Central Arkansas
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#306
Expected Predictive Rating-9.7#315
Pace80.8#17
Improvement+2.6#70

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#236
First Shot-2.0#245
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#178
Layup/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
Freethrows+1.5#73
Improvement+2.9#38

Defense
Total Defense-6.7#337
First Shot-6.3#338
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#200
Layups/Dunks-1.5#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#335
Freethrows-1.0#247
Improvement-0.3#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 32.5% 49.7% 21.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 14
Quad 48 - 89 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 5   @ Baylor L 61-105 1%     0 - 1 -24.0 -7.7 -11.3
  Nov 10, 2019 50   @ Georgetown L 78-89 3%     0 - 2 +2.0 -2.5 +6.1
  Nov 12, 2019 2   @ Duke L 54-105 1%     0 - 3 -28.0 -14.8 -6.5
  Nov 17, 2019 142   Arkansas Little Rock L 56-76 24%     0 - 4 -21.5 -16.0 -5.4
  Nov 22, 2019 184   @ California Baptist L 98-104 OT 16%     0 - 5 -4.0 +4.5 -7.3
  Nov 23, 2019 200   Prairie View L 72-78 OT 28%     0 - 6 -8.6 -14.0 +6.6
  Dec 05, 2019 42   @ Wichita St. L 69-95 3%     0 - 7 -12.3 -8.0 +1.0
  Dec 07, 2019 115   @ Utah L 67-98 8%     0 - 8 -24.3 -13.7 -6.7
  Dec 14, 2019 147   @ Pepperdine L 79-92 12%     0 - 9 -9.0 -3.8 -3.7
  Dec 18, 2019 346   Incarnate Word W 88-82 OT 83%     1 - 9 1 - 0 -13.2 -8.9 -5.3
  Dec 21, 2019 294   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71-67 56%     2 - 9 2 - 0 -6.5 -5.3 -1.2
  Dec 28, 2019 27   @ Marquette L 54-106 2%     2 - 10 -36.6 -17.3 -14.3
  Jan 02, 2020 344   @ Houston Baptist L 107-111 OT 63%     2 - 11 2 - 1 -16.1 -8.7 -6.3
  Jan 04, 2020 278   McNeese St. W 79-69 52%     3 - 11 3 - 1 +0.7 -5.4 +5.5
  Jan 08, 2020 322   @ New Orleans L 78-86 43%     3 - 12 3 - 2 -15.0 -4.6 -9.9
  Jan 11, 2020 186   Sam Houston St. W 89-82 31%     4 - 12 4 - 2 +3.3 +6.8 -4.1
  Jan 15, 2020 138   Stephen F. Austin L 76-77 23%     4 - 13 4 - 3 -2.1 +3.8 -6.0
  Jan 18, 2020 209   @ Nicholls St. L 72-79 20%     4 - 14 4 - 4 -7.1 +1.5 -8.6
  Jan 25, 2020 207   Abilene Christian L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 29, 2020 326   SE Louisiana W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 01, 2020 328   @ Northwestern St. L 80-81 45%    
  Feb 05, 2020 279   @ Lamar L 73-78 31%    
  Feb 08, 2020 278   @ McNeese St. L 79-84 31%    
  Feb 12, 2020 322   New Orleans W 82-78 64%    
  Feb 15, 2020 186   @ Sam Houston St. L 75-86 15%    
  Feb 19, 2020 138   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-87 10%    
  Feb 22, 2020 209   Nicholls St. L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 29, 2020 207   @ Abilene Christian L 72-81 21%    
  Mar 04, 2020 326   @ SE Louisiana L 79-81 43%    
  Mar 07, 2020 328   Northwestern St. W 83-79 66%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 3.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.7 0.2 7.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 7.2 4.2 0.4 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 7.8 5.6 0.7 0.0 15.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 7.1 7.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 16.8 8th
9th 0.4 4.8 8.3 2.4 0.1 16.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.0 3.2 0.2 0.0 13.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.5 3.9 2.0 0.2 7.8 11th
12th 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.5 2.7 8.0 14.9 20.9 20.5 16.3 9.9 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 22.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.5% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 1.4
12-8 4.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 4.2
11-9 9.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.8
10-10 16.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 16.2
9-11 20.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 20.4
8-12 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.8
7-13 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
6-14 8.0% 8.0
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%