Preseason Rankings
West Virginia
Big 12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#11
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#139
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 2.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 8.0% 9.2% 2.6%
Top 2 Seed 17.7% 39.7% 15.7%
Top 4 Seed 35.4% 39.7% 15.7%
Top 6 Seed 48.0% 39.7% 15.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.7% 82.8% 59.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.2% 79.8% 55.6%
Average Seed 5.4 5.2 6.7
.500 or above 91.0% 93.8% 78.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.5% 78.7% 60.8%
Conference Champion 17.9% 19.8% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.5% 6.6%
First Four2.6% 2.3% 4.2%
First Round77.6% 81.9% 58.1%
Second Round58.5% 62.8% 39.1%
Sweet Sixteen33.7% 36.8% 19.5%
Elite Eight17.9% 19.9% 9.0%
Final Four8.9% 10.1% 3.5%
Championship Game4.4% 5.0% 1.6%
National Champion2.3% 2.7% 0.8%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 82.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3.2 - 5.33.2 - 5.3
Quad 1b3.3 - 1.96.5 - 7.3
Quad 25.2 - 1.511.7 - 8.8
Quad 35.4 - 0.617.1 - 9.4
Quad 44.4 - 0.121.4 - 9.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 65   Buffalo W 84-77 82%    
  Nov 15, 2018 183   Monmouth W 83-67 93%    
  Nov 16, 2018 60   Western Kentucky W 80-74 71%    
  Nov 18, 2018 106   Saint Joseph's W 80-69 84%    
  Nov 24, 2018 120   Valparaiso W 79-67 91%    
  Nov 28, 2018 110   Rider W 86-75 90%    
  Dec 01, 2018 329   Youngstown St. W 90-64 99%    
  Dec 04, 2018 16   Florida W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 08, 2018 167   Pittsburgh W 77-62 95%    
  Dec 16, 2018 103   Rhode Island W 78-67 83%    
  Dec 22, 2018 146   Jacksonville St. W 77-63 92%    
  Dec 30, 2018 185   Lehigh W 86-70 95%    
  Jan 02, 2019 29   Texas Tech W 72-69 71%    
  Jan 05, 2019 26   @ Texas W 71-68 49%    
  Jan 09, 2019 14   @ Kansas St. W 71-70 42%    
  Jan 12, 2019 74   Oklahoma St. W 78-70 83%    
  Jan 15, 2019 28   @ TCU W 78-75 51%    
  Jan 19, 2019 1   Kansas L 73-78 45%    
  Jan 21, 2019 48   Baylor W 74-69 77%    
  Jan 26, 2019 9   @ Tennessee L 71-72 36%    
  Jan 30, 2019 30   @ Iowa St. W 78-74 52%    
  Feb 02, 2019 53   Oklahoma W 85-79 77%    
  Feb 04, 2019 29   @ Texas Tech W 72-69 52%    
  Feb 09, 2019 26   Texas W 71-68 69%    
  Feb 16, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 73-78 27%    
  Feb 18, 2019 14   Kansas St. W 71-70 62%    
  Feb 23, 2019 48   @ Baylor W 74-69 58%    
  Feb 26, 2019 28   TCU W 78-75 70%    
  Mar 02, 2019 53   @ Oklahoma W 85-79 59%    
  Mar 06, 2019 30   Iowa St. W 78-74 70%    
  Mar 09, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-70 66%    
Projected Record 21.4 - 9.6 10.8 - 7.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.2 4.2 4.8 3.7 1.8 0.5 17.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 6.3 3.9 1.6 0.2 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.0 5.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.1 8.2 9.5 10.6 12.0 11.6 10.7 8.5 6.4 3.9 1.8 0.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 95.1% 3.7    3.2 0.5
15-3 74.4% 4.8    3.6 1.2 0.1
14-4 48.9% 4.2    2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 20.7% 2.2    0.7 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 12.1 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.9% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.5 2.4 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.4% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 2.1 2.0 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.5% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.8 1.2 2.8 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.7% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 3.7 0.4 2.0 2.8 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.6% 99.7% 15.0% 84.7% 5.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.6 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7%
11-7 12.0% 98.2% 12.3% 85.9% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.9 1.8 2.7 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.9%
10-8 10.6% 93.6% 10.8% 82.8% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 92.8%
9-9 9.5% 81.0% 7.3% 73.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.1 1.8 79.5%
8-10 8.2% 50.2% 5.2% 45.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 47.5%
7-11 6.1% 22.1% 3.5% 18.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 19.3%
6-12 4.3% 7.2% 3.2% 3.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.1%
5-13 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.1%
4-14 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 78.7% 14.0% 64.6% 5.4 8.0 9.7 9.1 8.6 7.4 5.2 8.2 7.1 6.4 5.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.3 75.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9