Florida
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#29
Achievement Rating+10.6#50
Pace62.2#331
Improvement+0.7#153

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#82
First Shot+2.5#104
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#105
Layup/Dunks-0.5#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#51
Freethrows-1.0#252
Improvement+0.8#151

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#10
First Shot+7.6#14
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#25
Layups/Dunks+4.2#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#135
Freethrows+0.5#140
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.1% 91.1% 73.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.3% 90.6% 72.3%
Average Seed 9.4 8.8 9.7
.500 or above 96.9% 99.8% 95.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 96.3% 74.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.2% 7.7% 16.0%
First Round73.8% 88.0% 66.7%
Second Round39.1% 49.1% 34.1%
Sweet Sixteen10.8% 13.6% 9.5%
Elite Eight4.3% 5.6% 3.6%
Final Four1.3% 1.8% 1.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 33.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 18   @ Florida St. L 60-81 30%     0 - 1 -2.8 -4.9 +2.6
  Nov 09, 2018 214   Charleston Southern W 76-46 95%     1 - 1 +24.0 -1.4 +24.9
  Nov 14, 2018 198   La Salle W 82-69 94%     2 - 1 +8.0 +7.5 +0.4
  Nov 21, 2018 34   Oklahoma L 60-65 55%     2 - 2 +6.6 -4.5 +11.1
  Nov 22, 2018 92   Stanford W 72-49 76%     3 - 2 +28.4 +9.6 +21.0
  Nov 23, 2018 46   Butler L 54-61 63%     3 - 3 +2.4 -3.4 +4.3
  Nov 27, 2018 212   North Florida W 98-66 95%     4 - 3 +26.1 +22.7 +3.9
  Dec 04, 2018 105   West Virginia W 66-56 78%     5 - 3 +14.6 -9.9 +23.7
  Dec 08, 2018 4   Michigan St. L 59-63 33%     5 - 4 +13.5 +3.0 +9.9
  Dec 18, 2018 192   Mercer W 71-63 94%     6 - 4 +3.3 +0.2 +3.8
  Dec 22, 2018 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 77-56 93%     7 - 4 +16.8 +4.2 +12.9
  Dec 29, 2018 46   Butler W 77-43 72%     8 - 4 +40.7 +18.8 +27.4
  Jan 05, 2019 74   South Carolina L 69-71 80%     8 - 5 0 - 1 +1.9 -3.4 +5.3
  Jan 09, 2019 58   @ Arkansas W 57-51 58%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +16.7 -8.6 +25.5
  Jan 12, 2019 7   Tennessee L 67-78 35%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +5.7 +2.7 +2.3
  Jan 15, 2019 23   @ Mississippi St. L 68-71 34%     9 - 7 1 - 3 +14.1 +10.9 +2.9
  Jan 19, 2019 113   @ Georgia W 62-52 72%     10 - 7 2 - 3 +16.8 +4.3 +14.6
  Jan 22, 2019 85   Texas A&M W 81-72 82%     11 - 7 3 - 3 +12.2 +12.5 -0.1
  Jan 26, 2019 37   @ TCU L 50-55 45%     11 - 8 +9.0 -9.3 +17.7
  Jan 30, 2019 38   Mississippi W 90-86 67%     12 - 8 4 - 3 +12.2 +11.1 +0.8
  Feb 02, 2019 5   Kentucky L 54-65 34%     12 - 9 4 - 4 +6.2 -4.5 +9.5
  Feb 05, 2019 14   @ Auburn L 62-76 30%     12 - 10 4 - 5 +4.4 +0.7 +2.8
  Feb 09, 2019 7   @ Tennessee L 61-73 19%     12 - 11 4 - 6 +10.2 +0.3 +8.9
  Feb 13, 2019 119   Vanderbilt W 66-57 86%     13 - 11 5 - 6 +10.0 -4.4 +14.6
  Feb 16, 2019 44   @ Alabama W 71-53 52%     14 - 11 6 - 6 +30.3 +15.7 +17.6
  Feb 20, 2019 22   @ LSU L 68-72 33%    
  Feb 23, 2019 89   Missouri W 66-56 83%    
  Feb 27, 2019 119   @ Vanderbilt W 67-61 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 113   Georgia W 73-61 87%    
  Mar 06, 2019 22   LSU W 70-69 56%    
  Mar 09, 2019 5   @ Kentucky L 59-69 17%    
Projected Record 17.5 - 13.5 9.5 - 8.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 6.0 1.6 9.1 4th
5th 0.4 9.7 7.2 0.3 17.6 5th
6th 0.0 4.3 14.2 1.6 0.0 20.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 13.0 6.6 0.1 20.6 7th
8th 0.2 5.6 11.6 0.7 18.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 7.3 2.4 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 0.9 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.3 3.3 14.7 31.8 32.7 14.9 2.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.3% 99.6% 10.3% 89.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 14.9% 97.5% 6.7% 90.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 4.1 3.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.4 97.3%
10-8 32.7% 91.8% 3.5% 88.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 5.7 8.6 8.2 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 91.5%
9-9 31.8% 80.8% 2.6% 78.2% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 5.7 8.0 6.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.1 80.2%
8-10 14.7% 43.3% 2.1% 41.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 8.4 42.1%
7-11 3.3% 6.9% 1.2% 5.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 5.8%
6-12 0.3% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 79.1% 3.5% 75.6% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.3 13.3 18.9 19.4 12.8 4.9 0.8 0.0 20.9 78.3%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.9 2.1 34.6 38.5 20.5 3.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 6.4 3.6 14.2 37.3 34.0 7.8 2.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 99.5% 7.1 0.6 5.2 21.4 37.7 24.7 8.9 0.7 0.4
Lose Out 0.1%