Providence
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#62
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#96
Pace69.3#179
Improvement+2.3#89

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#99
First Shot-1.5#225
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#4
Layup/Dunks-0.4#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#197
Freethrows+0.9#106
Improvement+2.2#72

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#57
First Shot+4.2#65
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#78
Layups/Dunks+2.1#92
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#67
Freethrows-0.9#247
Improvement+0.0#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 24.0% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.6% 20.7% 6.4%
Average Seed 9.6 9.2 9.9
.500 or above 39.3% 62.2% 32.3%
.500 or above in Conference 36.3% 59.8% 29.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 1.2% 5.9%
First Four2.3% 3.6% 1.9%
First Round10.9% 22.3% 7.5%
Second Round4.7% 9.9% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 2.5% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 54 - 11
Quad 24 - 28 - 14
Quad 33 - 211 - 16
Quad 44 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 205   Sacred Heart W 106-60 90%     1 - 0 +40.3 +22.5 +14.9
  Nov 09, 2019 256   NJIT W 76-47 93%     2 - 0 +20.7 -3.2 +23.1
  Nov 13, 2019 108   @ Northwestern L 63-72 53%     2 - 1 -1.7 -6.5 +4.8
  Nov 16, 2019 238   St. Peter's W 68-47 92%     3 - 1 +13.6 -3.7 +17.4
  Nov 19, 2019 254   Merrimack W 93-56 93%     4 - 1 +28.8 +15.2 +12.1
  Nov 23, 2019 139   Penn L 75-81 81%     4 - 2 -7.2 -4.6 -2.1
  Nov 28, 2019 296   Long Beach St. L 65-66 92%     4 - 3 -8.6 -13.9 +5.3
  Nov 29, 2019 134   College of Charleston L 55-63 73%     4 - 4 -6.1 -13.8 +7.0
  Dec 01, 2019 141   Pepperdine W 80-77 74%     5 - 4 +4.6 +3.1 +1.4
  Dec 06, 2019 59   @ Rhode Island L 61-75 38%     5 - 5 -2.7 -12.1 +11.1
  Dec 14, 2019 151   Stony Brook W 82-78 83%     6 - 5 +2.1 +3.5 -1.7
  Dec 17, 2019 22   Florida L 51-83 31%     6 - 6 -18.8 -15.2 -4.2
  Dec 21, 2019 63   Texas W 70-48 61%     7 - 6 +27.2 +0.9 +26.2
  Dec 31, 2019 49   Georgetown W 76-60 54%     8 - 6 1 - 0 +23.1 +5.5 +17.9
  Jan 04, 2020 78   @ DePaul W 66-65 44%     9 - 6 2 - 0 +10.7 +2.3 +8.5
  Jan 07, 2020 26   @ Marquette W 81-80 OT 23%     10 - 6 3 - 0 +16.8 +8.8 +7.9
  Jan 10, 2020 21   Butler L 58-70 42%     10 - 7 3 - 1 -1.7 -3.9 +1.0
  Jan 15, 2020 69   St. John's W 63-58 63%     11 - 7 4 - 1 +9.7 -5.8 +15.5
  Jan 18, 2020 28   @ Creighton L 74-78 24%     11 - 8 4 - 2 +11.5 +14.0 -2.9
  Jan 22, 2020 10   @ Seton Hall L 64-73 17%     11 - 9 4 - 3 +9.4 +7.6 +1.0
  Jan 25, 2020 16   Villanova L 60-64 39%     11 - 10 4 - 4 +7.1 -6.2 +13.1
  Feb 01, 2020 21   @ Butler L 61-69 23%    
  Feb 05, 2020 28   Creighton L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 52   @ Xavier L 65-69 33%    
  Feb 12, 2020 69   @ St. John's L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 15, 2020 10   Seton Hall L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 19, 2020 49   @ Georgetown L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 22, 2020 26   Marquette L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 29, 2020 16   @ Villanova L 63-72 21%    
  Mar 04, 2020 52   Xavier W 67-66 55%    
  Mar 07, 2020 78   DePaul W 72-68 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.2 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.3 3.9 5.1 1.4 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.3 4.5 8.4 3.0 0.2 16.4 5th
6th 0.4 5.9 11.7 5.4 0.4 23.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.7 10.6 5.0 0.4 19.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 6.6 4.5 0.3 13.5 8th
9th 0.6 2.9 2.5 0.4 6.3 9th
10th 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.4 10th
Total 1.2 5.6 13.3 21.7 21.9 18.3 11.0 5.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 36.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 96.8% 6.5% 90.3% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.5%
12-6 1.5% 96.0% 13.5% 82.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.4%
11-7 5.1% 71.4% 5.8% 65.5% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.5 69.6%
10-8 11.0% 35.6% 5.0% 30.6% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.2 7.1 32.2%
9-9 18.3% 9.2% 3.8% 5.4% 10.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.1 16.6 5.7%
8-10 21.9% 2.7% 2.5% 0.2% 11.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 21.3 0.2%
7-11 21.7% 1.2% 1.2% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 21.4
6-12 13.3% 0.9% 0.9% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.2
5-13 5.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 5.6
4-14 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 1.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 2.7% 9.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.2 2.8 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.9 9.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%