Vermont
America East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#81
Achievement Rating+10.1#56
Pace64.8#293
Improvement+1.4#111

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#74
First Shot+4.4#52
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#215
Layup/Dunks-3.2#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#110
Freethrows+2.8#26
Improvement-1.6#261

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#107
First Shot+1.5#123
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#95
Layups/Dunks+0.1#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#107
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement+3.0#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.8% 57.4% 49.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.3% 5.7% 1.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 13.0
.500 or above 95.4% 96.7% 81.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.2% 62.6% 21.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 2.0% 0.5%
First Round55.7% 56.2% 49.6%
Second Round10.9% 11.2% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.5% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 242   @ Boston University W 78-72 78%     1 - 0 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Nov 12, 2018 11   @ Kansas L 68-84 11%     1 - 1 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Nov 16, 2018 17   @ Louisville L 78-86 13%     1 - 2 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Nov 21, 2018 87   Yale W 79-70 61%     2 - 2 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Nov 25, 2018 143   Bucknell L 61-69 75%     2 - 3 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Nov 28, 2018 255   @ George Washington W 69-53 80%     3 - 3 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Nov 30, 2018 264   @ Towson W 70-64 81%     4 - 3 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Dec 03, 2018 132   @ George Mason W 72-67 53%     5 - 3 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Dec 08, 2018 120   Harvard W 71-65 70%     6 - 3 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Dec 16, 2018 94   Northeastern W 75-70 64%     7 - 3 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Dec 18, 2018 144   St. Bonaventure W 83-76 75%     8 - 3 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Dec 21, 2018 47   @ Lipscomb L 66-91 28%     8 - 4 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Jan 02, 2019 207   Dartmouth W 73-59 86%     9 - 4 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Jan 05, 2019 292   @ Albany W 80-51 84%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Jan 09, 2019 316   @ Maine W 73-49 88%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Jan 12, 2019 189   Hartford W 81-62 84%     12 - 4 3 - 0 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Jan 16, 2019 346   @ New Hampshire W 73-59 95%     13 - 4 4 - 0 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Jan 19, 2019 335   Binghamton W 78-50 96%     14 - 4 5 - 0 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Jan 23, 2019 213   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 61-74 87%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Jan 26, 2019 169   @ Stony Brook W 73-52 64%     15 - 5 6 - 1 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Feb 02, 2019 240   @ Umass Lowell W 74-65 78%     16 - 5 7 - 1 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Feb 06, 2019 316   Maine W 86-63 94%     17 - 5 8 - 1 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Feb 09, 2019 292   Albany W 67-49 93%     18 - 5 9 - 1 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Feb 13, 2019 346   New Hampshire W 73-44 98%     19 - 5 10 - 1 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Feb 16, 2019 189   @ Hartford W 77-75 69%     20 - 5 11 - 1 +4.0 +5.7 -1.6
  Feb 21, 2019 213   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 23, 2019 335   @ Binghamton W 75-59 93%    
  Mar 02, 2019 169   Stony Brook W 72-63 81%    
  Mar 05, 2019 240   Umass Lowell W 83-70 90%    
Projected Record 23.4 - 5.6 14.4 - 1.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.3 1.2 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.4 9.5 2.6 15.6 3rd
4th 0.1 8.1 24.2 9.7 0.4 42.6 4th
5th 0.1 6.3 20.1 7.7 0.1 34.4 5th
6th 0.5 3.7 1.3 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.9 10.3 29.6 35.4 19.6 4.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 4.2% 81.7% 65.6% 16.1% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.8 46.8%
9-7 19.6% 67.0% 59.3% 7.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 6.0 4.3 0.3 6.5 18.9%
8-8 35.4% 56.2% 55.6% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 3.0 11.7 4.9 0.2 15.5 1.4%
7-9 29.6% 50.9% 50.9% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 3.6 9.1 2.2 0.0 14.5 0.0%
6-10 10.3% 47.7% 47.7% 13.6 0.1 1.9 2.6 0.3 5.4
5-11 0.9% 39.3% 39.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 56.8% 54.4% 2.4% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.1 10.3 20.1 16.3 5.2 0.5 0.0 43.2 5.3%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 19.7% 100.0% 12.1 0.0 0.7 14.9 58.9 24.5 0.9