Loyola Chicago
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#90
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#114
Pace63.8#313
Improvement+4.6#17

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#159
First Shot+3.9#64
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#330
Layup/Dunks+8.9#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#304
Freethrows+0.9#106
Improvement+0.7#138

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#60
First Shot+2.1#103
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#11
Layups/Dunks+2.8#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#262
Freethrows+3.8#11
Improvement+3.9#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 25.0% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.1 12.8
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.8% 98.9%
Conference Champion 41.3% 67.3% 29.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round21.3% 24.7% 19.7%
Second Round4.6% 5.8% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.9% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 30.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 43 - 5
Quad 310 - 512 - 10
Quad 49 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 252   UC Davis W 82-48 90%     1 - 0 +26.0 +6.8 +20.0
  Nov 08, 2019 85   @ Furman L 63-87 37%     1 - 1 -14.7 -6.2 -8.3
  Nov 12, 2019 333   Coppin St. L 72-76 96%     1 - 2 -18.1 -11.2 -6.5
  Nov 16, 2019 240   Saint Joseph's W 85-68 89%     2 - 2 +9.6 +0.2 +8.0
  Nov 20, 2019 323   IUPUI W 85-62 95%     3 - 2 +10.1 +10.0 +1.7
  Nov 25, 2019 116   South Florida L 55-66 60%     3 - 3 -7.7 -9.7 +1.4
  Nov 26, 2019 101   Colorado St. L 60-61 53%     3 - 4 +4.0 -4.7 +8.6
  Nov 27, 2019 170   Old Dominion W 68-61 72%     4 - 4 +6.7 +3.2 +4.0
  Dec 03, 2019 104   @ Ball St. W 70-58 43%     5 - 4 +19.6 +3.0 +16.5
  Dec 15, 2019 283   Norfolk St. W 64-45 92%     6 - 4 +9.1 -8.3 +18.4
  Dec 18, 2019 154   Vanderbilt W 78-70 69%     7 - 4 +8.7 +2.5 +6.0
  Dec 22, 2019 93   Davidson L 56-59 63%     7 - 5 -0.5 -7.2 +6.2
  Dec 30, 2019 165   @ Valparaiso W 66-63 61%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +6.1 -4.6 +10.7
  Jan 04, 2020 144   Missouri St. W 62-58 76%     9 - 5 2 - 0 +2.4 -2.8 +5.7
  Jan 07, 2020 143   @ Drake L 62-65 56%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +1.3 -1.2 +2.2
  Jan 11, 2020 272   Evansville W 78-44 91%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +25.0 +11.6 +17.8
  Jan 16, 2020 171   Southern Illinois W 64-48 81%     11 - 6 4 - 1 +12.7 +4.0 +11.6
  Jan 19, 2020 209   @ Illinois St. W 62-50 72%     12 - 6 5 - 1 +11.9 -6.5 +19.2
  Jan 22, 2020 132   Indiana St. W 75-55 73%     13 - 6 6 - 1 +19.4 +12.0 +10.6
  Jan 26, 2020 61   @ Northern Iowa L 62-67 30%    
  Jan 29, 2020 171   @ Southern Illinois W 60-57 62%    
  Feb 01, 2020 100   Bradley W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 05, 2020 132   @ Indiana St. W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 09, 2020 165   Valparaiso W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 12, 2020 272   @ Evansville W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 15, 2020 61   Northern Iowa W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 19, 2020 209   Illinois St. W 70-58 86%    
  Feb 22, 2020 144   @ Missouri St. W 63-61 55%    
  Feb 25, 2020 143   Drake W 67-60 75%    
  Feb 29, 2020 100   @ Bradley L 63-65 41%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 8.8 14.2 11.0 4.4 0.9 41.3 1st
2nd 0.0 2.3 10.2 11.6 4.0 0.2 28.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 7.3 7.9 1.9 0.1 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.2 0.3 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.4 13.0 20.3 22.2 18.3 11.2 4.4 0.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
16-2 100.0% 4.4    4.4
15-3 98.6% 11.0    9.5 1.5 0.0
14-4 77.8% 14.2    8.8 5.0 0.4
13-5 39.5% 8.8    2.9 4.2 1.6 0.1
12-6 9.8% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 41.3% 41.3 26.8 11.5 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.9% 43.8% 37.1% 6.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 10.7%
16-2 4.4% 35.5% 35.0% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 2.8 0.7%
15-3 11.2% 31.0% 31.0% 12.1 0.4 2.5 0.6 7.7
14-4 18.3% 25.7% 25.7% 12.4 0.2 2.8 1.6 0.1 13.6
13-5 22.2% 21.3% 21.3% 12.6 0.0 2.1 2.3 0.4 17.5
12-6 20.3% 18.0% 18.0% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 16.6
11-7 13.0% 14.4% 14.4% 13.3 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 11.2
10-8 6.4% 11.5% 11.5% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.7
9-9 2.6% 6.2% 6.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
8-10 0.7% 9.2% 9.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.3% 21.2% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 9.4 7.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 78.7 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 9.3 9.1 9.1 15.2 15.2 24.2 12.1 15.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 16.7% 11.3 12.5 4.2