Air Force
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#174
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#196
Pace66.2#273
Improvement+1.8#23

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#154
First Shot+0.5#153
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#165
Layup/Dunks-1.7#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#121
Freethrows+2.4#60
Improvement-0.8#295

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#208
First Shot-2.0#229
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#141
Layups/Dunks-3.2#273
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#38
Freethrows-0.5#204
Improvement+2.6#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.0% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 42.2% 55.3% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 37.1% 43.9% 30.5%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 3.6% 6.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 1.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Neutral) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 35 - 66 - 13
Quad 48 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 308   Idaho St. L 79-89 86%     0 - 1 -22.4 -1.3 -21.1
  Nov 09, 2019 135   Texas St. W 78-71 52%     1 - 1 +5.9 +7.8 -1.7
  Nov 12, 2019 265   @ Army W 69-57 57%     2 - 1 +9.5 -7.2 +16.0
  Nov 18, 2019 56   @ TCU L 54-65 12%     2 - 2 +1.2 -7.3 +7.4
  Nov 21, 2019 175   Loyola Marymount W 65-64 49%    
  Nov 22, 2019 96   Duquesne L 67-73 30%    
  Nov 24, 2019 165   Indiana St. L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 01, 2019 315   Jackson St. W 76-64 87%    
  Dec 04, 2019 277   @ Wyoming W 64-62 59%    
  Dec 07, 2019 126   Nevada W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 14, 2019 293   @ Denver W 72-68 62%    
  Dec 21, 2019 133   Drake W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 31, 2019 275   UC Riverside W 67-59 77%    
  Jan 04, 2020 146   @ UNLV L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 07, 2020 18   Utah St. L 65-76 15%    
  Jan 11, 2020 95   @ New Mexico L 72-81 22%    
  Jan 15, 2020 120   Boise St. L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 18, 2020 150   Colorado St. W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 21, 2020 18   @ Utah St. L 62-79 6%    
  Jan 25, 2020 323   @ San Jose St. W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 28, 2020 123   Fresno St. L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 04, 2020 126   @ Nevada L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 08, 2020 47   San Diego St. L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 11, 2020 120   @ Boise St. L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 15, 2020 323   San Jose St. W 77-64 87%    
  Feb 19, 2020 123   @ Fresno St. L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 22, 2020 277   Wyoming W 67-59 77%    
  Feb 26, 2020 95   New Mexico L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 29, 2020 150   @ Colorado St. L 69-73 35%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.0 1.2 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.8 4.4 1.4 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.0 4.7 1.5 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.0 5.8 1.8 0.1 14.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 5.7 6.2 1.8 0.2 16.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.9 4.9 1.4 0.1 16.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.3 6.5 10.5 12.7 14.1 13.8 12.3 9.9 6.6 4.6 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 96.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 64.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 18.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 20.2% 16.5% 3.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.4%
15-3 0.4% 24.2% 24.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
14-4 0.9% 6.9% 6.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.1% 6.2% 6.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0
12-6 4.6% 5.9% 5.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
11-7 6.6% 6.0% 6.0% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.2
10-8 9.9% 1.9% 1.9% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7
9-9 12.3% 1.2% 1.2% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.2
8-10 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.7
7-11 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1
6-12 12.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6
5-13 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 10.5
4-14 6.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 6.4
3-15 3.3% 3.3
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 98.5 0.0%