Preseason Rankings
Butler
Big East
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#56
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.7#267
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.1% 8.5% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 16.2% 16.9% 3.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.1% 41.5% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.5% 37.9% 13.4%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.2
.500 or above 60.3% 62.2% 26.1%
.500 or above in Conference 46.9% 48.2% 24.6%
Conference Champion 5.7% 5.9% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 10.3% 23.7%
First Four3.0% 3.0% 1.5%
First Round38.5% 39.9% 13.9%
Second Round22.7% 23.6% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen9.1% 9.5% 1.8%
Elite Eight3.3% 3.5% 0.4%
Final Four1.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: IUPUI (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 10
Quad 24 - 38 - 14
Quad 34 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 253   IUPUI W 81-63 95%    
  Nov 09, 2019 243   New Orleans W 78-61 94%    
  Nov 12, 2019 70   Minnesota W 73-68 66%    
  Nov 16, 2019 107   Wofford W 74-65 78%    
  Nov 22, 2019 264   Morehead St. W 80-62 95%    
  Nov 25, 2019 53   Missouri L 66-67 49%    
  Dec 03, 2019 51   @ Mississippi L 71-74 38%    
  Dec 07, 2019 7   Florida L 63-68 34%    
  Dec 10, 2019 15   @ Baylor L 65-73 23%    
  Dec 14, 2019 346   Southern W 80-54 99%    
  Dec 21, 2019 12   Purdue L 67-74 29%    
  Dec 28, 2019 223   Louisiana Monroe W 79-63 91%    
  Dec 31, 2019 93   @ St. John's W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 04, 2020 37   Creighton W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 10, 2020 36   @ Providence L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 15, 2020 17   Seton Hall L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 18, 2020 97   @ DePaul W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 21, 2020 11   @ Villanova L 62-72 21%    
  Jan 24, 2020 27   Marquette W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 28, 2020 54   @ Georgetown L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 01, 2020 36   Providence W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 05, 2020 11   Villanova L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 09, 2020 27   @ Marquette L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 12, 2020 23   Xavier L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 15, 2020 54   Georgetown W 79-76 58%    
  Feb 19, 2020 17   @ Seton Hall L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 23, 2020 37   @ Creighton L 70-75 35%    
  Feb 29, 2020 97   DePaul W 78-70 74%    
  Mar 04, 2020 93   St. John's W 77-69 73%    
  Mar 07, 2020 23   @ Xavier L 66-72 31%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 3.4 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.3 3.3 0.6 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.4 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 6.8 10th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.8 6.1 8.2 9.8 10.8 11.3 11.4 10.2 8.1 6.7 4.6 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 95.8% 0.7    0.7 0.0
15-3 83.3% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 57.0% 1.8    1.0 0.7 0.1
13-5 21.9% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 73.8% 26.2% 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 2.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.8% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 2.8 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.2% 100.0% 20.2% 79.7% 4.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.6% 99.6% 18.6% 81.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 6.7% 95.8% 12.7% 83.2% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.2%
11-7 8.1% 89.2% 8.0% 81.2% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.9 88.3%
10-8 10.2% 69.6% 5.8% 63.8% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 67.7%
9-9 11.4% 48.6% 4.3% 44.3% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.8 46.3%
8-10 11.3% 20.8% 2.1% 18.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.9 19.1%
7-11 10.8% 6.2% 1.1% 5.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.1 5.1%
6-12 9.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.9%
5-13 8.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.2%
4-14 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
3-15 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 2.1
1-17 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 40.1% 5.6% 34.5% 7.1 0.8 1.6 2.8 3.0 3.7 4.5 4.8 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.9 36.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0