Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#94
Achievement Rating+5.5#102
Pace66.6#245
Improvement+0.2#178

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#59
First Shot+7.1#21
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#341
Layup/Dunks-0.3#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#20
Freethrows+3.0#19
Improvement-4.2#325

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#141
First Shot+0.6#152
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#133
Layups/Dunks-1.1#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows+1.4#82
Improvement+4.4#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.3% 33.1% 27.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.6 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 5.0% 9.0% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.3% 33.1% 27.8%
Second Round4.7% 5.5% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 242   Boston University L 74-77 88%     0 - 1 -10.5 -2.3 -8.2
  Nov 09, 2018 119   @ Harvard W 81-71 46%     1 - 1 +16.2 +15.7 +0.8
  Nov 15, 2018 45   Alabama W 68-52 34%     2 - 1 +25.5 +10.7 +17.5
  Nov 16, 2018 15   Virginia Tech L 60-88 16%     2 - 2 -12.4 +0.9 -17.0
  Nov 18, 2018 80   Davidson L 59-71 46%     2 - 3 -5.7 -7.8 +1.6
  Nov 24, 2018 80   @ Davidson L 69-78 36%     2 - 4 +0.0 +1.1 -1.2
  Nov 28, 2018 143   @ Bucknell W 96-78 53%     3 - 4 +22.4 +25.7 -3.1
  Dec 01, 2018 145   Eastern Michigan W 81-67 73%     4 - 4 +12.9 +22.4 -7.0
  Dec 04, 2018 41   @ Syracuse L 49-72 21%     4 - 5 -9.4 -6.5 -6.8
  Dec 08, 2018 224   Oakland W 92-83 86%     5 - 5 +2.5 +9.7 -7.5
  Dec 16, 2018 83   @ Vermont L 70-75 36%     5 - 6 +3.8 -3.4 +7.6
  Dec 21, 2018 144   St. Bonaventure W 64-59 73%     6 - 6 +3.9 +0.9 +3.7
  Dec 28, 2018 235   Drexel W 93-83 87%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +2.8 +11.4 -8.8
  Dec 30, 2018 246   Delaware L 80-82 88%     7 - 7 1 - 1 -9.7 -5.0 -4.6
  Jan 05, 2019 74   @ Hofstra L 72-75 35%     7 - 8 1 - 2 +6.3 +6.1 -0.2
  Jan 10, 2019 315   @ Elon W 81-70 86%     8 - 8 2 - 2 +4.4 -4.3 +7.4
  Jan 12, 2019 207   @ William & Mary W 90-70 69%     9 - 8 3 - 2 +20.0 +16.5 +3.7
  Jan 17, 2019 128   College of Charleston W 69-60 68%     10 - 8 4 - 2 +9.3 -4.1 +13.4
  Jan 19, 2019 268   UNC Wilmington W 88-71 90%     11 - 8 5 - 2 +8.2 +8.7 +0.0
  Jan 24, 2019 264   @ Towson L 72-75 79%     11 - 9 5 - 3 -6.2 +2.6 -9.1
  Jan 26, 2019 262   @ James Madison W 78-68 79%     12 - 9 6 - 3 +6.9 +6.3 +1.0
  Feb 02, 2019 74   Hofstra W 75-61 55%     13 - 9 7 - 3 +17.8 -0.5 +18.5
  Feb 07, 2019 207   William & Mary W 72-60 84%     14 - 9 8 - 3 +6.6 -4.5 +11.2
  Feb 09, 2019 315   Elon W 72-60 94%     15 - 9 9 - 3 +0.0 -11.7 +10.8
  Feb 14, 2019 268   @ UNC Wilmington W 81-77 79%     16 - 9 10 - 3 +0.6 +2.5 -1.9
  Feb 16, 2019 128   @ College of Charleston L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 21, 2019 262   James Madison W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 23, 2019 264   Towson W 74-60 91%    
  Feb 28, 2019 246   @ Delaware W 74-66 76%    
  Mar 02, 2019 235   @ Drexel W 80-73 73%    
Projected Record 19.8 - 10.2 13.8 - 4.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 5.0 1st
2nd 0.1 4.6 26.4 40.1 19.5 90.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.2 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.1 7.9 26.5 41.3 23.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 16.2% 3.8    0.6 3.2
14-4 2.9% 1.2    0.1 1.1
13-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 5.0% 5.0 0.7 4.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 23.2% 36.1% 36.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 2.3 0.1 0.0 14.8
14-4 41.3% 31.2% 31.2% 13.1 0.1 2.1 7.6 3.0 0.1 0.0 28.4
13-5 26.5% 26.7% 26.7% 13.5 0.3 3.1 3.3 0.3 19.4
12-6 7.9% 23.0% 23.0% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.0
11-7 1.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.3% 30.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.8 13.4 7.6 0.8 0.0 69.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.4% 100.0% 12.1 0.2 1.5 17.7 51.9 26.9 1.7 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.7%