IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Asheville
Big South
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.4	#294
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.6	#105
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.4	#313

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.1	#250

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.2%	6.3%	3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.8	15.6

.500 or above	21.3%	54.5%	20.5%
.500 or above in Conference	44.7%	73.5%	43.9%
Conference Champion	5.2%	9.2%	5.1%
Last Place in Conference	12.7%	3.4%	12.9%

First Four	1.8%	3.5%	1.7%
First Round	2.5%	5.1%	2.4%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.6	0.0 - 1.6
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.3	0.1 - 2.8
Quad 2	0.2 - 2.2	0.3 - 5.0
Quad 3	1.5 - 5.3	1.8 - 10.3
Quad 4	8.3 - 6.6	10.2 - 16.8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2018	38	@ North Carolina St.	L	69-87	2%
Nov 16, 2018	128	@ Northern Kentucky	L	67-77	11%
Nov 17, 2018	221	Coastal Carolina	L	68-72	36%
Nov 18, 2018	291	Manhattan	L	66-67	49%
Nov 25, 2018	123	Furman	L	67-78	25%
Dec 01, 2018	285	@ Tennessee Martin	L	67-68	37%
Dec 04, 2018	13	@ Auburn	L	67-89	2%
Dec 08, 2018	307	Western Carolina	W	72-71	63%
Dec 15, 2018	97	@ Wofford	L	66-78	10%
Dec 18, 2018	337	@ Stetson	W	75-70	57%
Dec 31, 2018	83	@ Vanderbilt	L	64-77	8%
Jan 05, 2019	194	Winthrop	L	73-79	41%
Jan 10, 2019	333	@ Longwood	W	73-69	53%
Jan 12, 2019	240	@ Hampton	L	74-77	30%
Jan 16, 2019	254	Campbell	L	71-73	53%
Jan 19, 2019	149	Radford	L	62-70	32%
Jan 21, 2019	194	@ Winthrop	L	73-79	24%
Jan 26, 2019	255	@ High Point	L	67-69	33%
Jan 30, 2019	334	South Carolina Upstate	W	79-75	73%
Feb 02, 2019	218	@ Gardner-Webb	L	68-72	28%
Feb 07, 2019	319	@ Presbyterian	W	69-67	48%
Feb 09, 2019	232	Charleston Southern	L	68-71	48%
Feb 13, 2019	334	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	79-75	55%
Feb 21, 2019	218	Gardner-Webb	L	68-72	46%
Feb 23, 2019	319	Presbyterian	W	69-67	67%
Feb 27, 2019	232	@ Charleston Southern	L	68-71	31%
Mar 02, 2019	255	High Point	L	67-69	54%
Projected Record						10.2 - 16.8	7.2 - 8.8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big South Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	0.4	1.4	1.6	1.0	0.4	0.1		5.2	1st
2nd										0.1	1.0	2.3	1.9	0.8	0.2	0.0			6.3	2nd
3rd									0.1	1.1	3.4	2.6	0.7	0.0					8.0	3rd
4th								0.1	0.9	4.2	3.2	0.5	0.0						9.0	4th
5th							0.0	0.9	4.4	4.0	0.7	0.0							10.1	5th
6th						0.0	0.8	4.1	4.7	0.9	0.0								10.5	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	4.1	5.3	1.4	0.0									11.4	7th
8th				0.0	0.7	3.5	5.4	1.8	0.0										11.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.6	3.3	4.6	1.9	0.1											10.4	9th
10th		0.1	1.1	3.2	3.7	1.5	0.2	0.0											9.8	10th
11th	0.6	1.4	2.7	2.4	0.8	0.1	0.0												7.9	11th

Total	0.6	1.4	3.8	6.2	8.5	10.1	12.5	12.3	11.6	10.4	8.4	5.9	4.1	2.5	1.2	0.4	0.1			Total

Big South Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-1	99.9%	0.4		0.4	0.0
14-2	86.8%	1.0		0.7	0.3
13-3	64.8%	1.6		0.9	0.6	0.2	0.0
12-4	35.5%	1.4		0.4	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0
11-5	6.7%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	1.2%	0.1			0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	5.2%	5.2		2.7	1.7	0.7	0.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		28.6%	28.6%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-1	0.4%		47.4%	47.4%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2
14-2	1.2%		24.6%	24.6%		14.8														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.9
13-3	2.5%		20.6%	20.6%		15.4															0.0	0.2	0.3	2.0
12-4	4.1%		15.1%	15.1%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	3.5
11-5	5.9%		8.5%	8.5%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.4	5.4
10-6	8.4%		6.0%	6.0%		15.9																0.0	0.5	7.9
9-7	10.4%		2.5%	2.5%		16.0																	0.3	10.2
8-8	11.6%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	11.4
7-9	12.3%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	12.2
6-10	12.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.4
5-11	10.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
4-12	8.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.5
3-13	6.2%																							6.2
2-14	3.8%																							3.8
1-15	1.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.4
0-16	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		3.2%	3.2%	0.0%	15.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	2.4	96.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%