Kent St.
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#113
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#110
Pace69.4#172
Improvement-3.2#295

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#94
First Shot+4.7#51
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#297
Layup/Dunks+1.1#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#57
Freethrows-1.2#270
Improvement-1.3#250

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#142
First Shot+2.4#95
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#309
Layups/Dunks-0.3#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#155
Freethrows+0.1#186
Improvement-1.9#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 16.7% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.7
.500 or above 98.9% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 88.1% 95.0% 83.1%
Conference Champion 8.6% 14.0% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round13.5% 16.6% 11.2%
Second Round2.3% 2.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 13 - 4
Quad 38 - 611 - 10
Quad 49 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2019 160   @ Towson W 84-80 OT 52%     1 - 0 +7.1 +2.9 +3.7
  Nov 16, 2019 105   @ Wright St. W 72-71 36%     2 - 0 +8.5 +0.5 +8.0
  Nov 19, 2019 270   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 88%     3 - 0 -1.9 -7.3 +5.0
  Nov 25, 2019 13   @ Ohio St. L 52-71 10%     3 - 1 -1.5 -8.6 +6.1
  Nov 30, 2019 303   Stetson W 77-53 91%     4 - 1 +12.7 +3.0 +11.0
  Dec 03, 2019 269   Detroit Mercy W 92-57 87%     5 - 1 +26.3 +8.6 +16.0
  Dec 07, 2019 306   Cleveland St. W 81-59 92%     6 - 1 +10.5 +5.0 +5.6
  Dec 16, 2019 122   UC Irvine L 68-74 53%     6 - 2 -3.1 -4.8 +1.8
  Dec 17, 2019 291   N.C. A&T W 85-71 OT 85%     7 - 2 +6.7 +2.1 +3.2
  Dec 21, 2019 307   Hampton W 103-64 92%     8 - 2 +27.4 +19.8 +7.9
  Dec 30, 2019 41   @ Mississippi St. L 68-96 17%     8 - 3 -14.2 -1.6 -11.7
  Jan 03, 2020 147   @ Bowling Green W 79-61 49%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +22.0 +2.7 +18.6
  Jan 07, 2020 121   Toledo W 84-77 64%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +7.0 +11.7 -4.5
  Jan 11, 2020 182   Central Michigan W 79-73 76%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +2.2 -3.8 +5.6
  Jan 14, 2020 203   @ Miami (OH) L 74-77 63%     11 - 4 3 - 1 -2.7 -3.3 +0.6
  Jan 18, 2020 231   @ Western Michigan L 63-67 68%     11 - 5 3 - 2 -5.1 -4.2 -1.3
  Jan 21, 2020 173   Northern Illinois L 69-76 75%     11 - 6 3 - 3 -10.4 -0.2 -10.6
  Jan 24, 2020 135   @ Buffalo W 70-66 46%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +8.8 -1.5 +10.3
  Jan 28, 2020 121   @ Toledo L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 31, 2020 81   Akron L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 04, 2020 111   Ball St. W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 08, 2020 173   @ Northern Illinois W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 15, 2020 207   Ohio W 78-69 81%    
  Feb 18, 2020 225   @ Eastern Michigan W 67-62 65%    
  Feb 22, 2020 135   Buffalo W 81-76 68%    
  Feb 25, 2020 203   Miami (OH) W 78-69 81%    
  Feb 29, 2020 207   @ Ohio W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 03, 2020 147   Bowling Green W 78-73 70%    
  Mar 06, 2020 81   @ Akron L 70-76 29%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.0 0.8 8.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 8.0 5.5 0.7 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 9.0 7.8 1.0 0.0 19.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 6.2 8.4 1.1 0.0 16.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.4 8.0 2.3 0.1 13.8 5th
6th 1.2 5.9 3.1 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.6 3.7 0.5 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 7.7 14.1 19.7 21.6 18.0 10.2 3.7 0.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
14-4 81.4% 3.0    1.8 1.1 0.1
13-5 36.4% 3.7    1.1 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.8% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 3.6 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.8% 30.5% 27.4% 3.1% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 4.2%
14-4 3.7% 30.8% 30.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.5%
13-5 10.2% 25.4% 25.4% 12.3 0.1 1.8 0.7 0.0 7.6
12-6 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 12.5 1.6 1.6 0.1 14.8
11-7 21.6% 14.2% 14.2% 12.8 1.0 1.7 0.3 18.6
10-8 19.7% 9.4% 9.4% 13.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 17.8
9-9 14.1% 6.9% 6.9% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 13.1
8-10 7.7% 3.6% 3.6% 13.6 0.1 0.2 7.5
7-11 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 14.0 0.1 2.8
6-12 1.0% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.8 5.9 1.3 0.1 86.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.0 6.5 73.8 19.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 5.7% 11.0 5.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 6.1% 11.0 6.1