Preseason Rankings
Vermont
America East
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.2#84
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.2#297
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#108
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 2.9% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.2% 62.4% 50.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 2.9% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.8 12.2 13.4
.500 or above 97.0% 99.0% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.7% 98.6%
Conference Champion 70.6% 76.0% 65.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 1.5%
First Round55.6% 61.9% 49.7%
Second Round12.2% 16.4% 8.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 5.7% 2.2%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 12 - 4
Quad 35 - 37 - 6
Quad 417 - 224 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 115   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-63 49%    
  Nov 10, 2019 159   @ Bucknell W 72-69 61%    
  Nov 13, 2019 200   Boston University W 75-63 86%    
  Nov 16, 2019 93   @ St. John's L 71-72 45%    
  Nov 19, 2019 10   @ Virginia L 52-65 12%    
  Nov 23, 2019 342   Central Connecticut St. W 79-59 96%    
  Dec 01, 2019 144   @ Yale W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 03, 2019 29   @ Cincinnati L 59-68 21%    
  Dec 07, 2019 181   Towson W 70-59 82%    
  Dec 18, 2019 96   UNC Greensboro W 69-64 66%    
  Dec 20, 2019 177   Lipscomb W 79-69 81%    
  Dec 31, 2019 190   George Washington W 72-61 83%    
  Jan 02, 2020 193   @ Dartmouth W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 08, 2020 196   Stony Brook W 73-62 83%    
  Jan 11, 2020 206   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 66-60 69%    
  Jan 15, 2020 339   @ Binghamton W 74-58 91%    
  Jan 18, 2020 321   Hartford W 77-58 95%    
  Jan 22, 2020 333   @ Maine W 71-56 89%    
  Jan 25, 2020 263   Umass Lowell W 81-66 89%    
  Jan 29, 2020 334   @ New Hampshire W 70-55 89%    
  Feb 01, 2020 178   @ Albany W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 05, 2020 333   Maine W 74-53 96%    
  Feb 08, 2020 321   @ Hartford W 74-61 86%    
  Feb 12, 2020 334   New Hampshire W 73-52 96%    
  Feb 15, 2020 339   Binghamton W 77-55 96%    
  Feb 20, 2020 196   @ Stony Brook W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 22, 2020 206   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 69-57 83%    
  Feb 29, 2020 263   @ Umass Lowell W 78-69 77%    
  Mar 03, 2020 178   Albany W 73-62 81%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.6 10.6 19.3 21.9 14.5 70.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 6.5 5.6 1.8 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.7 1.3 0.2 6.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.8 6.8 11.4 16.4 21.1 21.9 14.5 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 14.5    14.5
15-1 100.0% 21.9    21.0 0.9
14-2 91.5% 19.3    15.3 4.0 0.1
13-3 64.7% 10.6    6.1 4.0 0.5 0.0
12-4 31.8% 3.6    1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
11-5 9.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 70.6% 70.6 58.2 10.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 14.5% 81.5% 79.0% 2.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.8 3.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 12.1%
15-1 21.9% 71.8% 70.7% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.1 5.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.2 3.9%
14-2 21.1% 59.4% 59.2% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.5 3.5 1.3 0.1 8.6 0.5%
13-3 16.4% 48.8% 48.6% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.9 2.2 2.9 1.7 0.4 8.4 0.3%
12-4 11.4% 39.0% 39.0% 14.3 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.5 7.0
11-5 6.8% 31.2% 31.2% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 4.7
10-6 3.8% 23.9% 23.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 2.9
9-7 2.1% 16.4% 16.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.8
8-8 1.1% 15.6% 15.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
7-9 0.5% 11.5% 11.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-10 0.3% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.1% 23.2% 23.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 56.2% 55.5% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.3 3.6 12.1 15.2 12.1 6.4 2.3 43.8 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.0 7.6 4.5 19.0 46.5 8.3 7.8 2.9 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 5.6 48.5 48.5 3.0