IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Villanova
Big East
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+16.1	#11
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	61.4	#334
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+8.9	#11

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.2	#20

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.9%	2.9%	0.5%
#1 Seed	12.6%	12.7%	2.9%
Top 2 Seed	26.0%	26.2%	6.9%
Top 4 Seed	47.9%	48.4%	15.1%
Top 6 Seed	63.4%	63.9%	25.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	85.7%	86.0%	56.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	80.5%	81.0%	52.5%
Average Seed	4.6	4.6	6.6

.500 or above	95.4%	95.7%	74.1%
.500 or above in Conference	88.3%	88.6%	68.0%
Conference Champion	36.3%	36.5%	16.4%
Last Place in Conference	1.2%	1.1%	9.1%

First Four	2.1%	2.1%	4.4%
First Round	84.8%	85.2%	54.6%
Second Round	67.2%	67.6%	36.6%
Sweet Sixteen	40.8%	41.1%	16.4%
Elite Eight	22.0%	22.2%	9.0%
Final Four	11.3%	11.4%	4.7%
Championship Game	5.5%	5.5%	1.5%
National Champion	2.6%	2.6%	0.8%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	3 - 4	3 - 4
Quad 1b	4 - 2	6 - 6
Quad 2	6 - 2	13 - 8
Quad 3	6 - 1	19 - 8
Quad 4	4 - 0	23 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	244	Army	W	81-57	99%
Nov 13, 2019	14	@ Ohio St.	L	65-67	44%
Nov 16, 2019	217	Ohio	W	80-58	98%
Nov 21, 2019	174	Middle Tennessee	W	76-59	94%
Dec 01, 2019	189	La Salle	W	80-59	97%
Dec 04, 2019	98	Penn	W	75-60	90%
Dec 07, 2019	221	@ Saint Joseph's	W	77-61	92%
Dec 14, 2019	240	Delaware	W	76-55	96%
Dec 21, 2019	4	Kansas	L	71-72	49%
Dec 30, 2019	23	Xavier	W	70-64	71%
Jan 04, 2020	27	@ Marquette	W	71-70	53%
Jan 07, 2020	37	@ Creighton	W	72-70	56%
Jan 11, 2020	54	Georgetown	W	79-70	78%
Jan 14, 2020	97	DePaul	W	79-64	89%
Jan 18, 2020	73	Connecticut	W	76-64	84%
Jan 21, 2020	56	Butler	W	72-62	79%
Jan 25, 2020	36	@ Providence	W	68-66	56%
Jan 28, 2020	93	@ St. John's	W	75-67	76%
Feb 01, 2020	37	Creighton	W	75-67	74%
Feb 05, 2020	56	@ Butler	W	69-65	62%
Feb 08, 2020	17	Seton Hall	W	72-67	67%
Feb 12, 2020	27	Marquette	W	74-67	71%
Feb 16, 2020	83	@ Temple	W	73-66	71%
Feb 19, 2020	97	@ DePaul	W	76-67	77%
Feb 22, 2020	23	@ Xavier	W	68-67	52%
Feb 26, 2020	93	St. John's	W	78-64	88%
Feb 29, 2020	36	Providence	W	71-63	74%
Mar 04, 2020	17	@ Seton Hall	L	69-70	48%
Mar 07, 2020	54	@ Georgetown	W	76-73	61%
Projected Record						21 - 8	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big East Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.9	3.5	7.4	9.2	7.9	5.4	1.9		36.3	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	1.5	4.5	6.7	4.7	1.8	0.3				19.6	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.4	4.3	5.3	2.1	0.4	0.1					13.6	3rd
4th									0.1	1.2	3.7	3.8	1.1	0.1							10.1	4th
5th								0.1	0.9	3.2	2.4	0.7	0.0								7.3	5th
6th							0.1	0.7	2.1	1.9	0.4	0.0									5.2	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.5	1.5	1.2	0.2	0.0										3.6	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0											2.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0												1.3	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0														0.6	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.1	2.0	3.1	4.5	6.6	8.1	10.3	11.8	12.4	12.5	11.0	8.2	5.4	1.9			Total

Big East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.9		1.9
17-1	100.0%	5.4		5.4	0.0
16-2	96.6%	7.9		7.2	0.7
15-3	83.0%	9.2		6.8	2.2	0.1
14-4	59.0%	7.4		4.4	2.5	0.5	0.0
13-5	28.2%	3.5		1.1	1.6	0.7	0.1
12-6	7.9%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.1%	0.0					0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	36.3%	36.3		26.9	7.6	1.5	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.9%		100.0%	67.7%	32.3%	1.3		1.4	0.4	0.0	0.0															100.0%
17-1	5.4%		100.0%	58.6%	41.4%	1.4		3.5	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0													100.0%
16-2	8.2%		100.0%	51.3%	48.7%	1.8		3.7	3.1	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
15-3	11.0%		100.0%	42.4%	57.6%	2.4		2.7	3.9	2.6	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0								0.0		100.0%
14-4	12.5%		100.0%	34.2%	65.8%	3.3		1.0	2.9	3.7	2.7	1.3	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0		100.0%
13-5	12.4%		99.7%	27.3%	72.4%	4.4		0.2	1.2	2.7	3.1	2.2	1.5	0.9	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.6%
12-6	11.8%		97.8%	20.1%	77.7%	5.7		0.1	0.3	1.1	2.1	2.5	2.0	1.6	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.3		97.2%
11-7	10.3%		93.4%	14.3%	79.1%	7.0		0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.4	1.7	1.8	1.5	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.7		92.3%
10-8	8.1%		83.3%	9.9%	73.4%	8.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.2	1.3	1.1	0.9	0.8	0.3	0.0				1.4		81.5%
9-9	6.6%		64.0%	7.2%	56.9%	9.2				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.3	0.0				2.4		61.3%
8-10	4.5%		34.7%	4.6%	30.1%	9.7					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0				2.9		31.5%
7-11	3.1%		13.7%	2.8%	10.8%	10.5							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1					2.6		11.2%
6-12	2.0%		2.0%	0.8%	1.1%	9.7							0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0					1.9		1.1%
5-13	1.1%		1.9%	1.9%		12.0													0.0					1.1
4-14	0.6%		0.1%	0.1%		13.0														0.0				0.6
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%		1.4%	1.4%		13.0														0.0				0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		85.7%	26.4%	59.2%	4.6		12.6	13.4	11.7	10.2	8.4	7.0	6.3	5.2	4.0	3.2	2.7	0.9	0.0				14.3		80.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.6%	100.0%	1.1	85.1	14.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.1	87.0	13.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.5	47.2	52.8