North Texas
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#93
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#107
Pace60.0#348
Improvement+4.1#28

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#99
First Shot+2.2#103
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#143
Layup/Dunks-1.1#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#46
Freethrows-1.2#264
Improvement+1.4#93

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#94
First Shot+0.1#150
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#15
Layups/Dunks+7.2#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#345
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#192
Freethrows-2.6#315
Improvement+2.7#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.9% 25.6% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 98.0% 98.8% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 70.9% 74.4% 43.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.9% 25.6% 19.8%
Second Round5.1% 5.3% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 28 - 9
Quad 49 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 45   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 56-59 23%     0 - 1 +10.4 -0.3 +10.3
  Nov 12, 2019 39   @ Arkansas L 43-66 21%     0 - 2 -9.0 -14.6 +2.4
  Nov 16, 2019 235   Eastern Michigan L 51-56 87%     0 - 3 -11.9 -11.6 -1.1
  Nov 19, 2019 296   N.C. A&T W 80-60 93%     1 - 3 +9.4 +8.0 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2019 73   Rhode Island L 47-60 43%     1 - 4 -5.6 -14.3 +7.1
  Nov 24, 2019 58   Utah St. L 59-68 39%     1 - 5 -0.5 -7.3 +6.4
  Dec 02, 2019 121   @ Texas Arlington W 77-66 49%     2 - 5 +16.8 +14.1 +3.7
  Dec 05, 2019 49   Oklahoma L 80-82 43%     2 - 6 +5.2 +14.7 -9.6
  Dec 07, 2019 145   Arkansas Little Rock W 76-53 75%     3 - 6 +21.5 +12.1 +11.7
  Dec 17, 2019 9   @ Dayton L 58-71 12%     3 - 7 +5.4 -5.4 +10.3
  Dec 21, 2019 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-53 98%     4 - 7 +14.9 +6.4 +7.6
  Jan 02, 2020 105   @ Western Kentucky L 84-93 43%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -1.8 +13.8 -15.7
  Jan 04, 2020 157   @ Marshall W 67-64 59%     5 - 8 1 - 1 +6.3 -0.4 +6.9
  Jan 09, 2020 154   Florida International W 74-56 77%     6 - 8 2 - 1 +15.9 +0.9 +15.5
  Jan 11, 2020 184   Florida Atlantic W 81-58 81%     7 - 8 3 - 1 +19.3 +12.2 +8.5
  Jan 16, 2020 265   @ Southern Miss W 72-52 79%     8 - 8 4 - 1 +17.0 +5.5 +13.6
  Jan 18, 2020 87   @ Louisiana Tech W 51-50 37%     9 - 8 5 - 1 +10.0 -8.0 +18.2
  Jan 20, 2020 239   Rice W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 23, 2020 161   Texas San Antonio W 75-67 79%    
  Jan 25, 2020 156   UTEP W 65-57 77%    
  Feb 01, 2020 239   @ Rice W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 06, 2020 285   @ Middle Tennessee W 71-61 82%    
  Feb 08, 2020 167   @ UAB W 61-58 59%    
  Feb 13, 2020 182   Charlotte W 64-55 81%    
  Feb 15, 2020 168   Old Dominion W 62-54 79%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 11 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.6 21.6 28.4 15.0 70.9 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 8.7 6.7 0.9 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.2 2.7 0.2 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 7.3 17.1 28.5 29.3 15.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 15.0    14.5 0.5
12-2 97.0% 28.4    22.2 6.0 0.2
11-3 75.9% 21.6    9.5 9.7 2.2 0.1 0.0
10-4 32.7% 5.6    0.6 2.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
9-5 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 70.9% 70.9 46.8 18.3 4.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 15.0% 32.7% 32.7% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.1 0.0%
12-2 29.3% 28.9% 28.9% 12.5 0.2 4.2 3.7 0.4 0.0 20.8
11-3 28.5% 24.0% 24.0% 12.9 0.0 1.6 4.0 1.1 0.0 21.6
10-4 17.1% 20.4% 20.4% 13.4 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.6
9-5 7.3% 13.9% 13.9% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.3
8-6 2.2% 8.3% 8.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1
7-7 0.5% 4.6% 4.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-8 0.1% 0.1
5-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 9.5 10.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 75.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.9% 100.0% 11.9 0.2 0.4 1.4 19.4 68.6 9.9 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.0% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5%