Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#315
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.8#66
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#238
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.1#345
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.7% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 14.8% 27.6% 10.4%
.500 or above in Conference 31.0% 43.5% 26.7%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.8% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 20.5% 12.7% 23.2%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.2%
First Round2.3% 4.2% 1.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 25.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 49 - 1111 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 254   @ Drexel L 77-84 26%    
  Nov 10, 2019 66   @ Rutgers L 65-85 3%    
  Nov 13, 2019 290   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-79 33%    
  Nov 18, 2019 314   Bryant W 80-77 60%    
  Nov 27, 2019 241   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-87 25%    
  Dec 01, 2019 318   @ Norfolk St. L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 08, 2019 127   Colgate L 73-82 23%    
  Dec 14, 2019 178   @ Albany L 70-81 17%    
  Dec 18, 2019 115   @ St. Bonaventure L 63-79 8%    
  Dec 21, 2019 104   @ Buffalo L 77-93 8%    
  Dec 28, 2019 59   @ Syracuse L 63-84 4%    
  Jan 03, 2020 288   Fairfield W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 05, 2020 259   Manhattan L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 10, 2020 256   @ Quinnipiac L 74-81 28%    
  Jan 12, 2020 161   @ Iona L 77-89 15%    
  Jan 17, 2020 180   Rider L 83-88 35%    
  Jan 19, 2020 251   Siena L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 24, 2020 239   @ Monmouth L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 26, 2020 307   @ St. Peter's L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 31, 2020 328   Marist W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 02, 2020 256   Quinnipiac L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 07, 2020 259   @ Manhattan L 63-70 29%    
  Feb 09, 2020 180   @ Rider L 80-91 19%    
  Feb 12, 2020 295   Canisius W 78-76 55%    
  Feb 16, 2020 239   Monmouth L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 21, 2020 288   @ Fairfield L 73-78 34%    
  Feb 23, 2020 328   @ Marist L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 27, 2020 307   St. Peter's W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 29, 2020 161   Iona L 80-86 31%    
  Mar 04, 2020 251   @ Siena L 64-71 29%    
  Mar 06, 2020 295   @ Canisius L 75-79 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.3 0.8 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 3.7 1.1 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.4 3.7 1.0 0.1 12.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.7 4.6 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.5 10th
11th 0.4 1.7 3.1 4.0 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 14.5 11th
Total 0.4 1.7 3.5 5.7 7.5 9.3 10.0 10.6 10.2 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.2 4.2 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 95.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 85.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1
16-4 69.8% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 39.8% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.3% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 38.8% 38.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 34.9% 34.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 33.2% 33.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.0% 25.5% 25.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8
15-5 1.7% 20.6% 20.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4
14-6 2.5% 12.5% 12.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.2
13-7 4.2% 9.6% 9.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.8
12-8 5.2% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.9
11-9 6.8% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.4
10-10 8.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 8.5
9-11 10.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.8
8-12 10.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.1
7-13 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.6
6-14 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.0
5-15 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.3
4-16 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-17 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
2-18 3.5% 3.5
1-19 1.7% 1.7
0-20 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%