Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#321
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#305
Pace72.2#98
Improvement-0.8#222

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#287
First Shot-4.4#304
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#126
Layup/Dunks-1.2#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#338
Freethrows+1.3#89
Improvement-0.6#209

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#331
First Shot-4.5#315
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#310
Layups/Dunks+1.4#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#237
Freethrows-5.8#353
Improvement-0.2#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 10.5% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 15.1% 25.6% 7.0%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 92.4% 72.8%
Conference Champion 5.4% 9.8% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four8.5% 10.2% 7.2%
First Round3.3% 4.1% 2.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Away) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 22 - 5
Quad 411 - 1213 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 87   @ Temple L 57-75 5%     0 - 1 -8.8 -8.6 +0.0
  Nov 13, 2019 197   St. Francis (PA) L 65-71 34%     0 - 2 -11.5 -14.0 +2.6
  Nov 16, 2019 193   @ George Washington W 68-64 16%     1 - 2 +4.6 -4.2 +8.8
  Nov 22, 2019 68   Liberty L 48-89 6%     1 - 3 -33.5 -19.5 -14.2
  Nov 23, 2019 242   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 57-62 30%     1 - 4 -9.5 -15.1 +5.4
  Nov 24, 2019 272   Evansville L 112-115 3OT 36%     1 - 5 -9.1 +5.6 -13.9
  Nov 29, 2019 14   @ Ohio St. L 57-90 1%     1 - 6 -15.7 -7.0 -8.5
  Dec 04, 2019 173   Towson L 59-76 27%     1 - 7 -20.4 -10.1 -12.0
  Dec 07, 2019 322   Longwood W 73-65 62%     2 - 7 -4.9 -5.2 +0.2
  Dec 14, 2019 183   @ La Salle L 68-85 13%     2 - 8 -14.8 -1.9 -12.7
  Dec 28, 2019 192   @ Loyola Marymount W 74-71 16%     3 - 8 +3.8 +6.9 -3.0
  Dec 31, 2019 254   @ Cal St. Northridge L 82-93 24%     3 - 9 -13.3 +0.9 -13.7
  Jan 04, 2020 348   @ Delaware St. W 81-68 67%     4 - 9 1 - 0 -1.5 +0.4 -2.8
  Jan 06, 2020 319   South Carolina St. W 77-63 60%     5 - 9 2 - 0 +1.5 -7.2 +8.3
  Jan 11, 2020 311   @ Florida A&M L 68-77 35%     5 - 10 2 - 1 -15.0 -4.0 -11.1
  Jan 13, 2020 301   @ Bethune-Cookman L 78-85 33%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -12.3 -5.4 -6.2
  Jan 18, 2020 349   Howard W 68-58 84%     6 - 11 3 - 2 -10.6 -14.2 +4.0
  Jan 20, 2020 287   N.C. A&T L 70-76 51%     6 - 12 3 - 3 -16.2 -12.6 -3.0
  Jan 25, 2020 333   @ Coppin St. L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 27, 2020 351   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 67-60 74%    
  Feb 01, 2020 349   @ Howard W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 08, 2020 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-57 89%    
  Feb 10, 2020 302   NC Central W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 15, 2020 283   @ Norfolk St. L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 17, 2020 319   @ South Carolina St. L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 24, 2020 348   Delaware St. W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 29, 2020 333   Coppin St. W 79-75 65%    
  Mar 05, 2020 283   Norfolk St. W 68-67 51%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 2.6 0.8 5.4 1st
2nd 2.0 6.3 1.7 0.1 10.0 2nd
3rd 1.3 8.9 3.9 0.2 14.3 3rd
4th 0.5 7.4 8.0 0.4 16.3 4th
5th 0.2 4.4 10.5 1.3 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 8.6 4.1 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 1.0 5.3 5.0 0.5 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.1 1.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.2 11.8 19.5 23.8 20.3 12.5 4.5 0.9 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 91.9% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
12-4 57.3% 2.6    0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1
11-5 15.5% 1.9    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.9% 22.1% 22.1% 16.0 0.2 0.7
12-4 4.5% 20.8% 20.8% 16.0 0.9 3.5
11-5 12.5% 15.9% 15.9% 16.0 2.0 10.5
10-6 20.3% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 2.0 18.3
9-7 23.8% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 1.9 21.9
8-8 19.5% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 1.1 18.5
7-9 11.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 11.4
6-10 5.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 5.0
5-11 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-12 0.3% 0.3
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 16.0 8.6 91.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%