Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#217
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#235
Pace68.0#218
Improvement-3.8#317

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#245
First Shot-1.5#224
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#243
Layup/Dunks-3.4#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#83
Freethrows-2.1#311
Improvement-4.6#346

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#196
First Shot-1.1#191
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#163
Layups/Dunks-0.5#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#210
Freethrows-1.3#266
Improvement+0.8#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 1.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.2% 13.5% 54.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 115 - 19
Quad 44 - 39 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 99   Belmont W 79-72 30%     1 - 0 +9.1 +7.9 +1.4
  Nov 10, 2019 140   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-70 42%     2 - 0 +3.7 +4.4 -0.6
  Nov 17, 2019 112   Central Florida L 65-67 33%     2 - 1 -0.9 -4.7 +3.9
  Nov 22, 2019 43   Cincinnati L 65-66 10%     2 - 2 +9.6 +0.6 +9.0
  Nov 23, 2019 103   Western Kentucky L 69-83 22%     2 - 3 -9.3 +4.7 -15.6
  Nov 25, 2019 227   Grand Canyon L 63-68 52%     2 - 4 -8.8 -10.1 +1.0
  Dec 03, 2019 60   @ TCU L 69-81 9%     2 - 5 -0.8 +1.1 -1.5
  Dec 07, 2019 313   Morehead St. W 61-50 80%     3 - 5 -1.0 -15.4 +14.8
  Dec 15, 2019 126   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-79 21%     3 - 6 -9.7 -4.0 -6.2
  Dec 18, 2019 206   Illinois-Chicago W 67-66 59%     4 - 6 -4.7 -8.0 +3.3
  Dec 21, 2019 167   @ Texas San Antonio L 70-89 28%     4 - 7 -16.3 -13.0 -1.2
  Dec 31, 2019 61   Northern Iowa W 76-70 20%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +11.4 +7.2 +4.5
  Jan 04, 2020 165   @ Southern Illinois L 55-67 28%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -9.2 -14.4 +5.4
  Jan 07, 2020 143   Missouri St. L 63-67 43%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -5.5 -5.5 -0.2
  Jan 11, 2020 123   @ Indiana St. L 52-65 20%     5 - 10 1 - 3 -7.3 -18.7 +11.2
  Jan 16, 2020 146   @ Drake L 74-84 24%     5 - 11 1 - 4 -5.8 +7.4 -13.6
  Jan 19, 2020 90   Loyola Chicago L 50-62 27%     5 - 12 1 - 5 -9.0 -15.5 +5.8
  Jan 22, 2020 106   @ Bradley L 63-75 16%     5 - 13 1 - 6 -4.5 -0.3 -5.2
  Jan 25, 2020 165   Southern Illinois L 55-58 49%     5 - 14 1 - 7 -6.0 -11.9 +5.6
  Jan 29, 2020 266   Evansville W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 01, 2020 164   @ Valparaiso L 67-73 28%    
  Feb 05, 2020 143   @ Missouri St. L 61-69 23%    
  Feb 08, 2020 123   Indiana St. L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 12, 2020 61   @ Northern Iowa L 60-75 9%    
  Feb 15, 2020 164   Valparaiso L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 19, 2020 90   @ Loyola Chicago L 57-69 12%    
  Feb 22, 2020 146   Drake L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 26, 2020 106   Bradley L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 29, 2020 266   @ Evansville L 67-68 48%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.4 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 5.7 4.0 0.3 12.0 8th
9th 2.2 12.0 21.2 20.8 8.9 1.2 0.0 66.3 9th
10th 1.7 5.5 5.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 15.2 10th
Total 1.7 7.7 17.6 23.5 23.1 15.0 7.8 2.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 36.0% 36.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 14.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-11 7.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.7
6-12 15.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.9
5-13 23.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 22.9
4-14 23.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 23.4
3-15 17.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.5
2-16 7.7% 7.7
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%