Lafayette
Patriot League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#295
Achievement Rating-8.3#288
Pace69.7#158
Improvement+3.7#40

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#231
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#297
Layup/Dunks-3.9#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#24
Freethrows-2.9#329
Improvement+1.1#126

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#322
First Shot-6.0#332
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#156
Layups/Dunks-2.6#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#313
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
Freethrows-0.7#229
Improvement+2.5#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.5% 13.5% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.9% 12.4% 49.1%
First Four1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 310   @ St. Peter's L 86-93 44%     0 - 1 -13.0 +4.6 -16.8
  Nov 10, 2018 198   @ La Salle W 77-76 22%     1 - 1 +1.5 +6.1 -4.6
  Nov 13, 2018 132   @ Penn L 61-91 12%     1 - 2 -24.7 -8.2 -16.7
  Nov 18, 2018 262   St. Francis Brooklyn L 72-84 54%     1 - 3 -20.6 -10.5 -8.8
  Nov 25, 2018 250   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-76 31%     2 - 3 +1.5 +6.2 -4.6
  Nov 28, 2018 210   Cornell L 58-63 43%     2 - 4 -10.7 -18.2 +7.5
  Dec 02, 2018 255   Sacred Heart L 62-64 53%     2 - 5 -10.3 -17.2 +7.0
  Dec 05, 2018 83   @ Connecticut L 63-90 7%     2 - 6 -18.2 -9.1 -7.8
  Dec 08, 2018 211   @ Quinnipiac L 77-88 24%     2 - 7 -11.3 +1.3 -12.5
  Dec 21, 2018 164   Princeton L 79-81 33%     2 - 8 -4.9 +2.2 -7.0
  Jan 02, 2019 158   @ Lehigh L 83-86 16%     2 - 9 0 - 1 +0.1 +8.8 -8.8
  Jan 05, 2019 246   @ Army L 69-77 31%     2 - 10 0 - 2 -10.3 -4.4 -5.6
  Jan 09, 2019 281   Loyola Maryland W 85-70 58%     3 - 10 1 - 2 +5.5 +2.9 +2.0
  Jan 12, 2019 234   @ Holy Cross L 70-77 29%     3 - 11 1 - 3 -8.7 +6.1 -15.8
  Jan 16, 2019 301   Navy L 77-85 62%     3 - 12 1 - 4 -18.7 +0.5 -19.2
  Jan 19, 2019 208   @ American W 84-79 24%     4 - 12 2 - 4 +5.0 +4.0 +0.5
  Jan 23, 2019 153   @ Colgate L 47-57 15%     4 - 13 2 - 5 -6.7 -23.5 +16.1
  Jan 26, 2019 246   Army L 63-69 51%     4 - 14 2 - 6 -13.8 -12.2 -1.5
  Jan 30, 2019 158   Lehigh L 86-93 31%     4 - 15 2 - 7 -9.5 -2.2 -6.4
  Feb 02, 2019 146   Bucknell L 66-94 27%     4 - 16 2 - 8 -29.2 -14.3 -12.1
  Feb 06, 2019 232   @ Boston University W 79-72 28%     5 - 16 3 - 8 +5.3 +13.7 -7.5
  Feb 10, 2019 234   Holy Cross W 69-67 49%     6 - 16 4 - 8 -5.2 -4.2 -1.0
  Feb 13, 2019 301   @ Navy W 80-74 41%     7 - 16 5 - 8 +0.8 +5.6 -4.8
  Feb 17, 2019 281   @ Loyola Maryland L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 20, 2019 208   American L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 24, 2019 146   @ Bucknell L 71-83 13%    
  Feb 27, 2019 232   Boston University L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 02, 2019 153   Colgate L 71-76 32%    
Projected Record 8.7 - 19.3 6.7 - 11.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 2.0 3.4 0.4 5.8 4th
5th 1.0 10.1 1.5 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 11.5 5.3 0.0 16.9 6th
7th 1.6 16.3 0.5 18.4 7th
8th 14.5 3.8 0.0 18.4 8th
9th 3.5 12.5 0.2 16.2 9th
10th 9.0 2.7 0.0 11.7 10th
Total 12.5 31.4 32.8 17.9 5.0 0.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 5.0% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.8
8-10 17.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 17.5
7-11 32.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 32.5
6-12 31.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 31.2
5-13 12.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 15.7 31.8 68.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 7.5%