Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#265
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#279
Pace70.0#163
Improvement+0.7#148

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#314
First Shot-3.7#291
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#299
Layup/Dunks+2.7#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#300
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#284
Freethrows-0.6#210
Improvement+1.7#83

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#168
First Shot+0.9#131
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#270
Layups/Dunks-1.2#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#45
Freethrows-0.4#216
Improvement-1.0#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.4% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.6% 2.4% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 42.1% 54.3% 24.6%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 5.3% 17.5%
First Four3.5% 3.9% 2.9%
First Round2.2% 2.6% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 58.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 31 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 35   @ BYU L 58-76 4%     0 - 1 -3.3 -12.5 +10.2
  Nov 09, 2019 44   @ Stanford L 54-70 5%     0 - 2 -2.4 -11.0 +9.2
  Nov 13, 2019 279   @ Wyoming W 60-53 42%     1 - 2 +3.3 -6.7 +10.6
  Nov 24, 2019 151   Hofstra L 57-79 36%     1 - 3 -24.0 -20.8 -2.4
  Nov 27, 2019 335   Southeast Missouri St. W 64-57 70%     2 - 3 -4.3 -15.1 +10.9
  Nov 29, 2019 317   Denver L 62-65 64%     2 - 4 -12.4 -11.3 -1.2
  Nov 30, 2019 145   @ Santa Clara L 55-70 18%     2 - 5 -10.9 -16.0 +5.0
  Dec 04, 2019 159   @ Pacific L 59-62 20%     2 - 6 +0.2 -0.8 +0.5
  Dec 07, 2019 213   Sacramento St. L 59-62 51%     2 - 7 -9.1 -8.9 -0.3
  Dec 11, 2019 190   San Diego L 54-66 46%     2 - 8 -16.8 -18.0 +1.1
  Dec 14, 2019 105   San Francisco L 69-91 24%     2 - 9 -20.3 -8.9 -10.3
  Dec 22, 2019 192   @ Loyola Marymount L 46-53 27%     2 - 10 -6.2 -19.5 +12.2
  Dec 28, 2019 117   @ UCLA W 77-74 13%     3 - 10 +9.3 +8.8 +0.6
  Jan 09, 2020 172   Hawaii L 69-75 41%     3 - 11 0 - 1 -9.4 -4.9 -4.5
  Jan 11, 2020 237   @ UC Riverside L 59-65 34%     3 - 12 0 - 2 -7.4 -9.9 +2.1
  Jan 15, 2020 115   UC Irvine L 61-74 27%     3 - 13 0 - 3 -12.5 -9.6 -3.2
  Jan 18, 2020 292   @ Long Beach St. W 66-62 46%     4 - 13 1 - 3 -0.7 -9.9 +9.0
  Jan 22, 2020 252   @ UC Davis W 78-74 36%     5 - 13 2 - 3 +1.8 +1.4 +0.3
  Jan 25, 2020 254   Cal St. Northridge W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 30, 2020 331   @ Cal Poly W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 01, 2020 115   @ UC Irvine L 60-72 12%    
  Feb 05, 2020 237   UC Riverside W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 08, 2020 252   UC Davis W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 15, 2020 331   Cal Poly W 69-61 77%    
  Feb 20, 2020 178   UC Santa Barbara L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 28, 2020 172   @ Hawaii L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 29, 2020 254   @ Cal St. Northridge L 72-75 37%    
  Mar 05, 2020 178   @ UC Santa Barbara L 62-70 23%    
  Mar 07, 2020 292   Long Beach St. W 73-68 67%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.2 0.1 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 7.1 3.2 0.3 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 9.5 4.6 0.3 16.3 4th
5th 0.8 8.6 7.0 0.5 16.9 5th
6th 0.4 5.7 9.0 1.4 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.2 3.5 9.3 2.0 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 6.2 2.7 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 2.1 0.9 0.0 4.5 9th
Total 0.3 1.4 5.0 11.0 18.5 21.8 20.4 13.4 5.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 73.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 20.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
10-6 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.5% 22.2% 22.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4
11-5 1.9% 10.4% 10.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.7
10-6 5.9% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.5
9-7 13.4% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.7 12.6
8-8 20.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.9 19.4
7-9 21.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.9 20.9
6-10 18.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.5 18.0
5-11 11.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.8
4-12 5.0% 5.0
3-13 1.4% 1.4
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.8 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%