Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#293
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#274
Pace67.8#230
Improvement-3.5#305

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#275
First Shot-3.1#280
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#199
Layup/Dunks+2.2#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#329
Freethrows-1.5#288
Improvement-0.9#227

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#300
First Shot-2.8#266
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#296
Layups/Dunks+3.5#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#274
Freethrows-0.8#229
Improvement-2.6#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 11.5% 16.3% 4.2%
.500 or above in Conference 40.8% 52.1% 23.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.2% 3.8%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 60.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 412 - 713 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 280   Samford W 90-86 2OT 58%     1 - 0 -5.7 -6.1 -0.3
  Nov 14, 2019 324   @ Presbyterian W 77-55 48%     2 - 0 +14.9 +5.2 +11.4
  Nov 16, 2019 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 76-53 91%     3 - 0 +0.3 -2.9 +2.2
  Nov 20, 2019 63   @ Missouri L 52-70 5%     3 - 1 -7.2 -13.5 +5.9
  Nov 22, 2019 18   @ Butler L 50-68 2%     3 - 2 -1.1 -8.8 +5.8
  Nov 26, 2019 164   @ William & Mary L 84-95 16%     3 - 3 -8.0 +9.2 -17.0
  Nov 30, 2019 289   @ North Alabama L 57-67 38%     3 - 4 -14.6 -13.9 -1.0
  Dec 04, 2019 320   IUPUI W 56-51 68%     4 - 4 -7.5 -24.9 +17.5
  Dec 07, 2019 210   @ Illinois St. L 50-61 24%     4 - 5 -11.2 -20.7 +9.1
  Dec 16, 2019 156   Marshall L 62-89 31%     4 - 6 -29.3 -15.5 -12.2
  Dec 21, 2019 203   @ Ohio L 76-82 23%     4 - 7 -5.8 +7.6 -13.9
  Jan 02, 2020 231   Jacksonville St. L 72-76 47%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -10.9 -2.9 -7.9
  Jan 04, 2020 342   Tennessee Tech W 83-72 79%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -5.1 +8.4 -12.9
  Jan 09, 2020 337   SIU Edwardsville W 83-77 77%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -9.3 -0.6 -8.9
  Jan 11, 2020 218   Eastern Illinois W 69-66 45%     7 - 8 3 - 1 -3.2 -7.7 +4.5
  Jan 16, 2020 247   @ Tennessee St. L 48-64 29%     7 - 9 3 - 2 -18.0 -20.5 +0.3
  Jan 18, 2020 88   @ Belmont L 59-77 7%     7 - 10 3 - 3 -9.0 -10.6 +1.9
  Jan 23, 2020 342   @ Tennessee Tech W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 25, 2020 231   @ Jacksonville St. L 64-70 27%    
  Jan 30, 2020 329   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 01, 2020 303   Tennessee Martin W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 06, 2020 337   @ SIU Edwardsville W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 08, 2020 218   @ Eastern Illinois L 67-74 25%    
  Feb 13, 2020 315   Eastern Kentucky W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 15, 2020 130   @ Murray St. L 65-78 11%    
  Feb 20, 2020 88   Belmont L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 22, 2020 247   Tennessee St. W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 27, 2020 171   @ Austin Peay L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 29, 2020 315   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-76 45%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.1 4.1 1.0 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.9 6.1 1.4 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 6.1 8.4 1.9 0.1 17.2 6th
7th 0.2 4.6 9.8 3.4 0.2 0.0 18.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 9.5 4.3 0.3 17.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 6.5 4.1 0.3 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.8 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.3 11.6 19.0 21.5 19.0 12.5 6.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 25.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 18.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 13.5% 13.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 2.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1
11-7 6.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.4
10-8 12.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.4
9-9 19.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 18.9
8-10 21.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.5
7-11 19.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.0
6-12 11.6% 11.6
5-13 5.3% 5.3
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%