IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.8	#130
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.9	#260
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.9	#118

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.0	#162

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	21.9%	25.8%	17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.6	13.2	14.1

.500 or above	80.5%	88.7%	70.4%
.500 or above in Conference	85.6%	89.8%	80.6%
Conference Champion	28.3%	33.7%	21.7%
Last Place in Conference	1.3%	0.8%	2.0%

First Four	1.1%	1.0%	1.2%
First Round	21.4%	25.3%	16.6%
Second Round	3.0%	4.1%	1.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.8%	1.1%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Away) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	6 - 5	7 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 3	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	200	@ Boston University	W	72-71	55%
Nov 08, 2019	69	Harvard	L	69-72	38%
Nov 12, 2019	237	@ Massachusetts	W	72-69	61%
Nov 16, 2019	139	Old Dominion	W	65-61	63%
Nov 19, 2019	312	@ Holy Cross	W	70-62	76%
Nov 25, 2019	138	South Alabama	W	71-70	52%
Dec 04, 2019	333	Maine	W	74-58	92%
Dec 07, 2019	52	Davidson	L	66-71	33%
Dec 17, 2019	222	@ Eastern Michigan	W	65-63	58%
Dec 19, 2019	219	@ Detroit Mercy	W	77-75	57%
Dec 28, 2019	181	@ Towson	W	68-67	51%
Dec 30, 2019	232	@ James Madison	W	70-67	60%
Jan 02, 2020	317	Elon	W	79-64	89%
Jan 04, 2020	246	William & Mary	W	79-69	79%
Jan 09, 2020	148	Hofstra	W	76-72	63%
Jan 16, 2020	123	@ College of Charleston	L	67-71	36%
Jan 18, 2020	268	@ UNC Wilmington	W	79-74	66%
Jan 23, 2020	254	Drexel	W	79-69	80%
Jan 25, 2020	240	Delaware	W	72-63	79%
Jan 30, 2020	246	@ William & Mary	W	76-72	62%
Feb 01, 2020	317	@ Elon	W	76-67	76%
Feb 08, 2020	148	@ Hofstra	L	73-75	44%
Feb 13, 2020	268	UNC Wilmington	W	82-71	81%
Feb 15, 2020	123	College of Charleston	W	70-68	56%
Feb 20, 2020	240	@ Delaware	W	69-66	61%
Feb 22, 2020	254	@ Drexel	W	76-72	63%
Feb 27, 2020	232	James Madison	W	73-64	76%
Mar 01, 2020	181	Towson	W	70-64	70%
Projected Record						18 - 10	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.7	2.9	5.9	7.5	6.3	3.8	1.2		28.3	1st
2nd											0.1	1.3	4.8	7.0	5.2	2.2	0.3				21.0	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.8	4.8	5.9	2.9	0.5	0.0					15.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.5	4.4	3.8	1.3	0.1	0.0						11.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.1	1.4	3.4	2.7	0.5	0.0								8.3	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	1.0	2.8	1.8	0.6	0.0									6.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.7	1.8	1.3	0.3	0.0										4.2	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.0											2.5	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0												1.7	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0														0.7	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	2.4	3.6	5.8	7.1	9.6	10.5	12.7	12.9	11.6	9.7	6.6	3.8	1.2			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.2		1.2
17-1	100.0%	3.8		3.7	0.1
16-2	94.9%	6.3		5.3	0.9	0.0
15-3	77.4%	7.5		5.4	2.0	0.1
14-4	50.4%	5.9		3.3	2.1	0.5	0.0
13-5	22.3%	2.9		0.9	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	5.8%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	28.3%	28.3		19.9	6.7	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.2%		76.3%	67.2%	9.2%	9.7			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0			0.3		27.9%
17-1	3.8%		60.7%	56.4%	4.3%	12.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.0		1.5		9.8%
16-2	6.6%		48.8%	47.8%	1.0%	12.8										0.0	0.0	0.2	1.1	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0	3.4		1.9%
15-3	9.7%		38.3%	38.2%	0.1%	13.4											0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.2	0.4	0.1	6.0		0.2%
14-4	11.6%		30.4%	30.4%	0.0%	13.8												0.0	0.3	1.0	1.5	0.7	0.1	8.1		0.0%
13-5	12.9%		23.4%	23.4%		14.3												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.1	0.2	9.8
12-6	12.7%		18.2%	18.2%		14.7													0.0	0.2	0.6	1.1	0.4	10.4
11-7	10.5%		12.0%	12.0%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	9.2
10-8	9.6%		8.2%	8.2%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	8.8
9-9	7.1%		6.7%	6.7%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	6.6
8-10	5.8%		3.8%	3.8%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	5.6
7-11	3.6%		2.3%	2.3%		15.9																0.0	0.1	3.5
6-12	2.4%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
5-13	1.3%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.3
4-14	0.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		21.9%	21.5%	0.4%	13.6			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.8	3.0	5.1	5.8	4.3	2.1	78.1		0.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	5.4			1.9	39.9	23.0	19.2	7.0	0.9	0.9		6.6		0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	97.4%	6.8				35.9	17.9		1.3	2.6	2.6	37.2