Connecticut
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#82
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#107
Pace69.8#173
Improvement-2.8#292

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#126
First Shot-0.9#205
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#23
Layup/Dunks-1.6#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
Freethrows+1.1#97
Improvement-1.0#236

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#62
First Shot+4.4#59
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#150
Layups/Dunks-1.5#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#8
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement-1.8#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 12.9% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 8.2% 2.2%
Average Seed 10.8 10.4 11.0
.500 or above 79.5% 91.9% 76.8%
.500 or above in Conference 41.6% 48.1% 40.2%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.9% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 4.7% 7.5%
First Four1.7% 3.9% 1.2%
First Round6.2% 11.0% 5.2%
Second Round2.1% 4.0% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 17.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 7
Quad 24 - 56 - 12
Quad 36 - 211 - 14
Quad 47 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 202   Sacred Heart W 89-67 87%     1 - 0 +16.4 -1.2 +14.5
  Nov 13, 2019 254   Saint Joseph's L 87-96 91%     1 - 1 -17.2 -5.9 -9.8
  Nov 17, 2019 26   Florida W 62-59 37%     2 - 1 +12.9 -3.0 +16.1
  Nov 21, 2019 151   Buffalo W 79-68 70%     3 - 1 +12.1 +0.1 +11.3
  Nov 22, 2019 53   Xavier L 74-75 2OT 40%     3 - 2 +8.3 -4.8 +13.3
  Nov 24, 2019 87   Miami (FL) W 80-55 51%     4 - 2 +31.3 +20.0 +15.3
  Dec 01, 2019 340   Maine W 64-40 97%     5 - 2 +8.4 -13.7 +23.1
  Dec 04, 2019 248   Iona W 80-62 90%     6 - 2 +10.3 +2.6 +7.7
  Dec 10, 2019 43   Indiana L 54-57 34%     6 - 3 +7.7 -10.5 +18.1
  Dec 18, 2019 272   St. Peter's W 66-56 92%     7 - 3 +0.9 -6.4 +7.5
  Dec 22, 2019 299   New Hampshire W 88-62 94%     8 - 3 +15.1 +14.1 +1.1
  Dec 29, 2019 259   NJIT W 69-47 91%     9 - 3 +13.5 -1.6 +17.2
  Jan 01, 2020 47   @ Cincinnati L 51-67 28%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -3.2 -12.0 +8.3
  Jan 04, 2020 117   @ South Florida L 60-75 50%     9 - 5 0 - 2 -8.4 -7.6 -0.6
  Jan 08, 2020 160   Tulane W 67-61 80%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +3.6 +3.7 +0.9
  Jan 12, 2020 38   Wichita St. L 86-89 2OT 43%     10 - 6 1 - 3 +5.5 +0.6 +5.5
  Jan 18, 2020 23   @ Villanova L 63-73 18%    
  Jan 23, 2020 34   @ Houston L 65-73 22%    
  Jan 26, 2020 106   Tulsa W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 29, 2020 76   Temple W 67-65 60%    
  Feb 01, 2020 28   @ Memphis L 67-76 21%    
  Feb 06, 2020 106   @ Tulsa L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 09, 2020 47   Cincinnati L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 12, 2020 83   @ SMU L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 16, 2020 28   Memphis L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 20, 2020 76   @ Temple L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 23, 2020 117   South Florida W 67-61 71%    
  Feb 26, 2020 108   Central Florida W 68-63 69%    
  Feb 29, 2020 221   @ East Carolina W 73-66 75%    
  Mar 05, 2020 34   Houston L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 08, 2020 160   @ Tulane W 71-68 62%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.4 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.4 3.1 0.3 8.6 4th
5th 0.3 4.4 4.9 0.6 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 7.3 1.8 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 8.0 3.4 0.2 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 6.5 5.4 0.4 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.5 6.3 1.0 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.3 2.8 4.8 1.5 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 3.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 7.2 11.7 16.5 18.1 16.4 12.3 7.5 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 88.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 84.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 46.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.3% 82.0% 11.2% 70.8% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 79.7%
13-5 1.4% 64.4% 15.3% 49.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 58.0%
12-6 3.6% 37.1% 13.7% 23.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.3 27.1%
11-7 7.5% 19.2% 9.7% 9.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 6.1 10.5%
10-8 12.3% 9.9% 6.5% 3.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.1 3.6%
9-9 16.4% 4.5% 3.4% 1.1% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 15.7 1.1%
8-10 18.1% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 17.6 0.1%
7-11 16.5% 1.7% 1.7% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 16.2
6-12 11.7% 1.5% 1.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.5
5-13 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 7.0% 3.9% 3.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.9 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.0 3.3%