Preseason Rankings
Auburn
Southeastern
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#25
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#122
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.4% 4.8% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 10.3% 11.3% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 24.1% 26.1% 9.9%
Top 6 Seed 38.2% 40.6% 20.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.5% 71.5% 46.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.0% 69.0% 45.3%
Average Seed 6.0 5.9 6.9
.500 or above 84.9% 87.5% 66.2%
.500 or above in Conference 65.7% 67.8% 49.8%
Conference Champion 7.5% 8.1% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.6% 6.0%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 2.9%
First Round66.9% 69.7% 45.7%
Second Round45.0% 47.3% 27.4%
Sweet Sixteen21.6% 23.1% 10.4%
Elite Eight10.0% 10.9% 4.1%
Final Four4.3% 4.8% 1.1%
Championship Game2.0% 2.2% 0.4%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.1%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 88.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 26 - 311 - 10
Quad 36 - 117 - 11
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 122   Georgia Southern W 88-75 88%    
  Nov 08, 2019 52   Davidson W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 12, 2019 138   @ South Alabama W 77-69 78%    
  Nov 15, 2019 208   Cal St. Northridge W 90-71 95%    
  Nov 18, 2019 127   Colgate W 81-68 88%    
  Nov 25, 2019 92   New Mexico W 87-79 75%    
  Dec 05, 2019 102   Furman W 77-66 84%    
  Dec 14, 2019 141   Saint Louis W 76-64 84%    
  Dec 19, 2019 22   North Carolina St. W 82-79 60%    
  Dec 21, 2019 227   Lehigh W 90-71 95%    
  Dec 29, 2019 177   Lipscomb W 88-71 92%    
  Jan 04, 2020 48   @ Mississippi St. L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 08, 2020 124   Vanderbilt W 79-66 86%    
  Jan 11, 2020 62   Georgia W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 15, 2020 45   @ Alabama L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 18, 2020 7   @ Florida L 64-72 26%    
  Jan 22, 2020 78   South Carolina W 80-71 77%    
  Jan 25, 2020 35   Iowa St. W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 28, 2020 51   @ Mississippi L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 01, 2020 2   Kentucky L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 04, 2020 57   @ Arkansas W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 08, 2020 20   LSU W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 12, 2020 45   Alabama W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 15, 2020 53   @ Missouri L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 19, 2020 62   @ Georgia W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 22, 2020 30   Tennessee W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 25, 2020 51   Mississippi W 79-73 68%    
  Feb 29, 2020 2   @ Kentucky L 67-77 21%    
  Mar 04, 2020 61   Texas A&M W 77-70 72%    
  Mar 07, 2020 30   @ Tennessee L 73-76 41%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 7.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.1 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.5 0.9 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.0 1.1 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.2 1.7 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.3 2.4 0.3 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.4 6.4 8.1 10.5 11.3 11.8 11.3 10.4 7.8 6.0 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.8% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 87.6% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 58.3% 2.3    1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.4% 1.7    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
13-5 7.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 4.4 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 59.2% 40.8% 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 48.2% 51.8% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.1% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.9% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2.1 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.0% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.8 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.8% 100.0% 14.4% 85.5% 3.9 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.4% 99.5% 11.2% 88.3% 5.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-7 11.3% 97.6% 6.5% 91.1% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 97.4%
10-8 11.8% 91.3% 2.8% 88.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.0 91.0%
9-9 11.3% 77.0% 2.4% 74.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.6 76.4%
8-10 10.5% 47.0% 1.5% 45.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.5 46.2%
7-11 8.1% 19.6% 0.7% 19.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.6 19.1%
6-12 6.4% 4.2% 0.2% 4.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.1 4.1%
5-13 4.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.2%
4-14 2.6% 2.6
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 68.5% 7.5% 61.1% 6.0 4.4 5.9 6.7 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.4 6.3 6.1 5.2 4.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 31.5 66.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.1 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 67.3 32.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 97.0 3.0