Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#87
Achievement Rating+8.7#65
Pace69.2#174
Improvement-1.1#236

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#20
First Shot+8.5#8
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#221
Layup/Dunks-0.5#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#98
Freethrows+4.3#2
Improvement+1.1#131

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#228
First Shot-2.4#245
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#126
Layups/Dunks+0.2#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#230
Freethrows+2.8#18
Improvement-2.2#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.5% 43.1% 36.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.3% 99.7% 95.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round42.5% 43.0% 36.5%
Second Round7.8% 8.0% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 327   Mount St. Mary's W 79-61 96%     1 - 0 +4.0 -3.1 +6.3
  Nov 11, 2018 202   @ Marshall L 72-76 70%     1 - 1 -3.7 -5.8 +2.3
  Nov 14, 2018 323   N.C. A&T W 92-72 95%     2 - 1 +6.7 +10.9 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2018 21   @ Maryland L 69-80 14%     2 - 2 +6.3 +10.3 -4.9
  Nov 21, 2018 159   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-71 79%     3 - 2 +6.4 +6.1 -0.1
  Nov 24, 2018 47   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-69 27%     3 - 3 +10.1 +0.9 +9.3
  Nov 28, 2018 251   Siena W 94-86 90%     4 - 3 -0.1 +15.0 -15.3
  Dec 01, 2018 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 78-52 93%     5 - 3 +14.8 -0.3 +14.7
  Dec 05, 2018 271   Monmouth W 75-73 91%     6 - 3 -7.0 +5.9 -12.8
  Dec 08, 2018 195   Rider W 89-73 84%     7 - 3 +11.2 +21.6 -9.1
  Dec 10, 2018 308   @ Manhattan W 80-50 86%     8 - 3 +24.3 +18.3 +9.5
  Dec 19, 2018 170   @ Stony Brook W 71-64 63%     9 - 3 +9.4 +3.1 +6.4
  Dec 28, 2018 249   Delaware W 91-46 90%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +37.1 +12.5 +24.8
  Dec 30, 2018 243   Drexel W 89-75 89%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +6.4 +8.3 -2.0
  Jan 05, 2019 101   Northeastern W 75-72 64%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +5.1 +8.9 -3.5
  Jan 10, 2019 204   @ William & Mary W 93-90 71%     13 - 3 4 - 0 +3.2 -4.0 +6.4
  Jan 12, 2019 316   @ Elon W 74-71 88%     14 - 3 5 - 0 -3.9 +4.3 -8.0
  Jan 17, 2019 252   UNC Wilmington W 87-72 90%     15 - 3 6 - 0 +6.8 +9.4 -1.9
  Jan 19, 2019 123   College of Charleston W 86-72 70%     16 - 3 7 - 0 +14.5 +19.6 -3.8
  Jan 24, 2019 258   @ James Madison W 85-68 80%     17 - 3 8 - 0 +14.1 +12.5 +2.1
  Jan 26, 2019 253   @ Towson W 84-61 79%     18 - 3 9 - 0 +20.3 +17.2 +5.2
  Feb 02, 2019 101   @ Northeastern L 61-75 43%     18 - 4 9 - 1 -6.4 -9.7 +3.3
  Feb 07, 2019 316   Elon W 102-61 95%     19 - 4 10 - 1 +28.6 +23.2 +5.2
  Feb 09, 2019 204   William & Mary W 93-87 85%     20 - 4 11 - 1 +0.6 +9.4 -9.2
  Feb 14, 2019 123   @ College of Charleston W 99-95 49%     21 - 4 12 - 1 +10.0 +21.7 -11.9
  Feb 16, 2019 252   @ UNC Wilmington L 79-87 79%     21 - 5 12 - 2 -10.7 -2.0 -8.5
  Feb 21, 2019 253   Towson W 79-65 91%    
  Feb 23, 2019 258   James Madison W 81-67 91%    
  Feb 28, 2019 243   @ Drexel W 86-78 77%    
  Mar 02, 2019 249   @ Delaware W 78-70 77%    
Projected Record 24.4 - 5.6 15.4 - 2.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 10.8 37.2 50.5 99.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.5 10.8 37.2 50.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 50.5    50.5
15-3 100.0% 37.2    37.2
14-4 100.0% 10.8    6.1 4.7
13-5 57.9% 0.8    0.1 0.5 0.2
12-6 7.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 99.3% 99.3 93.9 5.2 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 50.5% 45.8% 45.6% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6 12.1 6.8 0.5 0.0 27.4 0.2%
15-3 37.2% 41.1% 41.1% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.2 3.5 9.1 2.3 0.0 21.9 0.0%
14-4 10.8% 34.6% 34.6% 13.3 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.3 0.1 7.1
13-5 1.5% 25.1% 25.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1
12-6 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 42.5% 42.4% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.8 15.9 18.2 4.3 0.2 57.5 0.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 23.0% 100.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 15.4 52.2 29.5 1.9 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.9% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.8% 0.0% 13.0 0.0