Preseason Rankings
Alabama
Southeastern
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#45
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.2#112
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.9% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 4.7% 5.5% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 12.9% 14.9% 4.8%
Top 6 Seed 23.3% 26.5% 10.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.7% 55.8% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.5% 53.7% 27.9%
Average Seed 6.7 6.6 7.5
.500 or above 68.2% 73.8% 45.7%
.500 or above in Conference 55.9% 59.8% 40.4%
Conference Champion 4.3% 5.0% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 4.4% 10.1%
First Four3.7% 3.8% 3.0%
First Round48.8% 54.0% 28.0%
Second Round29.8% 33.2% 15.9%
Sweet Sixteen12.5% 14.1% 5.7%
Elite Eight5.5% 6.2% 2.3%
Final Four2.2% 2.5% 0.8%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Home) - 80.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 36 - 115 - 13
Quad 43 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 98   Penn W 76-67 80%    
  Nov 11, 2019 163   Florida Atlantic W 77-64 90%    
  Nov 15, 2019 86   @ Rhode Island W 73-72 54%    
  Nov 19, 2019 102   Furman W 75-66 80%    
  Nov 27, 2019 5   North Carolina L 79-87 23%    
  Dec 06, 2019 290   Stephen F. Austin W 82-61 96%    
  Dec 14, 2019 43   @ Penn St. L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 18, 2019 142   Samford W 81-72 79%    
  Dec 21, 2019 80   Belmont W 81-77 63%    
  Dec 29, 2019 105   Richmond W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 04, 2020 7   @ Florida L 62-72 20%    
  Jan 08, 2020 48   Mississippi St. W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 11, 2020 2   @ Kentucky L 64-76 15%    
  Jan 15, 2020 25   Auburn W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 18, 2020 53   Missouri W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 22, 2020 124   @ Vanderbilt W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 25, 2020 50   Kansas St. W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 29, 2020 20   @ LSU L 74-80 32%    
  Feb 01, 2020 57   Arkansas W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 04, 2020 30   Tennessee W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 08, 2020 62   @ Georgia L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 12, 2020 25   @ Auburn L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 15, 2020 20   LSU W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 19, 2020 61   Texas A&M W 75-70 64%    
  Feb 22, 2020 51   @ Mississippi L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 25, 2020 48   @ Mississippi St. L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 29, 2020 78   South Carolina W 78-71 70%    
  Mar 03, 2020 124   Vanderbilt W 76-66 81%    
  Mar 07, 2020 53   @ Missouri L 68-70 42%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 8.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.6 0.7 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.3 1.1 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 4.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.8 2.5 0.2 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.0 1.3 0.0 6.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.4 5.9 7.9 9.9 11.6 11.9 11.6 9.8 8.2 6.2 4.1 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1
16-2 77.5% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 54.1% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 24.4% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 36.6% 63.4% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.2% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.1% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 3.4 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.2% 99.5% 11.1% 88.4% 4.8 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-6 8.2% 97.4% 8.2% 89.2% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.2%
11-7 9.8% 92.1% 4.4% 87.7% 7.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 91.8%
10-8 11.6% 76.4% 2.2% 74.2% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 75.9%
9-9 11.9% 54.7% 1.6% 53.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.4 54.0%
8-10 11.6% 25.6% 1.0% 24.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.6 24.8%
7-11 9.9% 7.4% 0.1% 7.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.2 7.3%
6-12 7.9% 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8 1.5%
5-13 5.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.1%
4-14 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 4.4
3-15 2.6% 2.6
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 50.7% 4.2% 46.5% 6.7 1.7 3.0 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.4 1.2 0.0 49.3 48.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0