-79	43%
Jan 26, 2019	248	Cornell	W	80-79	63%
Feb 01, 2019	145	Princeton	L	70-75	42%
Feb 02, 2019	125	Penn	L	72-79	38%
Feb 08, 2019	77	@ Harvard	L	67-78	12%
Feb 09, 2019	276	@ Dartmouth	W	75-73	48%
Feb 15, 2019	122	Yale	L	74-81	36%
Feb 16, 2019	207	Brown	L	81-82	56%
Feb 22, 2019	125	@ Penn	L	72-79	22%
Feb 23, 2019	145	@ Princeton	L	70-75	25%
Mar 01, 2019	207	@ Brown	L	81-82	37%
Mar 02, 2019	122	@ Yale	L	74-81	21%
Mar 08, 2019	276	Dartmouth	W	75-73	66%
Mar 09, 2019	77	Harvard	L	67-78	26%
Projected Record						10.6 - 15.4	5.4 - 8.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ivy League Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st									0.0	0.3	0.9	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0		3.2	1st
2nd								0.0	1.0	2.3	2.3	0.8	0.1				6.5	2nd
3rd							0.1	2.1	4.2	2.8	0.5	0.0					9.8	3rd
4th						0.3	3.2	5.8	3.1	0.3	0.0						12.7	4th
5th				0.0	0.6	4.6	8.0	3.1	0.3								16.5	5th
6th			0.0	1.3	6.0	7.6	2.6	0.2									17.7	6th
7th		0.2	2.7	6.7	6.3	2.1	0.1										18.2	7th
8th	1.5	4.1	5.4	3.5	0.8	0.1											15.4	8th

Total	1.5	4.4	8.1	11.5	13.7	14.7	14.1	11.2	8.6	5.7	3.7	1.8	0.8	0.2	0.0			Total

Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
13-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
12-2	90.4%	0.7		0.5	0.2
11-3	58.4%	1.1		0.6	0.4	0.0
10-4	25.1%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.0
9-5	5.2%	0.3		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0
8-6	0.0%	0.0				0.0		0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	3.2%	3.2		1.6	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	0.0%		94.9%		94.9%	10.4					0.0						0.0	0.0						0.0		94.9%
13-1	0.2%		15.7%		15.7%	8.7							0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0					0.2		15.7%
12-2	0.8%		5.4%		5.4%	11.0										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.7		5.4%
11-3	1.8%		0.7%		0.7%	11.0												0.0	0.0					1.8		0.7%
10-4	3.7%		0.3%		0.3%	11.0												0.0						3.7		0.3%
9-5	5.7%																							5.7
8-6	8.6%																							8.6
7-7	11.2%																							11.2
6-8	14.1%																							14.1
5-9	14.7%																							14.7
4-10	13.7%																							13.7
3-11	11.5%																							11.5
2-12	8.1%																							8.1
1-13	4.4%																							4.4
0-14	1.5%																							1.5

Total	100%		0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	10.3					0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0					99.9		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%