Preseason Rankings
Michigan
Big Ten
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#21
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.2#322
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.6% 3.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 9.1% 9.4% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 22.9% 23.6% 5.5%
Top 6 Seed 37.3% 38.3% 11.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.1% 62.3% 30.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.9% 60.2% 29.7%
Average Seed 5.7 5.7 7.1
.500 or above 75.8% 77.1% 43.2%
.500 or above in Conference 60.8% 61.8% 36.5%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.2% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.4% 8.6%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 1.7%
First Round59.9% 61.1% 30.2%
Second Round41.7% 42.6% 18.8%
Sweet Sixteen21.4% 22.0% 7.5%
Elite Eight9.6% 9.9% 2.9%
Final Four4.2% 4.3% 0.7%
Championship Game1.9% 2.0% 0.3%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 33 - 014 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 212   Appalachian St. W 82-63 96%    
  Nov 12, 2019 37   Creighton W 72-67 66%    
  Nov 15, 2019 317   Elon W 81-55 99%    
  Nov 22, 2019 292   Houston Baptist W 88-65 98%    
  Nov 27, 2019 35   Iowa St. W 69-68 55%    
  Dec 03, 2019 6   @ Louisville L 62-71 22%    
  Dec 06, 2019 39   Iowa W 75-70 66%    
  Dec 11, 2019 42   @ Illinois L 71-72 46%    
  Dec 14, 2019 16   Oregon W 64-62 56%    
  Dec 21, 2019 319   Presbyterian W 81-55 99%    
  Dec 29, 2019 263   Umass Lowell W 83-61 97%    
  Jan 05, 2020 1   @ Michigan St. L 62-74 15%    
  Jan 09, 2020 12   Purdue L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 12, 2020 70   @ Minnesota W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 17, 2020 39   @ Iowa L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 22, 2020 43   Penn St. W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 25, 2020 42   Illinois W 74-69 65%    
  Jan 28, 2020 88   @ Nebraska W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 01, 2020 66   Rutgers W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 04, 2020 14   Ohio St. W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 08, 2020 1   Michigan St. L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 12, 2020 99   @ Northwestern W 64-59 67%    
  Feb 16, 2020 47   Indiana W 68-62 68%    
  Feb 19, 2020 66   @ Rutgers W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 22, 2020 12   @ Purdue L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 27, 2020 33   Wisconsin W 63-59 63%    
  Mar 01, 2020 14   @ Ohio St. L 62-67 34%    
  Mar 05, 2020 88   Nebraska W 71-61 79%    
  Mar 08, 2020 9   @ Maryland L 62-69 29%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.4 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 3.3 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.8 2.3 0.3 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.3 6.9 8.8 9.8 10.7 10.6 10.1 9.1 7.3 5.2 4.2 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 90.3% 1.0    0.9 0.2 0.0
17-3 61.8% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
16-4 32.1% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 13.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.2% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.3 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.2% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 3.1 0.4 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.3% 99.9% 12.1% 87.8% 4.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 9.1% 99.5% 7.8% 91.7% 5.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-8 10.1% 97.1% 3.4% 93.7% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 97.0%
11-9 10.6% 90.0% 2.3% 87.7% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.1 89.8%
10-10 10.7% 69.6% 1.4% 68.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 69.1%
9-11 9.8% 37.3% 0.8% 36.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.1 36.8%
8-12 8.8% 12.2% 0.5% 11.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8 11.8%
7-13 6.9% 2.7% 0.1% 2.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.7 2.6%
6-14 5.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.0%
5-15 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 3.8
4-16 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 2.3
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 61.1% 5.3% 55.8% 5.7 3.6 5.5 6.9 7.0 7.5 6.8 6.3 5.8 4.5 3.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 38.9 58.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0