Connecticut
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#75
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#79
Pace73.0#96
Improvement+0.9#68

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#78
First Shot-0.4#190
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#22
Layup/Dunks-7.1#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#166
Freethrows+5.3#8
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#83
First Shot+0.6#148
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#49
Layups/Dunks-2.8#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#57
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#67
Freethrows-2.2#286
Improvement+1.1#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.4% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 2.0% 4.0% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.1% 29.7% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.0% 23.6% 9.8%
Average Seed 9.6 9.3 9.9
.500 or above 84.1% 93.1% 80.0%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 76.3% 64.8%
Conference Champion 6.9% 9.4% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.1% 2.2%
First Four5.1% 7.2% 4.1%
First Round16.3% 25.8% 12.0%
Second Round7.4% 12.0% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 4.0% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.5% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Neutral) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 24 - 36 - 9
Quad 36 - 211 - 12
Quad 48 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 257   Sacred Heart W 89-67 91%     1 - 0 +13.8 -2.2 +12.8
  Nov 13, 2019 177   Saint Joseph's L 87-96 85%     1 - 1 -12.9 -3.7 -7.8
  Nov 17, 2019 34   Florida W 62-59 43%     2 - 1 +11.7 -0.4 +12.3
  Nov 21, 2019 112   Buffalo W 79-68 64%     3 - 1 +14.2 +2.0 +11.6
  Nov 22, 2019 30   Xavier L 69-74 31%    
  Dec 01, 2019 308   Maine W 78-59 96%    
  Dec 04, 2019 197   Iona W 84-72 87%    
  Dec 10, 2019 35   Indiana L 71-76 34%    
  Dec 18, 2019 336   St. Peter's W 77-55 98%    
  Dec 22, 2019 321   New Hampshire W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 29, 2019 210   NJIT W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 01, 2020 25   @ Cincinnati L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 04, 2020 142   @ South Florida W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 08, 2020 214   Tulane W 82-69 87%    
  Jan 12, 2020 53   Wichita St. W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 18, 2020 14   @ Villanova L 67-79 15%    
  Jan 23, 2020 45   @ Houston L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 26, 2020 143   Tulsa W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 29, 2020 89   Temple W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 01, 2020 23   @ Memphis L 76-85 20%    
  Feb 06, 2020 143   @ Tulsa W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 09, 2020 25   Cincinnati L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 12, 2020 93   @ SMU L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 16, 2020 23   Memphis L 79-82 38%    
  Feb 20, 2020 89   @ Temple L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 23, 2020 142   South Florida W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 26, 2020 117   Central Florida W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 29, 2020 238   @ East Carolina W 77-69 76%    
  Mar 05, 2020 45   Houston L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 08, 2020 214   @ Tulane W 79-72 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 2.8 0.7 0.1 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.2 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.7 3.5 0.5 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.4 5.9 8.3 11.0 13.2 13.5 12.7 10.8 8.2 5.3 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 95.3% 1.2    1.0 0.2
15-3 75.1% 2.2    1.4 0.7 0.1
14-4 37.9% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 10.9% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 3.7 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.3% 94.7% 32.3% 62.4% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.2%
15-3 2.9% 87.3% 22.9% 64.4% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 83.5%
14-4 5.3% 72.5% 17.2% 55.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5 66.8%
13-5 8.2% 49.8% 12.1% 37.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.1 42.9%
12-6 10.8% 31.3% 9.7% 21.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 7.4 24.0%
11-7 12.7% 15.9% 6.7% 9.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 10.7 9.8%
10-8 13.5% 7.2% 3.2% 4.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 12.5 4.2%
9-9 13.2% 2.9% 1.9% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.8 1.0%
8-10 11.0% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.8 0.1%
7-11 8.3% 0.6% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
6-12 5.9% 0.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
5-13 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.1% 5.9% 13.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.4 6.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 80.9 14.0%