Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 Villanova 81.3%   4   1 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +14.8      +8.6 9 +6.2 41 65.1 296 +5.1 109 0.0 1
15 Marquette 83.9%   4   2 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 11 - 7 +14.2      +7.6 19 +6.6 33 71.4 135 +20.4 10 0.0 1
18 Seton Hall 74.6%   5   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +13.8      +7.4 20 +6.4 36 71.6 131 +6.7 91 0.0 1
33 Providence 57.1%   9   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +11.7      +5.3 47 +6.4 39 70.2 168 +2.0 148 0.0 1
34 Xavier 66.7%   8   4 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 9 - 9 +11.5      +4.1 72 +7.4 22 68.3 216 +14.8 28 0.0 1
39 Butler 58.1%   8   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +11.1      +5.6 43 +5.4 52 62.6 333 +12.4 43 0.0 1
44 Creighton 46.4%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +10.5      +8.0 15 +2.5 100 71.1 146 +0.4 172 0.0 1
74 Georgetown 20.3%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 11 +7.0      +5.0 55 +2.0 115 79.2 26 +1.7 153 0.0 1
82 DePaul 24.2%   3 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +6.6      +4.0 73 +2.6 94 75.8 61 +18.7 13 0.0 1
87 St. John's 15.3%   3 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +6.1      +3.5 82 +2.6 98 80.5 20 +2.7 138 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Villanova 3.2 29.4 19.0 14.4 11.1 8.5 6.5 4.8 3.3 2.0 1.0
Marquette 3.5 25.7 18.3 14.6 11.7 9.3 7.4 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.3
Seton Hall 3.6 22.3 18.4 15.1 12.3 9.7 7.9 6.0 4.2 2.7 1.4
Providence 4.7 12.0 13.0 13.1 12.9 12.1 10.9 9.6 7.5 5.5 3.4
Xavier 4.8 10.6 12.2 12.9 13.2 12.2 11.6 10.0 8.1 5.8 3.3
Butler 5.0 9.6 11.2 11.8 12.5 12.6 11.8 10.3 9.1 6.9 4.2
Creighton 5.3 8.6 10.1 10.9 11.6 11.9 11.7 11.3 9.9 8.1 5.8
Georgetown 7.1 2.0 3.4 5.0 6.5 8.5 10.8 13.0 15.8 17.5 17.7
DePaul 7.2 1.6 3.1 4.4 6.2 8.0 10.2 12.6 15.6 18.6 19.6
St. John's 7.5 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.3 7.1 9.7 12.3 15.6 19.4 23.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Villanova 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.2 8.3 10.5 12.0 12.6 12.2 11.1 8.3 5.4 2.8 0.8
Marquette 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.0 6.9 9.2 11.1 12.1 12.4 11.7 9.9 7.3 4.7 2.0 0.6
Seton Hall 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.7 5.5 7.7 9.6 11.6 12.5 12.8 11.4 9.1 6.5 3.6 1.6 0.4
Providence 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.5 6.7 9.0 10.7 11.9 12.2 11.5 9.9 7.7 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1
Xavier 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.7 7.1 9.5 11.2 12.2 12.4 11.6 9.6 7.3 4.7 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1
Butler 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.5 7.8 9.8 11.6 12.4 12.0 10.8 8.8 6.5 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1
Creighton 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.3 6.6 8.5 10.8 11.5 11.9 11.3 9.7 8.1 5.9 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 11 0.6 2.0 4.7 7.8 10.4 12.2 13.2 12.4 11.0 9.0 6.5 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 6 - 12 0.6 2.5 5.4 8.4 11.1 12.9 13.1 12.1 10.4 8.3 6.3 4.0 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. John's 6 - 12 1.0 3.1 6.3 9.5 12.3 13.4 13.0 11.9 9.8 7.4 5.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 29.4% 20.7 6.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Marquette 25.7% 17.8 6.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 22.3% 15.0 5.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Providence 12.0% 7.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Xavier 10.6% 6.4 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Butler 9.6% 5.7 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Creighton 8.6% 5.2 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
DePaul 1.6% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
St. John's 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 81.3% 21.4% 59.9% 4   7.7 9.3 9.9 9.6 8.8 8.1 7.4 6.6 5.5 4.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 18.7 76.2%
Marquette 83.9% 19.1% 64.8% 4   7.4 9.9 10.9 10.4 9.4 9.0 7.4 6.1 5.3 4.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.1 80.1%
Seton Hall 74.6% 17.2% 57.5% 5   4.7 7.1 8.5 8.8 8.9 8.3 8.2 7.3 5.5 4.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.4 69.4%
Providence 57.1% 10.0% 47.1% 9   1.2 2.4 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.1 7.2 7.5 6.6 5.9 5.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.9 52.3%
Xavier 66.7% 9.6% 57.2% 8   1.7 3.6 5.4 6.5 7.4 7.9 7.5 7.3 6.9 6.1 5.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 63.2%
Butler 58.1% 8.6% 49.4% 8   1.4 2.8 4.4 5.3 6.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 5.4 4.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.9 54.1%
Creighton 46.4% 7.7% 38.6% 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.3 4.1 4.7 5.8 6.5 5.9 5.4 4.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.6 41.9%
Georgetown 20.3% 2.4% 17.9% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.7 18.3%
DePaul 24.2% 2.2% 22.0% 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.6 4.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.8 22.5%
St. John's 15.3% 1.8% 13.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.7 13.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Villanova 81.3% 2.6% 80.1% 60.1% 33.3% 16.8% 8.2% 3.8% 1.7%
Marquette 83.9% 2.7% 82.6% 60.7% 32.9% 16.2% 7.5% 3.5% 1.5%
Seton Hall 74.6% 1.9% 73.8% 52.9% 27.4% 13.2% 5.9% 2.6% 1.1%
Providence 57.1% 4.1% 55.2% 34.9% 14.9% 6.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Xavier 66.7% 4.6% 64.4% 40.1% 16.9% 6.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Butler 58.1% 3.9% 56.2% 34.6% 14.6% 6.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Creighton 46.4% 3.8% 44.6% 26.8% 10.8% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Georgetown 20.3% 2.4% 19.0% 9.3% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
DePaul 24.2% 3.7% 22.2% 10.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
St. John's 15.3% 2.6% 13.9% 6.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.3 3.6 18.7 35.9 29.8 10.3 1.4 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.5 5.1 22.1 36.6 26.5 8.1 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 99.7% 3.4 0.3 4.1 17.8 33.1 29.3 12.6 2.6 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 87.9% 1.6 12.1 36.7 34.5 14.0 2.4 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 56.7% 0.7 43.3 42.6 12.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
Final Four 29.0% 0.3 71.0 26.4 2.5 0.1
Final Game 13.4% 0.1 86.6 13.1 0.3
Champion 5.6% 0.1 94.4 5.6