IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.0	#87
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	58.7	#350
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.7	#97

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.3	#86

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.6%	0.8%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	1.5%	2.0%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	48.7%	52.0%	38.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.2%	1.5%	0.4%
Average Seed	12.9	12.7	13.8

.500 or above	98.1%	99.2%	95.0%
.500 or above in Conference	98.4%	99.1%	96.5%
Conference Champion	62.4%	66.1%	51.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%

First Four	1.2%	1.0%	1.8%
First Round	48.2%	51.6%	38.1%
Second Round	10.7%	12.4%	5.6%
Sweet Sixteen	3.6%	4.2%	1.7%
Elite Eight	0.9%	1.1%	0.3%
Final Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 3	5 - 2	6 - 5
Quad 4	16 - 2	22 - 6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	134	Radford	W	67-60	75%
Nov 10, 2019	350	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	58-33	99%
Nov 12, 2019	323	South Carolina St.	W	77-58	96%
Nov 16, 2019	203	@ East Carolina	W	69-63	70%
Nov 19, 2019	267	Navy	W	71-56	91%
Nov 22, 2019	329	Morgan St.	W	78-61	93%
Dec 08, 2019	137	Grand Canyon	W	69-64	65%
Dec 14, 2019	124	@ Vanderbilt	W	65-64	51%
Dec 20, 2019	181	Towson	W	67-59	74%
Dec 29, 2019	20	@ LSU	L	65-75	20%
Jan 02, 2020	257	@ Florida Gulf Coast	W	69-61	76%
Jan 04, 2020	175	@ NJIT	W	66-62	64%
Jan 09, 2020	313	North Alabama	W	74-56	94%
Jan 11, 2020	298	Jacksonville	W	77-60	92%
Jan 18, 2020	177	Lipscomb	W	76-66	81%
Jan 23, 2020	155	@ North Florida	W	73-70	59%
Jan 25, 2020	336	@ Stetson	W	76-61	89%
Jan 30, 2020	320	Kennesaw St.	W	76-57	94%
Feb 01, 2020	257	Florida Gulf Coast	W	72-58	88%
Feb 06, 2020	298	@ Jacksonville	W	74-63	81%
Feb 08, 2020	313	@ North Alabama	W	71-59	84%
Feb 15, 2020	175	NJIT	W	69-59	79%
Feb 20, 2020	155	North Florida	W	76-67	76%
Feb 22, 2020	336	Stetson	W	79-58	96%
Feb 27, 2020	320	@ Kennesaw St.	W	73-60	85%
Feb 29, 2020	177	@ Lipscomb	W	73-69	63%
Projected Record						20 - 6	13 - 3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	0.9	4.2	11.7	17.8	17.1	10.7		62.4	1st
2nd										0.1	1.1	4.6	7.5	5.3	1.6				20.3	2nd
3rd									0.1	1.0	3.0	3.6	1.7	0.2					9.6	3rd
4th							0.0	0.1	0.7	1.7	1.5	0.4	0.0						4.5	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.1								2.1	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0									0.8	6th
7th					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0										0.3	7th
8th				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0											0.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.0													0.0	9th

Total				0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.9	1.8	3.5	5.8	9.5	13.4	17.3	19.4	17.1	10.7			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	10.7		10.7
15-1	100.0%	17.1		16.4	0.7
14-2	91.7%	17.8		14.3	3.5	0.0
13-3	67.9%	11.7		7.0	4.2	0.5	0.0
12-4	31.1%	4.2		1.7	1.7	0.7	0.1
11-5	9.4%	0.9		0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	62.4%	62.4		50.2	10.4	1.6	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	10.7%		78.8%	75.2%	3.6%	10.3		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.5	1.3	2.3	1.5	0.3	0.1		2.3		14.6%
15-1	17.1%		66.4%	65.4%	1.0%	12.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.1	3.9	3.9	1.5	0.3	0.0	5.7		3.0%
14-2	19.4%		58.3%	58.1%	0.2%	13.2										0.0	0.0	0.2	2.3	4.4	3.3	1.0	0.1	8.1		0.4%
13-3	17.3%		46.9%	46.9%	0.0%	13.8												0.0	0.7	2.5	3.0	1.7	0.2	9.2		0.0%
12-4	13.4%		37.9%	37.9%		14.2													0.2	1.1	1.8	1.6	0.4	8.3
11-5	9.5%		25.8%	25.8%		14.8													0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.6	7.1
10-6	5.8%		17.6%	17.6%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	4.8
9-7	3.5%		17.2%	17.2%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	2.9
8-8	1.8%		13.3%	13.3%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.2	1.6
7-9	0.9%		13.7%	13.7%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8
6-10	0.5%		6.5%	6.5%		16.0																0.0	0.0	0.4
5-11	0.1%		6.8%	6.8%		16.0																	0.0	0.1
4-12	0.1%																							0.1
3-13	0.0%																							0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16

Total	100%		48.7%	48.1%	0.6%	12.9		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.9	2.6	9.4	13.5	10.8	6.3	2.4	51.3		1.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	1.3%	100.0%	5.3	0.7	3.2	11.1	21.4	20.9	21.9	8.3	4.8	2.7	3.5	1.4	0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%	62.4%	9.8				0.5	3.5	3.8	3.8	0.3	4.5	15.5	19.0	11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	46.8%	9.2						1.5		21.4	7.0	8.0	1.5	7.5