Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#86
Achievement Rating+5.4#114
Pace65.4#293
Improvement-0.6#228

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#33
First Shot+7.9#15
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#248
Layup/Dunks-1.6#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#12
Freethrows+2.1#69
Improvement-0.2#180

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#186
First Shot-1.8#237
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#100
Layups/Dunks+0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#235
Freethrows+1.7#93
Improvement-0.5#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.1% 42.1% 35.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 3.1% 0.9%
Average Seed 12.7 12.3 13.0
.500 or above 97.5% 99.2% 96.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.0% 98.0%
Conference Champion 51.9% 56.7% 48.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 1.5% 0.6%
First Round37.6% 41.3% 34.7%
Second Round8.1% 10.1% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.7% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Away) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 186   Boston University L 74-77 83%     0 - 1 -7.5 +2.8 -10.3
  Nov 09, 2018 93   @ Harvard W 81-71 39%     1 - 1 +18.6 +16.3 +2.6
  Nov 15, 2018 62   Alabama W 68-52 42%     2 - 1 +23.9 +10.7 +15.8
  Nov 16, 2018 11   Virginia Tech L 60-88 15%     2 - 2 -10.9 +1.6 -16.2
  Nov 18, 2018 81   Davidson L 59-71 48%     2 - 3 -5.6 -9.3 +3.2
  Nov 24, 2018 81   @ Davidson L 69-78 37%     2 - 4 +0.4 -0.2 +0.6
  Nov 28, 2018 160   @ Bucknell W 96-78 61%     3 - 4 +21.0 +25.8 -4.7
  Dec 01, 2018 183   Eastern Michigan W 81-67 83%     4 - 4 +9.6 +20.3 -8.2
  Dec 04, 2018 31   @ Syracuse L 49-72 19%     4 - 5 -7.8 -6.4 -5.2
  Dec 08, 2018 235   Oakland W 92-83 89%     5 - 5 +1.5 +7.4 -6.3
  Dec 16, 2018 109   @ Vermont L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 21, 2018 152   St. Bonaventure W 74-66 78%    
  Dec 28, 2018 251   Drexel W 85-71 91%    
  Dec 30, 2018 219   Delaware W 79-67 87%    
  Jan 05, 2019 119   @ Hofstra L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 10, 2019 304   @ Elon W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 12, 2019 198   @ William & Mary W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 17, 2019 123   College of Charleston W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 19, 2019 218   UNC Wilmington W 85-73 86%    
  Jan 24, 2019 282   @ Towson W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 26, 2019 233   @ James Madison W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 02, 2019 119   Hofstra W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 07, 2019 198   William & Mary W 83-72 84%    
  Feb 09, 2019 304   Elon W 82-65 94%    
  Feb 14, 2019 218   @ UNC Wilmington W 82-76 71%    
  Feb 16, 2019 123   @ College of Charleston L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 21, 2019 233   James Madison W 77-64 88%    
  Feb 23, 2019 282   Towson W 78-62 92%    
  Feb 28, 2019 219   @ Delaware W 76-70 71%    
  Mar 02, 2019 251   @ Drexel W 82-74 77%    
Projected Record 20.0 - 10.0 13.8 - 4.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.0 9.8 14.4 13.0 7.5 2.3 51.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.8 8.5 7.4 3.0 0.5 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 7.4 11.0 15.4 17.8 17.4 13.5 7.5 2.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
17-1 100.0% 7.5    7.4 0.1
16-2 96.6% 13.0    11.7 1.3 0.0
15-3 82.7% 14.4    10.7 3.6 0.2
14-4 55.2% 9.8    5.2 3.9 0.7 0.0
13-5 26.2% 4.0    1.4 1.9 0.7 0.1
12-6 6.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 51.9% 51.9 38.7 11.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.3% 70.8% 60.9% 9.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 25.4%
17-1 7.5% 62.0% 56.6% 5.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 2.9 12.4%
16-2 13.5% 52.7% 50.4% 2.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.4 4.7%
15-3 17.4% 44.7% 43.8% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.4 0.8 0.0 9.6 1.5%
14-4 17.8% 38.0% 37.7% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 11.0 0.4%
13-5 15.4% 31.2% 31.1% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.6 0.1%
12-6 11.0% 25.7% 25.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 8.2
11-7 7.4% 20.7% 20.7% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 5.8
10-8 4.0% 16.2% 16.2% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 3.4
9-9 2.2% 13.1% 13.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.9
8-10 1.0% 8.8% 8.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
7-11 0.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.1% 37.0% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 4.1 11.0 12.1 7.3 2.1 0.2 61.9 1.8%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 10.0 0.4 0.9 1.7 4.7 12.4 7.1 23.6 36.2 11.7 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 40.4% 10.8 0.9 3.1 1.3 7.1 15.1 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 30.2% 10.8 2.3 2.3 0.8 1.6 12.4 8.5 2.3