Florida
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#20
Achievement Rating+8.9#77
Pace63.6#324
Improvement+3.6#11

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#73
First Shot+2.5#104
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#80
Layup/Dunks+0.3#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#106
Freethrows-2.0#276
Improvement+0.4#136

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#6
First Shot+4.1#53
After Offensive Rebounds+5.1#3
Layups/Dunks+3.0#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
Freethrows+2.1#80
Improvement+3.1#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 10.0% 10.3% 2.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.3% 66.0% 44.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.5% 62.2% 40.8%
Average Seed 7.6 7.5 8.6
.500 or above 90.6% 91.1% 73.1%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 84.7% 73.4%
Conference Champion 10.2% 10.4% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four6.6% 6.6% 7.2%
First Round62.7% 63.4% 41.7%
Second Round40.6% 41.2% 23.4%
Sweet Sixteen18.2% 18.5% 8.6%
Elite Eight8.2% 8.4% 3.6%
Final Four3.5% 3.6% 1.4%
Championship Game1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.1%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 96.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 15   @ Florida St. L 60-81 35%     0 - 1 -3.8 -5.1 +2.0
  Nov 09, 2018 232   Charleston Southern W 76-46 96%     1 - 1 +22.7 -0.6 +22.8
  Nov 14, 2018 258   La Salle W 82-69 97%     2 - 1 +4.4 +2.8 +1.5
  Nov 21, 2018 25   Oklahoma L 60-65 52%     2 - 2 +7.9 -4.5 +12.3
  Nov 22, 2018 97   Stanford W 72-49 78%     3 - 2 +28.4 +11.6 +19.0
  Nov 23, 2018 37   Butler L 54-61 57%     3 - 3 +4.6 -2.0 +5.0
  Nov 27, 2018 181   North Florida W 98-66 94%     4 - 3 +27.6 +22.2 +5.9
  Dec 04, 2018 38   West Virginia W 66-56 58%     5 - 3 +21.3 -6.0 +26.5
  Dec 08, 2018 7   Michigan St. L 59-63 43%     5 - 4 +11.3 +0.1 +10.6
  Dec 18, 2018 215   Mercer W 72-53 97%    
  Dec 22, 2018 242   Florida Gulf Coast W 77-59 96%    
  Dec 29, 2018 37   Butler W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 05, 2019 117   South Carolina W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 09, 2019 58   @ Arkansas W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 12, 2019 11   Tennessee L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 15, 2019 18   @ Mississippi St. L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 19, 2019 111   @ Georgia W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 22, 2019 86   Texas A&M W 72-61 83%    
  Jan 26, 2019 30   @ TCU L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 30, 2019 65   Mississippi W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 02, 2019 16   Kentucky W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 05, 2019 9   @ Auburn L 65-73 24%    
  Feb 09, 2019 11   @ Tennessee L 63-69 28%    
  Feb 13, 2019 76   Vanderbilt W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 16, 2019 62   @ Alabama W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 20, 2019 53   @ LSU W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 23, 2019 81   Missouri W 68-58 82%    
  Feb 27, 2019 76   @ Vanderbilt W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 02, 2019 111   Georgia W 73-61 85%    
  Mar 06, 2019 53   LSU W 73-66 74%    
  Mar 09, 2019 16   @ Kentucky L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 19.1 - 11.9 11.1 - 6.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 10.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.4 5.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.9 6.2 5.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.2 5.0 1.1 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.6 4.6 1.3 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.5 7.3 10.7 13.5 15.3 15.0 12.4 9.0 5.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.2% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 87.8% 2.1    1.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 62.5% 3.3    1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 30.7% 2.8    0.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 5.3 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 99.8% 29.7% 70.1% 3.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 5.4% 99.0% 23.2% 75.7% 4.3 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
14-4 9.0% 97.2% 19.3% 77.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.6%
13-5 12.4% 93.7% 15.3% 78.4% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 92.6%
12-6 15.0% 86.7% 11.5% 75.2% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 85.0%
11-7 15.3% 72.9% 7.5% 65.4% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 70.7%
10-8 13.5% 55.3% 4.4% 50.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.8 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.0 53.3%
9-9 10.7% 35.3% 3.0% 32.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.9 33.3%
8-10 7.3% 12.2% 2.3% 9.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.4 10.2%
7-11 4.5% 3.5% 1.7% 1.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3 1.9%
6-12 2.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.1%
5-13 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.3% 9.9% 55.4% 7.6 0.5 1.6 3.3 4.6 5.8 7.3 7.7 8.4 8.1 7.7 6.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.7 61.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 77.3 22.7