American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
19 Memphis 72.0%   10   2 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +13.6      +8.4 11 +5.3 55 84.8 8 +5.7 100 0.0 1
24 Cincinnati 70.4%   10   2 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 8 13 - 5 +12.8      +5.3 49 +7.5 20 66.9 261 +9.6 61 0.0 1
38 Houston 47.6%   1 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +11.1      +4.7 62 +6.4 37 66.6 271 -4.4 240 0.0 1
67 Wichita St. 29.3%   2 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +7.7      +1.3 133 +6.4 35 69.5 185 +6.3 96 0.0 1
91 Temple 15.1%   2 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +5.6      +2.1 107 +3.5 76 70.9 152 +3.7 128 0.0 1
94 Connecticut 8.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +5.3      +3.8 75 +1.5 123 77.2 44 -6.9 264 0.0 1
97 SMU 9.9%   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +5.1      +3.5 81 +1.5 124 63.4 324 +6.3 97 0.0 1
123 Central Florida 3.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +2.5      +0.4 161 +2.1 110 64.3 310 -1.8 211 0.0 1
126 Tulsa 2.3%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 10 +2.3      +0.2 168 +2.0 113 69.0 199 +1.8 152 0.0 1
137 South Florida 1.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 +1.7      -2.5 257 +4.2 70 70.1 170 -13.0 320 0.0 1
224 East Carolina 0.1%   1 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 19 5 - 13 -3.4      -2.2 247 -1.2 197 70.5 159 -9.9 293 0.0 1
229 Tulane 0.2%   2 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 4 - 14 -3.6      -0.4 184 -3.2 273 73.2 93 -0.1 181 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Memphis 2.5 40.8 22.9 14.6 8.8 5.6 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 2.7 34.4 23.8 15.4 10.2 6.5 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Houston 3.5 21.8 19.6 16.8 13.0 9.5 6.9 4.9 3.3 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1
Wichita St. 5.2 7.8 10.9 12.4 13.4 12.9 11.4 9.8 7.8 6.2 4.2 2.3 0.7
Temple 5.6 5.6 9.2 11.6 12.8 12.6 11.8 10.5 9.1 7.1 5.2 3.1 1.4
Connecticut 6.2 4.4 6.7 8.8 10.7 11.7 12.0 11.7 10.7 9.2 7.0 4.7 2.2
SMU 5.9 4.5 7.7 10.2 11.7 12.9 12.4 11.4 9.5 7.9 6.1 3.7 1.9
Central Florida 7.1 1.8 3.7 5.9 8.2 10.0 11.2 12.2 12.3 11.9 10.2 8.0 4.6
Tulsa 7.3 1.4 3.2 5.6 7.4 9.6 11.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 11.1 8.5 4.6
South Florida 8.0 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.3 7.2 9.0 10.6 12.6 14.1 14.8 12.4 7.7
East Carolina 9.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.4 8.3 11.9 16.3 23.0 26.6
Tulane 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.2 5.1 7.6 10.8 15.6 23.3 30.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.7 8.3 11.6 14.4 15.9 15.2 12.3 7.4 2.5
Cincinnati 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.8 9.5 12.6 14.8 15.6 13.7 10.5 5.7 1.8
Houston 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.9 7.3 9.8 12.1 13.6 13.8 12.5 9.8 6.1 2.9 0.7
Wichita St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.6 7.9 10.3 12.1 13.1 12.6 10.9 8.8 6.1 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.1
Temple 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.3 6.7 8.9 11.1 12.6 12.6 11.9 10.2 7.6 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
Connecticut 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.2 8.5 10.9 12.2 12.8 12.2 10.2 8.0 5.6 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
SMU 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.1 7.5 9.8 12.0 13.1 12.7 11.4 9.0 6.4 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
Central Florida 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.3 8.7 11.4 12.7 12.9 12.1 10.1 7.7 5.3 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.8 4.0 6.8 9.5 11.8 13.3 13.2 11.9 9.7 7.4 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
South Florida 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 3.5 6.6 9.6 12.1 13.6 13.2 12.1 9.6 7.2 4.9 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 2.2 6.7 11.4 14.8 15.7 14.4 12.1 9.0 6.0 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulane 4 - 14 3.0 8.2 12.7 15.2 15.8 13.8 11.0 8.2 5.5 3.3 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 40.8% 29.2 9.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 34.4% 23.6 8.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Houston 21.8% 13.9 6.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 7.8% 4.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Temple 5.6% 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Connecticut 4.4% 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 4.5% 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 1.8% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
South Florida 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulane 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 72.0% 30.6% 41.4% 10   2.8 4.0 4.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.7 6.7 7.5 8.6 9.8 2.9 0.1 0.0 28.0 59.6%
Cincinnati 70.4% 26.2% 44.2% 10   2.4 3.9 4.7 6.5 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.1 7.2 8.2 10.2 3.2 0.1 0.0 29.6 59.9%
Houston 47.6% 18.0% 29.7% 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.7 2.9 3.2 4.4 4.9 5.9 7.1 9.4 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 52.4 36.2%
Wichita St. 29.3% 8.0% 21.3% 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.8 5.1 7.7 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.7 23.2%
Temple 15.1% 4.8% 10.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.8 2.5 4.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.9 10.8%
Connecticut 8.8% 4.1% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.7 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.2 4.9%
SMU 9.9% 4.0% 5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.4 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 90.1 6.2%
Central Florida 3.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 96.8 1.5%
Tulsa 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7 1.0%
South Florida 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3 0.6%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Tulane 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Memphis 72.0% 7.3% 68.7% 45.5% 22.0% 10.6% 4.7% 2.1% 0.9%
Cincinnati 70.4% 8.6% 66.4% 42.7% 19.7% 9.0% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6%
Houston 47.6% 7.1% 44.5% 25.7% 10.6% 4.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
Wichita St. 29.3% 7.0% 25.6% 12.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Temple 15.1% 4.0% 13.0% 5.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Connecticut 8.8% 2.0% 7.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 9.9% 2.8% 8.5% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 3.2% 0.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 2.3% 0.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 1.7% 0.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.6 9.6 37.4 37.7 13.5 1.7 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.4 0.0 13.6 42.7 33.4 9.3 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 86.2% 1.4 13.8 42.5 33.9 8.9 0.8 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 50.5% 0.6 49.5 41.1 8.8 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 25.3% 0.3 74.7 23.5 1.8 0.0 0.0
Final Four 11.1% 0.1 88.9 10.8 0.3 0.0
Final Game 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7 0.0
Champion 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0