Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#116
Achievement Rating+5.6#111
Pace67.9#231
Improvement+1.1#96

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#36
First Shot+5.3#39
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#117
Layup/Dunks-1.2#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#173
Freethrows+2.7#52
Improvement+2.7#21

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#240
First Shot-4.5#315
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#43
Layups/Dunks+0.5#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#240
Freethrows+2.7#46
Improvement-1.6#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.3% 26.3% 21.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 96.9% 94.6%
Conference Champion 30.1% 33.3% 26.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round24.1% 26.0% 21.8%
Second Round3.7% 4.1% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Away) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 340   Mount St. Mary's W 79-61 96%     1 - 0 +1.8 -3.4 +4.4
  Nov 11, 2018 126   @ Marshall L 72-76 42%     1 - 1 +2.2 -0.6 +2.9
  Nov 14, 2018 318   N.C. A&T W 92-72 93%     2 - 1 +7.3 +8.7 -2.0
  Nov 16, 2018 30   @ Maryland L 69-80 14%     2 - 2 +4.4 +9.6 -6.0
  Nov 21, 2018 165   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-71 76%     3 - 2 +5.6 +5.6 -0.2
  Nov 24, 2018 92   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-69 32%     3 - 3 +6.8 +0.1 +6.9
  Nov 28, 2018 265   Siena W 94-86 88%     4 - 3 -1.0 +10.2 -11.4
  Dec 01, 2018 337   @ Kennesaw St. W 78-52 89%     5 - 3 +16.4 +1.2 +14.7
  Dec 05, 2018 305   Monmouth W 75-73 91%     6 - 3 -9.0 +3.9 -12.8
  Dec 08, 2018 124   Rider W 89-73 64%     7 - 3 +16.3 +22.5 -4.9
  Dec 10, 2018 320   @ Manhattan W 80-50 84%     8 - 3 +23.3 +18.8 +7.9
  Dec 19, 2018 167   @ Stony Brook W 76-75 56%    
  Dec 28, 2018 218   Delaware W 80-70 83%    
  Dec 30, 2018 249   Drexel W 86-74 87%    
  Jan 05, 2019 91   Northeastern W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 10, 2019 194   @ William & Mary W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 12, 2019 304   @ Elon W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 17, 2019 239   UNC Wilmington W 87-75 86%    
  Jan 19, 2019 113   College of Charleston W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 24, 2019 232   @ James Madison W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 26, 2019 284   @ Towson W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 02, 2019 91   @ Northeastern L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 07, 2019 304   Elon W 83-68 91%    
  Feb 09, 2019 194   William & Mary W 84-75 79%    
  Feb 14, 2019 113   @ College of Charleston L 71-74 37%    
  Feb 16, 2019 239   @ UNC Wilmington W 84-78 70%    
  Feb 21, 2019 284   Towson W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 23, 2019 232   James Madison W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 28, 2019 249   @ Drexel W 83-77 71%    
  Mar 02, 2019 218   @ Delaware W 77-73 66%    
Projected Record 21.4 - 8.6 12.8 - 5.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 6.8 8.8 7.5 3.3 0.8 30.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.2 9.4 8.8 3.4 0.4 28.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.2 7.8 4.5 1.0 0.1 21.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.9 3.5 1.4 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.4 7.9 11.4 14.8 16.5 16.6 12.3 7.9 3.3 0.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.3    3.3 0.1
16-2 95.0% 7.5    6.5 1.0 0.0
15-3 72.2% 8.8    6.0 2.6 0.2
14-4 40.9% 6.8    3.3 3.0 0.5 0.0
13-5 14.7% 2.4    0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.1% 30.1 20.6 8.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 64.9% 58.4% 6.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 15.6%
17-1 3.3% 49.5% 46.5% 3.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 1.7 5.6%
16-2 7.9% 41.4% 40.2% 1.3% 12.3 0.1 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.2 4.6 2.1%
15-3 12.3% 35.3% 35.1% 0.2% 12.8 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 7.9 0.3%
14-4 16.6% 28.0% 28.0% 13.3 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.6 0.2 12.0
13-5 16.5% 24.0% 24.0% 13.7 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.5 12.5
12-6 14.8% 18.9% 18.9% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.0 12.0
11-7 11.4% 15.1% 15.1% 14.3 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.0 9.7
10-8 7.9% 11.8% 11.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 7.0
9-9 4.4% 7.7% 7.7% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.1
8-10 2.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.4 0.1 0.1 2.3
7-11 1.0% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.3% 24.1% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.7 8.0 7.1 2.8 0.4 75.7 0.4%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.9 3.4 10.3 10.3 48.3 24.1 3.4