Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#148
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#165
Pace77.9#22
Improvement+0.4#157

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#171
First Shot+0.4#159
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#175
Layup/Dunks-0.4#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#76
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement-0.3#190

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#145
First Shot+0.4#152
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#149
Layups/Dunks-4.4#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#5
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#127
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement+0.7#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 11.0% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 84.3% 87.6% 65.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 94.8% 78.0%
Conference Champion 7.6% 8.6% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round10.2% 10.9% 6.1%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 35 - 65 - 12
Quad 412 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 29   @ Auburn L 74-83 10%     0 - 1 +6.4 -0.4 +7.9
  Nov 11, 2019 172   @ North Florida L 77-80 45%     0 - 2 -0.6 -12.2 +12.2
  Nov 15, 2019 169   Radford W 76-73 67%     1 - 2 -0.3 -0.9 +0.6
  Nov 19, 2019 221   Mercer W 98-88 77%     2 - 2 +3.5 +9.2 -7.0
  Nov 29, 2019 274   Campbell W 84-74 77%     3 - 2 +3.5 -0.9 +3.3
  Nov 30, 2019 242   North Dakota L 68-80 71%     3 - 3 -16.7 -10.4 -6.1
  Dec 01, 2019 310   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 72-57 75%     4 - 3 +9.2 -2.8 +11.6
  Dec 15, 2019 106   @ Bradley L 51-81 27%     4 - 4 -22.5 -15.5 -8.3
  Dec 19, 2019 133   Texas St. W 67-64 58%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +2.0 -3.8 +5.8
  Dec 21, 2019 114   Texas Arlington W 77-74 52%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +3.5 -0.4 +3.7
  Dec 23, 2019 83   @ Georgia L 64-73 21%     6 - 5 +0.5 -5.1 +5.6
  Jan 02, 2020 187   @ Coastal Carolina W 70-67 48%     7 - 5 3 - 0 +4.7 -6.3 +10.9
  Jan 04, 2020 189   @ Appalachian St. L 72-74 49%     7 - 6 3 - 1 -0.5 -4.5 +4.1
  Jan 06, 2020 140   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 73-79 37%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -1.5 +2.5 -3.9
  Jan 09, 2020 276   Louisiana Monroe W 67-56 84%     8 - 7 4 - 2 +1.6 -2.4 +5.4
  Jan 11, 2020 245   Louisiana W 71-51 80%     9 - 7 5 - 2 +12.2 -4.2 +16.9
  Jan 16, 2020 283   @ Troy W 82-66 68%     10 - 7 6 - 2 +12.2 +11.6 +1.3
  Jan 18, 2020 180   @ South Alabama L 68-74 46%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -3.9 -1.5 -2.7
  Jan 25, 2020 107   Georgia St. L 77-82 49%     10 - 9 6 - 4 -3.5 -6.0 +3.2
  Jan 30, 2020 283   Troy W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 01, 2020 180   South Alabama W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 06, 2020 276   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 08, 2020 245   @ Louisiana W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 13, 2020 187   Coastal Carolina W 81-76 69%    
  Feb 15, 2020 189   Appalachian St. W 75-70 70%    
  Feb 20, 2020 133   @ Texas St. L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 22, 2020 114   @ Texas Arlington L 71-76 31%    
  Feb 29, 2020 107   @ Georgia St. L 75-81 28%    
  Mar 03, 2020 197   Arkansas St. W 78-72 73%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 3.6 2.5 0.4 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.4 5.8 1.2 0.0 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 9.6 10.1 1.9 0.1 23.1 3rd
4th 0.4 6.6 10.6 1.9 0.0 19.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 8.8 2.4 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.6 5.3 2.9 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 3.2 0.4 5.9 7th
8th 0.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.5 11.9 20.2 24.1 20.5 11.4 3.9 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 90.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-5 65.6% 2.5    1.2 1.0 0.3
14-6 31.3% 3.6    0.7 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.3% 1.1    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 2.2 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.4% 24.7% 24.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 3.9% 25.7% 25.7% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.9
14-6 11.4% 23.3% 23.3% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 8.7
13-7 20.5% 15.6% 15.6% 14.4 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.1 17.3
12-8 24.1% 8.2% 8.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.1 22.1
11-9 20.2% 4.6% 4.6% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 19.2
10-10 11.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.6
9-11 5.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.4
8-12 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.9 0.4 89.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.5 12.2 36.7 38.8 12.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%