Villanova
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#23
Expected Predictive Rating+17.4#8
Pace64.2#311
Improvement+1.4#123

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#13
First Shot+7.1#16
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#93
Layup/Dunks+3.3#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#9
Freethrows-0.4#197
Improvement-3.2#321

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#60
First Shot+2.1#107
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#14
Layups/Dunks-6.2#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#17
Freethrows+3.3#20
Improvement+4.5#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 5.1% 7.2% 2.2%
Top 2 Seed 16.5% 22.7% 8.2%
Top 4 Seed 47.5% 58.3% 32.9%
Top 6 Seed 74.3% 83.0% 62.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.5% 98.7% 93.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.9% 98.4% 92.7%
Average Seed 4.8 4.3 5.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 96.4% 85.7%
Conference Champion 18.6% 25.1% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.7% 0.7% 3.0%
First Round95.8% 98.4% 92.3%
Second Round69.6% 74.8% 62.5%
Sweet Sixteen35.7% 39.9% 30.0%
Elite Eight15.5% 18.0% 12.2%
Final Four6.6% 7.4% 5.4%
Championship Game2.5% 3.0% 1.9%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.7%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 57.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 9
Quad 27 - 114 - 10
Quad 34 - 019 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 297   Army W 97-54 98%     1 - 0 +32.3 +7.5 +19.6
  Nov 13, 2019 13   @ Ohio St. L 51-76 34%     1 - 1 -7.5 -8.2 -1.6
  Nov 16, 2019 202   Ohio W 78-54 95%     2 - 1 +18.5 +3.0 +15.9
  Nov 21, 2019 284   Middle Tennessee W 98-69 96%     3 - 1 +21.9 +15.8 +4.6
  Nov 22, 2019 50   Mississippi St. W 83-76 63%     4 - 1 +16.7 +17.6 -0.6
  Nov 24, 2019 5   Baylor L 78-87 33%     4 - 2 +8.6 +24.5 -17.0
  Dec 01, 2019 172   La Salle W 83-72 93%     5 - 2 +7.8 +4.6 +2.3
  Dec 04, 2019 151   Penn W 80-69 91%     6 - 2 +9.2 +4.0 +5.0
  Dec 07, 2019 241   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-66 91%     7 - 2 +10.5 +8.3 +3.1
  Dec 14, 2019 207   Delaware W 78-70 92%     8 - 2 +5.2 +3.6 +1.8
  Dec 21, 2019 1   Kansas W 56-55 31%     9 - 2 +19.2 +0.6 +18.7
  Dec 30, 2019 53   Xavier W 68-62 74%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +12.4 +0.8 +11.7
  Jan 04, 2020 27   @ Marquette L 60-71 41%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +4.5 -8.2 +13.0
  Jan 07, 2020 35   @ Creighton W 64-59 44%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +19.6 +1.9 +18.2
  Jan 11, 2020 47   Georgetown W 80-66 71%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +21.4 +13.6 +8.8
  Jan 14, 2020 60   DePaul W 79-75 OT 77%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +9.5 +6.5 +2.9
  Jan 18, 2020 78   Connecticut W 61-55 80%     14 - 3 +10.0 +2.5 +8.6
  Jan 21, 2020 17   Butler W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 25, 2020 65   @ Providence W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 28, 2020 77   @ St. John's W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 01, 2020 35   Creighton W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 05, 2020 17   @ Butler L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 08, 2020 8   Seton Hall W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 12, 2020 27   Marquette W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 16, 2020 74   @ Temple W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 19, 2020 60   @ DePaul W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 22, 2020 53   @ Xavier W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 26, 2020 77   St. John's W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 29, 2020 65   Providence W 72-64 77%    
  Mar 04, 2020 8   @ Seton Hall L 67-72 31%    
  Mar 07, 2020 47   @ Georgetown L 75-76 50%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.0 5.9 4.1 1.4 0.2 18.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.9 11.7 9.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 31.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.7 9.1 4.7 0.7 0.0 20.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.5 6.3 2.5 0.2 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.4 2.0 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.4 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 5.3 10.1 15.1 17.8 18.3 15.0 9.5 4.6 1.4 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 98.9% 1.4    1.3 0.1
15-3 89.0% 4.1    3.2 0.9
14-4 62.6% 5.9    3.6 2.2 0.1
13-5 33.6% 5.0    1.9 2.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 9.6% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 10.5 6.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.4% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 100.0%
15-3 4.6% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.8 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.5% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.4 1.7 3.6 3.0 1.0 0.1 100.0%
13-5 15.0% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.1 0.7 3.5 5.6 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 18.3% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 4.1 0.1 1.3 4.3 6.0 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 17.8% 99.9% 12.5% 87.4% 5.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.6 5.5 4.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 15.1% 99.6% 9.8% 89.8% 6.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.8 4.1 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.6%
9-9 10.1% 96.7% 7.5% 89.2% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.3 96.5%
8-10 5.3% 78.2% 4.1% 74.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.2 1.2 77.3%
7-11 2.0% 41.6% 2.3% 39.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.2 40.3%
6-12 0.7% 13.8% 2.2% 11.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 11.9%
5-13 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.5% 15.2% 81.3% 4.8 5.1 11.5 15.4 15.6 14.9 11.9 8.5 5.4 3.9 2.3 1.9 0.3 3.5 95.9%