Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#111
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#117
Pace76.4#36
Improvement-0.2#195

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#103
First Shot+1.1#140
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#79
Layup/Dunks+0.7#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#148
Freethrows-0.8#236
Improvement-1.9#271

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#128
First Shot+2.4#93
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#258
Layups/Dunks+0.5#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#10
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#74
Freethrows-3.4#332
Improvement+1.7#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.9% 31.5% 22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.8% 97.9%
Conference Champion 41.7% 57.3% 27.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round26.8% 31.5% 22.7%
Second Round4.2% 5.3% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 39 - 510 - 10
Quad 410 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 126   @ College of Charleston L 80-84 44%     0 - 1 +1.4 +2.0 -0.3
  Nov 15, 2019 2   @ Duke L 63-74 5%     0 - 2 +12.0 -2.1 +14.7
  Nov 17, 2019 48   @ Georgetown L 83-91 20%     0 - 3 +5.0 +4.8 +1.1
  Nov 22, 2019 210   Prairie View W 83-74 75%     1 - 3 +5.9 +7.0 -1.5
  Nov 23, 2019 183   @ California Baptist W 69-60 58%     2 - 3 +11.0 -8.2 +18.8
  Nov 27, 2019 182   Charlotte W 81-78 OT 77%     3 - 3 -0.6 +3.7 -4.5
  Dec 03, 2019 212   Dartmouth W 83-80 OT 83%     4 - 3 -3.0 +3.2 -6.4
  Dec 07, 2019 238   @ Mercer W 73-61 70%     5 - 3 +10.6 -3.1 +13.3
  Dec 19, 2019 121   Texas Arlington W 83-77 64%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +6.2 -0.2 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2019 135   Texas St. W 81-69 68%     7 - 3 2 - 0 +11.3 +8.2 +3.1
  Dec 23, 2019 76   @ SMU L 76-85 28%     7 - 4 +1.0 -4.7 +6.9
  Jan 02, 2020 204   @ Appalachian St. W 69-60 65%     8 - 4 3 - 0 +9.1 -9.9 +18.1
  Jan 04, 2020 165   @ Coastal Carolina L 72-74 54%     8 - 5 3 - 1 +0.9 -7.3 +8.4
  Jan 06, 2020 213   @ Arkansas St. L 87-90 67%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -3.4 +11.9 -15.3
  Jan 09, 2020 263   Louisiana W 90-52 87%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +29.6 +8.2 +19.5
  Jan 11, 2020 258   Louisiana Monroe W 84-62 87%     10 - 6 5 - 2 +13.8 +11.2 +3.8
  Jan 16, 2020 174   @ South Alabama W 72-63 56%     11 - 6 6 - 2 +11.3 -0.6 +12.0
  Jan 18, 2020 264   @ Troy L 65-75 75%     11 - 7 6 - 3 -12.9 -10.1 -2.6
  Jan 25, 2020 141   @ Georgia Southern L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 30, 2020 174   South Alabama W 76-69 76%    
  Feb 01, 2020 264   Troy W 80-67 89%    
  Feb 06, 2020 263   @ Louisiana W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 08, 2020 258   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 13, 2020 204   Appalachian St. W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 165   Coastal Carolina W 82-75 74%    
  Feb 20, 2020 121   @ Texas Arlington L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 22, 2020 135   @ Texas St. L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 29, 2020 141   Georgia Southern W 80-75 70%    
  Mar 03, 2020 145   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-70 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 3.6 12.7 15.2 8.2 1.9 41.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 10.0 8.7 2.2 0.2 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.6 6.2 6.9 1.1 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.3 1.2 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.3 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 1.3 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 8.2 15.2 21.8 22.5 17.4 8.4 1.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
16-4 98.2% 8.2    7.6 0.6 0.0
15-5 87.1% 15.2    10.6 4.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 56.4% 12.7    4.6 5.8 2.1 0.2 0.0
13-7 16.5% 3.6    0.3 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.7% 41.7 25.0 11.8 3.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.9% 51.4% 51.2% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.5%
16-4 8.4% 45.5% 45.5% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 1.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 4.5 0.1%
15-5 17.4% 39.2% 39.2% 13.0 0.0 1.3 4.0 1.5 0.0 10.6
14-6 22.5% 32.0% 32.0% 13.4 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.8 0.3 15.3
13-7 21.8% 22.0% 22.0% 13.7 0.2 1.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 17.0
12-8 15.2% 15.0% 15.0% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 12.9
11-9 8.2% 9.0% 9.0% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.4
10-10 3.5% 5.4% 5.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
9-11 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.9% 26.8% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.5 12.0 8.5 1.7 0.0 73.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.0 0.1 0.4 14.3 73.5 11.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 1.2% 11.8 0.2 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%