American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
27 Houston 90.5%   8   16 - 4 6 - 1 24 - 7 14 - 4 +12.6      +6.9 24 +5.7 47 66.6 255 +13.2 28 +16.9 2
40 Wichita St. 84.8%   10   17 - 3 5 - 2 24 - 7 12 - 6 +11.0      +2.6 107 +8.4 10 71.8 105 +14.4 22 +11.0 3
43 Cincinnati 42.4%   12 - 7 5 - 2 19 - 11 12 - 6 +10.6      +4.3 60 +6.2 33 69.7 163 +7.6 78 +10.5 4
54 Memphis 44.4%   14 - 5 3 - 3 21 - 10 10 - 8 +9.4      +1.6 130 +7.8 21 83.2 5 +10.0 46 +6.8 6
67 SMU 18.5%   15 - 4 5 - 2 21 - 9 11 - 7 +7.8      +7.8 16 0.0 160 63.0 323 +9.4 54 +10.1 5
70 Tulsa 15.2%   14 - 6 6 - 1 20 - 11 12 - 6 +7.5      +1.8 126 +5.7 43 65.7 274 +8.2 70 +17.0 1
77 Connecticut 5.0%   10 - 9 1 - 5 16 - 15 7 - 11 +6.8      +1.5 136 +5.4 59 69.8 155 +3.1 121 -3.4 12
92 Temple 4.7%   10 - 9 2 - 5 16 - 15 8 - 10 +5.8      -1.0 201 +6.8 30 73.2 80 +4.9 101 +1.9 8
112 Central Florida 1.7%   10 - 9 2 - 5 15 - 15 7 - 11 +4.0      0.0 176 +4.0 75 67.9 230 +2.3 132 +1.5 9
117 South Florida 0.8%   8 - 12 1 - 6 12 - 19 5 - 13 +3.1      -1.6 218 +4.7 65 63.5 319 -0.3 177 -3.2 11
183 Tulane 0.2%   10 - 9 2 - 5 13 - 17 5 - 13 -0.9      -0.1 180 -0.9 191 68.9 196 +1.4 145 +0.9 10
209 East Carolina 0.0%   9 - 11 3 - 4 11 - 20 5 - 13 -2.9      -1.9 226 -1.1 200 73.6 71 -3.6 222 +4.4 7






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Houston 1.8 57.8 21.0 10.7 5.6 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0
Wichita St. 3.2 18.3 22.2 19.2 16.6 12.7 7.4 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Cincinnati 3.2 19.2 20.6 20.1 16.9 12.1 6.9 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Memphis 4.9 4.4 8.4 12.6 16.0 19.0 19.6 10.6 5.5 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
SMU 4.1 9.3 13.6 17.6 18.9 17.0 13.5 6.3 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1
Tulsa 2.8 23.2 26.7 19.8 14.4 9.3 4.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Connecticut 7.8 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.0 6.5 12.2 20.4 18.3 16.2 10.3 6.0 3.7
Temple 7.5 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 8.1 13.7 23.8 20.2 14.4 7.9 4.1 1.9
Central Florida 8.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.6 5.4 10.3 19.0 22.7 17.9 11.0 6.2 3.4
South Florida 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 6.6 11.9 16.5 21.8 20.4 19.2
Tulane 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 4.4 8.8 15.5 21.4 23.8 23.6
East Carolina 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.3 10.2 15.6 21.7 25.4 19.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 14 - 4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 7.5 14.6 21.5 23.4 17.6 9.2 2.3
Wichita St. 12 - 6 0.1 0.5 2.3 6.8 13.0 20.1 23.2 18.8 10.3 4.3 0.6
Cincinnati 12 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.3 13.2 20.0 21.8 19.1 10.7 4.5 0.9
Memphis 10 - 8 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.1 11.2 17.3 21.6 18.8 14.1 7.0 1.9 0.3
SMU 11 - 7 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.5 12.5 18.6 22.3 18.3 11.6 5.2 1.9 0.2
Tulsa 12 - 6 0.2 1.4 4.4 10.5 17.4 22.1 21.5 13.5 6.7 2.2 0.2
Connecticut 7 - 11 0.0 0.5 1.5 5.0 10.3 16.1 19.9 19.1 14.4 8.3 3.8 1.0 0.1
Temple 8 - 10 0.0 0.5 2.7 7.9 14.5 20.5 21.6 17.8 9.8 3.6 1.0 0.1
Central Florida 7 - 11 0.1 1.3 4.5 11.7 18.0 22.1 19.8 13.5 6.2 2.2 0.6 0.1
South Florida 5 - 13 0.4 3.4 10.0 18.9 22.3 20.9 13.6 7.1 2.4 0.8 0.2
Tulane 5 - 13 3.0 12.6 23.2 24.8 19.1 11.3 4.2 1.3 0.4 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 10.8 24.1 26.9 19.9 11.4 4.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 57.8% 40.1 13.0 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
Wichita St. 18.3% 8.6 6.5 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 19.2% 9.4 6.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Memphis 4.4% 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
SMU 9.3% 3.5 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 23.2% 11.6 8.1 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Connecticut 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Temple 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Central Florida 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Florida 0.0% 0.0
Tulane
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 90.5% 29.8% 60.6% 8   0.6 1.9 3.9 7.2 8.5 10.9 14.4 14.0 13.3 9.3 6.1 0.3 9.5 86.4%
Wichita St. 84.8% 18.0% 66.7% 10   0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 5.1 7.4 10.2 12.3 16.7 15.0 12.1 1.2 15.3 81.4%
Cincinnati 42.4% 16.9% 25.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.3 4.3 6.7 9.8 14.1 2.5 0.0 57.6 30.8%
Memphis 44.4% 10.7% 33.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.3 7.8 10.6 14.5 2.7 55.6 37.7%
SMU 18.5% 7.6% 10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.4 8.4 2.8 0.0 81.5 11.8%
Tulsa 15.2% 7.8% 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.5 6.9 2.7 0.1 84.8 8.0%
Connecticut 5.0% 3.9% 1.1% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 95.0 1.1%
Temple 4.7% 2.8% 1.9% 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 95.3 1.9%
Central Florida 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.3 0.1%
South Florida 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.0%
Tulane 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Houston 90.5% 4.1% 88.6% 53.8% 22.2% 9.6% 3.9% 1.4% 0.6%
Wichita St. 84.8% 9.0% 80.0% 40.7% 13.4% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Cincinnati 42.4% 9.0% 38.1% 18.0% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Memphis 44.4% 11.5% 38.5% 16.9% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
SMU 18.5% 6.1% 15.0% 5.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Tulsa 15.2% 4.0% 13.2% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Connecticut 5.0% 0.8% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 4.7% 1.1% 4.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 1.7% 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.1 1.6 22.1 47.3 24.8 4.1 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.8 3.1 30.2 47.2 17.7 1.7 0.0
2nd Round 86.9% 1.4 13.2 41.6 35.5 9.2 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 43.3% 0.5 56.7 36.8 6.3 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 18.5% 0.2 81.5 17.5 0.9 0.0
Final Four 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.1 0.1
Final Game 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
Champion 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9