Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Seton Hall 99.9%   2   15 - 4 7 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 4 +15.5      +6.9 28 +8.6 8 72.2 98 +16.5 13 +26.4 1
16 Villanova 99.6%   3   16 - 3 6 - 1 23 - 8 13 - 5 +14.0      +8.2 11 +5.8 42 64.6 299 +18.7 6 +20.5 2
21 Butler 98.5%   5   16 - 4 4 - 3 23 - 8 11 - 7 +13.2      +6.3 35 +7.0 27 62.9 325 +16.5 14 +13.0 4
26 Marquette 91.9%   6   14 - 6 4 - 4 20 - 10 10 - 8 +12.9      +7.9 15 +5.0 63 75.6 45 +13.2 27 +11.4 6
28 Creighton 94.9%   6   15 - 5 5 - 3 20 - 10 10 - 8 +12.6      +9.2 8 +3.4 84 70.4 143 +14.4 23 +13.4 3
49 Georgetown 46.5%   11   12 - 8 2 - 5 17 - 14 7 - 11 +10.0      +7.5 20 +2.6 99 77.4 26 +9.7 51 +6.5 7
52 Xavier 38.1%   13 - 7 2 - 5 18 - 13 7 - 11 +9.6      +3.1 86 +6.5 32 68.7 202 +10.1 45 +6.3 8
62 Providence 12.1%   11 - 10 4 - 4 15 - 16 8 - 10 +8.2      +2.8 99 +5.4 57 69.3 179 +5.4 96 +11.6 5
69 St. John's 14.2%   13 - 8 2 - 6 17 - 14 6 - 12 +7.6      +1.9 121 +5.7 45 79.2 19 +7.8 74 +5.0 9
78 DePaul 11.4%   12 - 7 1 - 6 15 - 15 4 - 14 +6.8      +3.1 87 +3.7 79 73.3 75 +8.5 68 -0.3 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Seton Hall 1.4 74.0 18.3 5.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Villanova 2.2 30.7 41.8 15.5 7.4 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.0
Butler 3.7 5.2 19.5 26.3 21.0 14.4 7.8 3.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
Marquette 4.2 2.2 12.3 21.6 23.6 20.1 11.2 5.5 2.7 0.7 0.1
Creighton 3.6 6.0 17.4 26.0 23.8 15.6 7.3 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
Georgetown 6.7 0.1 1.0 3.4 7.6 11.7 19.5 22.9 18.4 10.0 5.4
Xavier 6.9 0.0 0.8 3.4 6.5 11.2 18.5 20.5 20.1 12.3 6.6
Providence 6.1 0.3 2.1 5.7 10.7 16.4 23.8 19.8 13.5 6.3 1.4
St. John's 8.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.8 8.3 14.9 22.9 33.1 14.9
DePaul 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.8 7.3 13.3 24.1 49.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Seton Hall 14 - 4 0.1 0.4 1.3 4.4 9.8 16.6 21.4 21.5 15.1 7.7 1.8
Villanova 13 - 5 0.3 0.9 3.5 7.7 14.9 20.5 21.7 16.5 9.6 3.6 0.7
Butler 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.6 8.6 15.2 20.2 21.2 16.7 9.3 3.5 0.6
Marquette 10 - 8 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.2 13.1 18.7 22.6 19.3 11.9 4.9 0.7
Creighton 10 - 8 0.0 0.7 2.8 8.2 15.9 22.7 21.6 16.1 8.6 2.9 0.4
Georgetown 7 - 11 0.1 1.4 4.8 10.3 17.6 21.4 19.9 14.1 7.0 2.7 0.6 0.1
Xavier 7 - 11 0.2 2.0 5.9 12.1 18.2 21.3 18.4 12.4 6.5 2.4 0.7 0.0
Providence 8 - 10 1.2 5.6 13.3 21.7 21.9 18.3 11.0 5.1 1.5 0.4 0.0
St. John's 6 - 12 1.5 7.4 16.1 22.7 22.9 16.1 8.8 3.3 0.9 0.2
DePaul 4 - 14 3.1 10.0 19.1 21.9 20.6 13.7 7.4 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Seton Hall 74.0% 60.3 11.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
Villanova 30.7% 18.8 10.1 1.5 0.3 0.0
Butler 5.2% 2.0 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Marquette 2.2% 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Creighton 6.0% 2.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Georgetown 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Xavier 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Providence 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
St. John's
DePaul


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Seton Hall 99.9% 28.0% 71.9% 2   19.9 27.0 21.9 15.0 8.3 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%
Villanova 99.6% 19.7% 79.9% 3   9.4 17.8 21.1 18.8 14.1 9.5 4.9 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.4 99.6%
Butler 98.5% 14.7% 83.8% 5   2.3 6.8 13.7 16.4 17.6 16.1 10.7 6.1 4.3 2.6 1.8 0.1 1.5 98.2%
Marquette 91.9% 12.1% 79.8% 6   0.6 2.3 6.0 9.5 13.6 15.9 15.1 11.7 7.3 5.3 4.2 0.3 8.1 90.8%
Creighton 94.9% 12.5% 82.4% 6   0.8 2.9 7.2 10.9 15.2 17.5 14.5 11.6 7.1 3.8 3.0 0.4 5.2 94.1%
Georgetown 46.5% 4.5% 42.0% 11   0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 5.6 8.7 7.9 8.0 8.9 1.7 0.0 53.5 43.9%
Xavier 38.1% 3.6% 34.5% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.2 5.3 6.9 6.9 9.0 2.0 0.0 61.9 35.8%
Providence 12.1% 2.7% 9.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.2 2.8 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.9 9.6%
St. John's 14.2% 1.4% 12.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.9 1.2 0.0 85.8 13.0%
DePaul 11.4% 0.8% 10.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.6 4.2 0.8 88.6 10.6%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Seton Hall 99.9% 0.0% 99.8% 88.0% 54.4% 29.3% 14.5% 6.4% 2.9%
Villanova 99.6% 0.2% 99.5% 80.0% 45.0% 20.0% 8.6% 3.5% 1.4%
Butler 98.5% 1.2% 97.9% 69.0% 33.8% 14.3% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8%
Marquette 91.9% 3.2% 90.4% 58.5% 26.8% 11.2% 4.9% 1.8% 0.6%
Creighton 94.9% 2.4% 93.6% 60.0% 27.3% 11.3% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5%
Georgetown 46.5% 8.0% 42.5% 20.4% 6.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Xavier 38.1% 8.2% 34.2% 15.3% 5.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Providence 12.1% 2.3% 10.9% 4.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. John's 14.2% 4.9% 11.4% 4.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 11.4% 4.0% 9.1% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.1 1.7 22.8 46.4 25.4 3.6 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 5.9 0.0 2.6 29.2 46.5 19.4 2.2 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.0 0.0 0.9 5.9 22.5 37.3 26.7 6.3 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 94.4% 2.0 5.6 25.8 37.6 23.7 6.7 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 67.0% 0.9 33.0 45.9 17.8 3.1 0.1
Final Four 35.7% 0.4 64.3 31.8 3.7 0.1
Final Game 15.3% 0.2 84.7 14.8 0.5
Champion 6.3% 0.1 93.7 6.3