Preseason Rankings
Harvard
Ivy League
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#69
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#195
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#69
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 3.3% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 5.0% 7.0% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.6% 51.1% 36.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.5% 10.8% 2.9%
Average Seed 11.1 10.7 12.1
.500 or above 95.6% 98.1% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 95.8% 90.9%
Conference Champion 52.8% 58.6% 43.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.2%
First Four2.4% 3.0% 1.4%
First Round44.4% 49.7% 36.1%
Second Round15.3% 18.9% 9.6%
Sweet Sixteen5.5% 7.3% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.2% 0.5%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 38 - 311 - 6
Quad 410 - 120 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 130   @ Northeastern W 72-69 62%    
  Nov 10, 2019 333   Maine W 77-55 98%    
  Nov 14, 2019 251   Siena W 71-55 92%    
  Nov 16, 2019 104   Buffalo W 81-77 63%    
  Nov 22, 2019 312   @ Holy Cross W 73-59 89%    
  Nov 28, 2019 61   Texas A&M L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 07, 2019 237   Massachusetts W 79-64 90%    
  Dec 21, 2019 190   @ George Washington W 73-66 73%    
  Dec 22, 2019 337   @ Howard W 85-68 93%    
  Dec 29, 2019 166   @ California W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 30, 2019 111   @ San Francisco W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 04, 2020 106   UC Irvine W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 18, 2020 193   Dartmouth W 77-64 86%    
  Jan 25, 2020 193   @ Dartmouth W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 31, 2020 98   @ Penn W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 01, 2020 143   @ Princeton W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 07, 2020 144   @ Yale W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 08, 2020 171   @ Brown W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 14, 2020 282   Cornell W 80-62 93%    
  Feb 15, 2020 173   Columbia W 79-67 83%    
  Feb 21, 2020 143   Princeton W 75-65 79%    
  Feb 22, 2020 98   Penn W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 28, 2020 173   @ Columbia W 76-70 67%    
  Feb 29, 2020 282   @ Cornell W 77-65 83%    
  Mar 06, 2020 171   Brown W 80-69 83%    
  Mar 07, 2020 144   Yale W 81-71 79%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.1 12.2 15.3 13.1 6.3 52.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.6 8.2 5.2 1.4 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.3 4.8 1.6 0.1 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.4 8.3 11.7 14.9 17.5 16.7 13.1 6.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 6.3    6.3
13-1 100.0% 13.1    12.6 0.5
12-2 91.5% 15.3    12.6 2.7 0.0
11-3 69.5% 12.2    7.1 4.6 0.6 0.0
10-4 34.2% 5.1    1.6 2.3 1.1 0.1
9-5 7.2% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 52.8% 52.8 40.3 10.3 2.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 6.3% 90.3% 73.5% 16.8% 6.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 63.4%
13-1 13.1% 78.1% 65.9% 12.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 2.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 35.7%
12-2 16.7% 60.1% 53.3% 6.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.1 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.7 14.6%
11-3 17.5% 46.2% 43.9% 2.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.2 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 9.4 4.2%
10-4 14.9% 38.8% 37.8% 1.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 9.1 1.7%
9-5 11.7% 31.2% 30.9% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 8.0 0.4%
8-6 8.3% 20.7% 20.6% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 6.6 0.1%
7-7 5.4% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.1 0.0%
6-8 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
5-9 1.7% 1.7
4-10 0.8% 0.8
3-11 0.4% 0.4
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 45.6% 41.2% 4.4% 11.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.8 2.3 6.3 12.4 9.1 4.6 1.6 0.3 54.4 7.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 3.4 10.5 19.8 18.1 33.5 11.3 4.9 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 99.6% 5.2 0.4 6.1 7.6 16.0 34.6 18.3 8.4 1.9 6.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 85.6% 5.3 1.9 16.3 1.9 33.7 7.7 16.3 2.9 4.8