Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#148
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#228
Pace72.5#106
Improvement+0.3#128

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#103
First Shot-0.1#172
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#68
Layup/Dunks+0.1#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#310
Freethrows+2.9#47
Improvement+0.2#133

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#211
First Shot+4.8#57
After Offensive Rebounds-6.2#350
Layups/Dunks+5.8#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#192
Freethrows-4.9#336
Improvement+0.2#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 12.4% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 56.4% 63.9% 36.5%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 75.1% 59.8%
Conference Champion 13.1% 14.6% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.2% 4.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round10.8% 12.3% 6.7%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Neutral) - 72.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 12
Quad 49 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 127   @ College of Charleston L 80-84 34%     0 - 1 +1.3 +3.3 -1.7
  Nov 15, 2019 2   @ Duke L 63-74 3%     0 - 2 +12.2 -0.5 +13.3
  Nov 17, 2019 76   @ Georgetown L 83-91 20%     0 - 3 +1.9 +4.3 -1.6
  Nov 22, 2019 270   Prairie View W 78-71 73%    
  Nov 27, 2019 213   Charlotte W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 03, 2019 205   Dartmouth W 70-64 72%    
  Dec 07, 2019 221   @ Mercer W 83-82 54%    
  Dec 19, 2019 110   Texas Arlington W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 21, 2019 135   Texas St. W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 23, 2019 94   @ SMU L 67-74 25%    
  Jan 02, 2020 187   @ Appalachian St. L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 04, 2020 168   @ Coastal Carolina L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 06, 2020 256   @ Arkansas St. W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 09, 2020 223   Louisiana W 84-77 74%    
  Jan 11, 2020 232   Louisiana Monroe W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 16, 2020 161   @ South Alabama L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 18, 2020 302   @ Troy W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 25, 2020 112   @ Georgia Southern L 79-84 32%    
  Jan 30, 2020 161   South Alabama W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 01, 2020 302   Troy W 82-70 86%    
  Feb 06, 2020 223   @ Louisiana W 81-80 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 232   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 13, 2020 187   Appalachian St. W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 15, 2020 168   Coastal Carolina W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 20, 2020 110   @ Texas Arlington L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 22, 2020 135   @ Texas St. L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 29, 2020 112   Georgia Southern W 82-81 52%    
  Mar 03, 2020 173   Arkansas Little Rock W 76-71 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.0 3.2 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.2 13.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.4 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.0 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.1 2.7 0.4 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.1 3.4 4.8 7.2 9.3 10.2 11.4 11.7 11.1 9.2 7.4 4.8 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 98.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
17-3 92.0% 2.6    2.1 0.5 0.0
16-4 66.9% 3.2    2.1 0.9 0.2
15-5 40.6% 3.0    1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0
14-6 17.5% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 8.1 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 60.6% 58.7% 1.8% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.4%
19-1 0.5% 46.4% 41.0% 5.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.2%
18-2 1.6% 46.1% 44.6% 1.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 2.7%
17-3 2.8% 38.5% 38.5% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7
16-4 4.8% 34.5% 34.5% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.1
15-5 7.4% 25.0% 25.0% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.6
14-6 9.2% 20.8% 20.8% 13.9 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 7.3
13-7 11.1% 14.4% 14.4% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 9.5
12-8 11.7% 7.5% 7.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 10.8
11-9 11.4% 4.0% 4.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.0
10-10 10.2% 1.3% 1.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.1
9-11 9.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
8-12 7.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 7.2
7-13 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.8
6-14 3.4% 3.4
5-15 2.1% 2.1
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.4 2.0 0.3 89.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 61.9 4.8 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 4.0% 10.0 4.0