Towson
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#253
Achievement Rating-6.8#266
Pace61.1#342
Improvement+3.3#52

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#251
First Shot-4.7#298
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#40
Layup/Dunks-4.7#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#321
Freethrows-0.4#213
Improvement+0.9#146

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#247
First Shot-2.2#240
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#242
Layups/Dunks-0.6#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#312
Freethrows-0.1#194
Improvement+2.4#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.1% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.2% 47.3% 4.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 0.0% 3.5%
First Four1.1% 1.6% 1.1%
First Round0.8% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 3   @ Virginia L 42-73 1%     0 - 1 -6.3 -6.8 -7.5
  Nov 16, 2018 161   Pepperdine L 65-74 30%     0 - 2 -9.1 -14.0 +5.6
  Nov 17, 2018 168   Florida Atlantic L 71-85 31%     0 - 3 -14.3 +9.4 -25.3
  Nov 18, 2018 194   North Dakota St. L 51-76 37%     0 - 4 -27.0 -22.9 -5.4
  Nov 25, 2018 281   Loyola Maryland W 85-69 65%     1 - 4 +6.5 +8.6 -1.6
  Nov 30, 2018 81   Vermont L 64-70 20%     1 - 5 -2.6 +0.6 -4.0
  Dec 05, 2018 256   @ George Washington L 64-68 40%     1 - 6 -6.8 -1.2 -5.9
  Dec 08, 2018 334   Morgan St. L 69-74 75%     1 - 7 -17.3 -9.8 -7.4
  Dec 11, 2018 219   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 80-76 32%     2 - 7 +3.4 +2.2 +0.8
  Dec 21, 2018 290   Tulane W 73-55 57%     3 - 7 +10.7 +4.8 +7.4
  Dec 22, 2018 198   La Salle L 51-57 38%     3 - 8 -8.3 -16.3 +7.4
  Dec 28, 2018 316   @ Elon W 77-60 56%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +10.1 +8.9 +2.9
  Dec 30, 2018 204   @ William & Mary L 61-71 29%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -9.8 -5.0 -6.2
  Jan 03, 2019 123   College of Charleston L 55-67 28%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -11.5 -10.2 -3.2
  Jan 05, 2019 252   UNC Wilmington L 61-67 61%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -14.2 -15.8 +1.1
  Jan 09, 2019 210   Cornell L 74-86 51%     4 - 12 -17.7 -0.8 -17.1
  Jan 12, 2019 258   @ James Madison L 65-74 40%     4 - 13 1 - 4 -11.9 +0.5 -13.8
  Jan 17, 2019 243   @ Drexel L 66-72 37%     4 - 14 1 - 5 -8.1 -6.7 -1.8
  Jan 19, 2019 249   @ Delaware W 64-63 38%     5 - 14 2 - 5 -1.4 +1.1 -2.3
  Jan 24, 2019 101   Northeastern W 75-72 24%     6 - 14 3 - 5 +5.1 +6.4 -1.1
  Jan 26, 2019 87   Hofstra L 61-84 21%     6 - 15 3 - 6 -19.9 -9.7 -12.2
  Jan 31, 2019 252   @ UNC Wilmington W 77-76 39%     7 - 15 4 - 6 -1.7 +5.0 -6.5
  Feb 02, 2019 123   @ College of Charleston L 53-54 14%     7 - 16 4 - 7 +5.0 -4.6 +9.3
  Feb 09, 2019 258   James Madison W 66-59 61%     8 - 16 5 - 7 -1.4 -1.0 +0.8
  Feb 14, 2019 249   Delaware L 71-78 60%     8 - 17 5 - 8 -14.9 -16.8 +2.7
  Feb 16, 2019 243   Drexel W 92-77 59%     9 - 17 6 - 8 +7.4 +7.3 -0.7
  Feb 21, 2019 87   @ Hofstra L 65-79 9%    
  Feb 23, 2019 101   @ Northeastern L 61-74 11%    
  Feb 28, 2019 204   William & Mary L 69-70 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 316   Elon W 70-63 75%    
Projected Record 10.5 - 19.5 7.5 - 10.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 10.6 6.1 0.5 17.2 4th
5th 4.3 22.6 1.7 0.0 28.5 5th
6th 0.7 24.9 5.9 0.0 31.5 6th
7th 3.7 11.7 0.2 15.5 7th
8th 5.0 0.9 5.9 8th
9th 1.4 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 10.7 41.8 39.2 7.7 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 7.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.6
8-10 39.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7 38.5
7-11 41.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.3 41.5
6-12 10.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 15.6 5.0 35.0 60.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 5.6%