IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Penn
Ivy League
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.4	#98
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.3	#188
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#126

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.8	#93

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	1.1%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	0.8%	2.4%	0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	22.5%	32.9%	19.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.4%	6.8%	1.5%
Average Seed	12.2	11.2	12.6

.500 or above	74.3%	91.0%	70.2%
.500 or above in Conference	80.8%	89.7%	78.6%
Conference Champion	26.1%	35.1%	23.9%
Last Place in Conference	3.2%	1.1%	3.7%

First Four	1.1%	2.4%	0.8%
First Round	22.0%	31.8%	19.6%
Second Round	5.2%	9.3%	4.2%
Sweet Sixteen	1.6%	3.3%	1.2%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	1 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 2	2 - 6
Quad 3	5 - 3	7 - 9
Quad 4	7 - 1	15 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	45	@ Alabama	L	67-76	20%
Nov 09, 2019	229	@ Rice	W	78-73	68%
Nov 13, 2019	189	La Salle	W	76-67	80%
Nov 19, 2019	261	@ Lafayette	W	78-71	73%
Nov 23, 2019	36	@ Providence	L	65-75	18%
Nov 28, 2019	94	Central Florida	L	66-67	49%
Dec 04, 2019	11	@ Villanova	L	60-75	10%
Dec 30, 2019	337	@ Howard	W	83-69	87%
Jan 04, 2020	143	Princeton	W	72-66	71%
Jan 10, 2020	143	@ Princeton	W	69-68	51%
Jan 18, 2020	221	Saint Joseph's	W	77-66	82%
Jan 25, 2020	83	Temple	W	72-71	53%
Jan 31, 2020	69	Harvard	L	70-71	47%
Feb 01, 2020	193	Dartmouth	W	75-65	78%
Feb 07, 2020	173	@ Columbia	W	73-71	57%
Feb 08, 2020	282	@ Cornell	W	74-66	75%
Feb 14, 2020	171	Brown	W	77-69	75%
Feb 15, 2020	144	Yale	W	78-72	70%
Feb 21, 2020	193	@ Dartmouth	W	72-68	60%
Feb 22, 2020	69	@ Harvard	L	68-74	30%
Feb 28, 2020	144	@ Yale	W	76-75	51%
Feb 29, 2020	171	@ Brown	W	74-72	55%
Mar 06, 2020	282	Cornell	W	77-63	87%
Mar 07, 2020	173	Columbia	W	76-68	74%
Projected Record						14 - 10	9 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ivy League Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st									0.0	0.7	3.6	7.3	7.8	5.0	1.6		26.1	1st
2nd								0.1	1.9	6.8	9.0	5.0	1.2				23.9	2nd
3rd							0.1	1.9	6.7	6.3	1.9	0.1					17.0	3rd
4th						0.1	1.9	5.7	4.1	0.8	0.0						12.5	4th
5th					0.1	1.6	4.3	2.8	0.3	0.0							9.1	5th
6th			0.0	0.1	1.2	2.6	1.9	0.2									6.0	6th
7th		0.0	0.2	0.8	1.7	1.0	0.1										3.8	7th
8th	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0											1.6	8th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.6	3.2	5.3	8.2	10.7	12.9	14.5	14.5	12.4	9.0	5.0	1.6			Total

Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	100.0%	1.6		1.6
13-1	100.0%	5.0		4.7	0.3
12-2	86.3%	7.8		6.0	1.8	0.0
11-3	58.8%	7.3		3.8	3.0	0.5	0.0
10-4	24.9%	3.6		1.0	1.7	0.8	0.1
9-5	5.0%	0.7		0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
8-6	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	26.1%	26.1		17.2	7.1	1.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	1.6%		79.9%	63.8%	16.1%	8.0		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.3		44.4%
13-1	5.0%		69.2%	55.5%	13.6%	10.3			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.7	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0		1.6		30.6%
12-2	9.0%		48.1%	42.1%	6.0%	11.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.6	0.9	0.2	0.1		4.7		10.4%
11-3	12.4%		37.4%	34.5%	2.9%	12.6								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.6	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	7.7		4.4%
10-4	14.5%		26.5%	25.9%	0.6%	13.1											0.0	0.2	1.0	1.3	0.9	0.4	0.0	10.7		0.8%
9-5	14.5%		19.9%	19.8%	0.1%	13.6												0.0	0.4	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.1	11.7		0.1%
8-6	12.9%		11.9%	11.9%	0.1%	14.1													0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.1	11.4		0.1%
7-7	10.7%		4.1%	4.1%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	10.3
6-8	8.2%		0.4%	0.4%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.2
5-9	5.3%																							5.3
4-10	3.2%																							3.2
3-11	1.6%																							1.6
2-12	0.7%																							0.7
1-13	0.2%																							0.2
0-14	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		22.5%	20.6%	1.9%	12.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.7	0.9	2.3	6.0	5.4	3.5	1.9	0.3	77.5		2.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.4		39.5	2.5	39.5	18.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	4.5			50.0			50.0