Preseason Rankings
Xavier
Big East
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#23
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.4#294
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.7% 3.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.0% 9.1% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 22.3% 22.5% 5.8%
Top 6 Seed 36.2% 36.5% 12.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.8% 67.2% 35.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.8% 62.2% 30.8%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.6
.500 or above 87.6% 87.9% 63.0%
.500 or above in Conference 70.3% 70.7% 45.4%
Conference Champion 15.6% 15.7% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.9% 14.4%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 4.9%
First Round64.8% 65.2% 31.6%
Second Round43.3% 43.7% 15.7%
Sweet Sixteen21.1% 21.3% 4.6%
Elite Eight10.0% 10.1% 1.4%
Final Four4.3% 4.3% 0.2%
Championship Game1.9% 2.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 210 - 10
Quad 35 - 116 - 10
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 298   Jacksonville W 85-61 99%    
  Nov 08, 2019 251   Siena W 73-52 97%    
  Nov 12, 2019 53   Missouri W 70-64 70%    
  Nov 15, 2019 125   Missouri St. W 75-62 88%    
  Nov 21, 2019 181   Towson W 74-60 90%    
  Nov 30, 2019 177   Lipscomb W 84-67 93%    
  Dec 04, 2019 167   Green Bay W 86-70 92%    
  Dec 07, 2019 29   Cincinnati W 67-64 62%    
  Dec 14, 2019 91   @ Wake Forest W 73-69 66%    
  Dec 18, 2019 215   Western Carolina W 84-65 95%    
  Dec 22, 2019 68   @ TCU W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 30, 2019 11   @ Villanova L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 05, 2020 93   St. John's W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 08, 2020 17   Seton Hall W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 11, 2020 37   Creighton W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 15, 2020 27   @ Marquette L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 22, 2020 54   Georgetown W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 26, 2020 37   @ Creighton L 72-74 45%    
  Jan 29, 2020 27   Marquette W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 01, 2020 17   @ Seton Hall L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 04, 2020 97   @ DePaul W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 08, 2020 36   Providence W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 12, 2020 56   @ Butler W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 17, 2020 93   @ St. John's W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 22, 2020 11   Villanova L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 25, 2020 97   DePaul W 79-68 82%    
  Mar 01, 2020 54   @ Georgetown W 78-77 50%    
  Mar 04, 2020 36   @ Providence L 68-70 44%    
  Mar 07, 2020 56   Butler W 72-66 69%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.3 3.8 4.2 2.9 1.3 0.4 15.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 5.2 3.2 0.9 0.1 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.0 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 4.0 1.1 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.5 3.7 5.3 7.4 9.0 10.5 11.2 11.3 10.9 9.5 7.3 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 97.4% 2.9    2.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 82.5% 4.2    3.1 1.0 0.1
14-4 52.0% 3.8    2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 23.9% 2.3    0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0
12-6 6.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.6% 15.6 10.1 4.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 55.9% 44.1% 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 55.3% 44.7% 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 2.0 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.0% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 2.7 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.3% 99.8% 27.8% 72.0% 3.6 0.4 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 9.5% 99.7% 21.9% 77.8% 4.8 0.2 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 10.9% 98.0% 17.0% 81.0% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.6%
11-7 11.3% 92.7% 10.8% 81.9% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 91.8%
10-8 11.2% 81.7% 9.3% 72.5% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.0 79.9%
9-9 10.5% 59.4% 5.0% 54.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.3 57.3%
8-10 9.0% 30.9% 3.1% 27.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 6.3 28.7%
7-11 7.4% 10.9% 1.4% 9.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.6 9.7%
6-12 5.3% 3.2% 1.6% 1.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 1.6%
5-13 3.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.3%
4-14 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 66.8% 13.1% 53.7% 6.2 3.7 5.3 6.4 6.8 6.7 7.2 6.6 6.5 5.8 5.3 4.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 33.2 61.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 79.0 21.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.5