College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#127
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#107
Pace64.2#307
Improvement-1.3#235

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#76
First Shot+4.4#56
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#251
Layup/Dunks-2.2#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#98
Freethrows+2.6#22
Improvement-0.4#205

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#185
First Shot-0.3#166
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#215
Layups/Dunks+1.2#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement-0.9#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.0% 25.5% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 97.8%
Conference Champion 42.7% 44.7% 18.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.0% 25.5% 19.6%
Second Round3.2% 3.3% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 92.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 38 - 510 - 9
Quad 411 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 330   South Carolina Upstate W 74-55 92%     1 - 0 +5.7 -3.3 +9.6
  Nov 09, 2019 111   Georgia St. W 84-80 56%     2 - 0 +5.2 +5.1 -0.2
  Nov 13, 2019 68   Oklahoma St. L 54-73 41%     2 - 1 -14.1 -7.1 -9.3
  Nov 19, 2019 156   @ Marshall W 76-66 47%     3 - 1 +13.4 -2.1 +14.6
  Nov 23, 2019 110   @ Central Florida W 73-70 34%     4 - 1 +9.9 +9.1 +0.9
  Nov 28, 2019 105   Wake Forest L 56-65 42%     4 - 2 -4.4 -10.0 +4.7
  Nov 29, 2019 61   Providence W 63-55 30%     5 - 2 +16.2 +1.1 +15.8
  Dec 01, 2019 110   Central Florida L 56-77 44%     5 - 3 -17.0 -3.9 -16.2
  Dec 14, 2019 80   @ Richmond L 71-78 25%     5 - 4 +2.7 +4.3 -1.9
  Dec 18, 2019 45   Virginia Commonwealth L 71-76 31%     5 - 5 +2.7 +6.8 -4.2
  Dec 21, 2019 319   South Carolina St. W 73-61 91%     6 - 5 -0.5 -9.1 +8.6
  Dec 28, 2019 199   @ Drexel W 76-65 59%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +11.3 +6.8 +5.0
  Dec 30, 2019 206   @ Delaware W 75-63 60%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +12.1 +0.2 +11.9
  Jan 02, 2020 179   Towson W 81-69 72%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +8.4 +12.2 -2.8
  Jan 04, 2020 267   James Madison W 85-69 86%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +7.2 +2.8 +3.6
  Jan 09, 2020 307   @ Elon W 73-65 79%     11 - 5 5 - 0 +2.0 +0.7 +1.8
  Jan 11, 2020 164   @ William & Mary L 56-67 49%     11 - 6 5 - 1 -8.0 -8.2 -1.5
  Jan 16, 2020 139   Northeastern L 76-79 64%     11 - 7 5 - 2 -4.2 +0.7 -4.9
  Jan 18, 2020 143   Hofstra W 69-67 66%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +0.4 +1.5 -0.8
  Jan 25, 2020 314   UNC Wilmington W 75-60 92%    
  Jan 30, 2020 267   @ James Madison W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 01, 2020 179   @ Towson W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 06, 2020 164   William & Mary W 74-69 69%    
  Feb 08, 2020 307   Elon W 76-62 91%    
  Feb 13, 2020 143   @ Hofstra L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 15, 2020 139   @ Northeastern L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 22, 2020 314   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-63 80%    
  Feb 27, 2020 206   Delaware W 74-66 78%    
  Feb 29, 2020 199   Drexel W 74-66 78%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 9.5 17.1 11.7 3.0 42.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.6 12.9 5.5 0.5 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 4.1 8.8 3.2 0.2 16.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.0 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.3 10.7 19.8 25.6 22.8 12.2 3.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.0    2.9 0.1
15-3 95.7% 11.7    9.8 1.9 0.0
14-4 75.1% 17.1    9.4 6.9 0.9 0.0
13-5 36.9% 9.5    2.4 4.2 2.4 0.4 0.0
12-6 6.9% 1.4    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.7% 42.7 24.5 13.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.0% 39.6% 39.6% 12.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8
15-3 12.2% 35.6% 35.6% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 1.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.9 0.0%
14-4 22.8% 30.5% 30.5% 13.1 0.0 1.2 4.0 1.6 0.1 15.8
13-5 25.6% 24.9% 24.9% 13.5 0.4 3.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 19.3
12-6 19.8% 19.2% 19.2% 13.8 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 16.0
11-7 10.7% 15.1% 15.1% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 9.1
10-8 4.3% 13.7% 13.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.7
9-9 1.3% 10.2% 10.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
8-10 0.2% 9.2% 9.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.2 4.2 11.0 7.7 1.8 0.1 75.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 12.1 13.0 67.8 18.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%