Preseason Rankings
Towson
Colonial Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#181
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.9#338
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#210
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 12.3% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.7
.500 or above 52.2% 62.3% 35.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 72.0% 56.0%
Conference Champion 11.7% 14.7% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 3.5% 7.8%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 1.0%
First Round10.1% 12.0% 7.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Home) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 410 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 190   George Washington W 68-65 63%    
  Nov 11, 2019 129   Kent St. L 68-69 48%    
  Nov 14, 2019 7   @ Florida L 52-74 2%    
  Nov 21, 2019 23   Xavier L 60-74 10%    
  Dec 01, 2019 282   @ Cornell W 69-67 59%    
  Dec 04, 2019 329   @ Morgan St. W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 07, 2019 84   @ Vermont L 59-70 18%    
  Dec 10, 2019 206   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 65-61 64%    
  Dec 20, 2019 87   Liberty L 59-67 26%    
  Dec 28, 2019 130   Northeastern L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 30, 2019 148   Hofstra W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 02, 2020 123   @ College of Charleston L 62-70 26%    
  Jan 04, 2020 268   @ UNC Wilmington W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 09, 2020 254   Drexel W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 11, 2020 240   Delaware W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 18, 2020 232   James Madison W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 23, 2020 317   @ Elon W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 25, 2020 246   @ William & Mary W 71-70 50%    
  Jan 30, 2020 268   UNC Wilmington W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 01, 2020 123   College of Charleston L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 06, 2020 240   @ Delaware L 64-65 50%    
  Feb 08, 2020 254   @ Drexel W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 15, 2020 232   @ James Madison L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 20, 2020 246   William & Mary W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 22, 2020 317   Elon W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 27, 2020 148   @ Hofstra L 68-73 33%    
  Mar 01, 2020 130   @ Northeastern L 64-70 30%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 3.1 2.2 1.1 0.2 11.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.9 3.0 1.0 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 4.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 5.1 4.3 1.4 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.4 6.1 7.9 9.9 10.8 11.3 10.9 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
16-2 94.3% 2.2    1.9 0.3
15-3 75.2% 3.1    2.3 0.8 0.0
14-4 46.2% 2.9    1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 19.6% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 7.5 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 75.0% 71.1% 3.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.4%
17-1 1.1% 52.2% 49.0% 3.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.2%
16-2 2.3% 41.0% 39.9% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 1.8%
15-3 4.2% 32.4% 32.4% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 0.0%
14-4 6.3% 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.7 0.0%
13-5 8.7% 19.4% 19.4% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 7.0
12-6 10.4% 13.2% 13.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 9.0
11-7 10.9% 8.6% 8.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 10.0
10-8 11.3% 6.7% 6.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 10.5
9-9 10.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.3
8-10 9.9% 3.6% 3.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.6
7-11 7.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.8
6-12 6.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.1
5-13 4.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-14 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.5% 10.4% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 2.5 2.7 1.7 89.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%