Villanova
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#14
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#61
Pace65.4#294
Improvement-0.3#230

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#9
First Shot+10.1#6
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#249
Layup/Dunks+1.3#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+13.0#3
Freethrows-1.0#222
Improvement-0.9#311

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#35
First Shot+6.0#36
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#138
Layups/Dunks-2.5#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#39
Freethrows+2.8#45
Improvement+0.6#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 2.0% 1.5%
#1 Seed 8.2% 8.6% 3.7%
Top 2 Seed 19.2% 20.5% 4.1%
Top 4 Seed 42.2% 44.3% 19.0%
Top 6 Seed 59.6% 61.5% 37.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.3% 87.3% 63.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.7% 83.1% 57.6%
Average Seed 5.0 5.0 6.2
.500 or above 94.8% 95.7% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 88.0% 76.3%
Conference Champion 32.9% 34.2% 19.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.9% 2.5%
First Four2.4% 2.4% 3.1%
First Round84.3% 86.4% 60.9%
Second Round63.0% 64.8% 42.8%
Sweet Sixteen35.5% 36.7% 22.7%
Elite Eight18.6% 19.5% 8.3%
Final Four9.5% 9.9% 4.5%
Championship Game4.4% 4.6% 2.2%
National Champion1.8% 1.9% 0.7%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Neutral) - 91.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 7
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 36 - 119 - 9
Quad 43 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 288   Army W 97-54 98%     1 - 0 +33.1 +9.8 +18.0
  Nov 13, 2019 10   @ Ohio St. L 51-76 32%     1 - 1 -4.9 -5.7 -1.6
  Nov 16, 2019 153   Ohio W 78-54 94%     2 - 1 +21.1 +6.4 +15.2
  Nov 21, 2019 164   Middle Tennessee W 76-60 92%    
  Dec 01, 2019 203   La Salle W 79-58 97%    
  Dec 04, 2019 107   Penn W 77-62 90%    
  Dec 07, 2019 188   @ Saint Joseph's W 86-72 90%    
  Dec 14, 2019 179   Delaware W 75-59 94%    
  Dec 21, 2019 3   Kansas L 72-73 44%    
  Dec 30, 2019 35   Xavier W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 04, 2020 25   @ Marquette L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 07, 2020 45   @ Creighton W 74-73 56%    
  Jan 11, 2020 77   Georgetown W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 14, 2020 75   DePaul W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 18, 2020 85   Connecticut W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 21, 2020 34   Butler W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 25, 2020 37   @ Providence W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 28, 2020 90   @ St. John's W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 01, 2020 45   Creighton W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 05, 2020 34   @ Butler W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 08, 2020 15   Seton Hall W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 12, 2020 25   Marquette W 74-68 67%    
  Feb 16, 2020 86   @ Temple W 73-66 70%    
  Feb 19, 2020 75   @ DePaul W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 22, 2020 35   @ Xavier W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 26, 2020 90   St. John's W 81-68 86%    
  Feb 29, 2020 37   Providence W 73-66 71%    
  Mar 04, 2020 15   @ Seton Hall L 71-73 43%    
  Mar 07, 2020 77   @ Georgetown W 78-73 66%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.9 5.4 8.4 7.3 5.8 3.5 0.5 32.9 1st
2nd 0.3 2.2 5.2 6.7 3.5 0.9 0.1 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 6.5 4.7 1.8 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 4.7 3.5 0.9 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.4 0.3 8.0 5th
6th 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.6 1.7 1.8 0.3 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 3.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.5 3.4 5.0 7.5 10.3 12.7 12.7 13.9 12.0 8.1 5.9 3.5 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 3.5    3.5 0.1
16-2 98.0% 5.8    5.5 0.3
15-3 89.2% 7.3    6.1 1.2 0.0
14-4 69.8% 8.4    4.8 3.3 0.3
13-5 38.8% 5.4    2.0 2.8 0.6 0.0
12-6 15.0% 1.9    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.9% 32.9 22.5 8.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 67.4% 32.6% 1.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.5% 100.0% 60.7% 39.3% 1.4 2.2 1.1 0.1 100.0%
16-2 5.9% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1.8 2.5 2.2 0.8 0.4 100.0%
15-3 8.1% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 2.5 1.4 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 12.0% 100.0% 32.5% 67.5% 3.1 1.3 3.1 3.3 2.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 100.0%
13-5 13.9% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 4.3 0.3 0.8 2.8 4.6 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.7% 99.4% 26.5% 72.9% 5.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 3.0 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.2%
11-7 12.7% 97.2% 14.7% 82.5% 6.9 0.5 1.0 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.4 96.7%
10-8 10.3% 85.8% 8.8% 77.0% 8.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.0 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.5 84.4%
9-9 7.5% 71.8% 9.4% 62.4% 8.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 2.1 68.9%
8-10 5.0% 33.0% 7.0% 26.0% 9.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.3 27.9%
7-11 3.4% 16.0% 11.1% 4.8% 10.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.9 5.4%
6-12 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 8.2 0.1 0.0 2.5 0.2%
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 85.3% 23.7% 61.6% 5.0 8.2 11.0 10.6 12.4 8.7 8.7 7.3 6.3 5.7 2.9 3.0 0.5 0.1 14.7 80.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2