Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#171
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#191
Pace60.5#344
Improvement+4.8#15

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#263
First Shot-0.8#204
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#321
Layup/Dunks+2.7#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#138
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement-0.6#211

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#94
First Shot+3.4#77
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#230
Layups/Dunks-0.7#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#124
Freethrows+1.8#68
Improvement+5.5#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.3% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 27.2% 38.3% 16.0%
.500 or above in Conference 58.1% 72.1% 43.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round3.0% 3.2% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 36 - 77 - 15
Quad 48 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 168   Texas San Antonio W 72-60 49%     1 - 0 +11.8 -2.8 +14.9
  Nov 09, 2019 194   Delaware L 54-56 58%     1 - 1 -4.4 -14.3 +9.7
  Nov 10, 2019 241   Oakland L 52-61 65%     1 - 2 -13.5 -14.3 -0.5
  Nov 16, 2019 105   San Francisco L 60-76 42%     1 - 3 -14.3 -9.1 -6.6
  Nov 19, 2019 122   @ Murray St. L 66-79 28%     1 - 4 -7.2 -2.6 -5.3
  Nov 26, 2019 302   NC Central W 64-48 84%     2 - 4 +4.9 -0.7 +8.6
  Dec 01, 2019 95   @ Saint Louis L 60-69 21%     2 - 5 -0.7 -1.6 +0.2
  Dec 04, 2019 283   Norfolk St. W 76-59 82%     3 - 5 +7.1 +8.5 +0.4
  Dec 07, 2019 251   @ Southern Miss L 69-72 56%     3 - 6 -4.9 +0.5 -5.7
  Dec 15, 2019 79   @ Missouri L 48-64 17%     3 - 7 -6.2 -9.8 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2019 315   Hampton W 75-53 86%     4 - 7 +9.8 -2.1 +14.0
  Dec 21, 2019 335   Southeast Missouri St. W 64-45 90%     5 - 7 +4.8 -6.9 +14.8
  Dec 30, 2019 132   @ Indiana St. L 56-68 29%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -6.7 -11.4 +3.8
  Jan 04, 2020 209   Illinois St. W 67-55 71%     6 - 8 1 - 1 +6.0 -9.9 +15.6
  Jan 07, 2020 165   Valparaiso W 63-50 59%     7 - 8 2 - 1 +10.2 -6.5 +17.7
  Jan 11, 2020 100   @ Bradley L 48-67 21%     7 - 9 2 - 2 -11.1 -15.9 +2.8
  Jan 16, 2020 90   @ Loyola Chicago L 48-64 19%     7 - 10 2 - 3 -7.2 -9.7 -0.4
  Jan 19, 2020 143   Drake W 66-49 55%     8 - 10 3 - 3 +15.4 -1.4 +18.3
  Jan 22, 2020 61   Northern Iowa W 68-66 29%     9 - 10 4 - 3 +7.4 -0.3 +7.9
  Jan 25, 2020 209   @ Illinois St. L 61-62 50%    
  Jan 29, 2020 90   Loyola Chicago L 57-60 38%    
  Feb 01, 2020 143   @ Drake L 59-64 33%    
  Feb 05, 2020 272   @ Evansville W 63-60 60%    
  Feb 08, 2020 144   Missouri St. W 60-59 55%    
  Feb 12, 2020 165   @ Valparaiso L 63-66 37%    
  Feb 15, 2020 100   Bradley L 60-62 41%    
  Feb 20, 2020 272   Evansville W 66-57 79%    
  Feb 23, 2020 61   @ Northern Iowa L 56-68 14%    
  Feb 26, 2020 132   Indiana St. W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 144   @ Missouri St. L 57-62 33%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 2.5 1.1 0.1 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 5.5 2.5 0.2 10.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 9.0 4.6 0.4 0.0 16.8 4th
5th 0.0 2.4 9.7 5.6 0.4 18.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 8.8 7.7 0.7 0.0 18.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.5 7.3 1.3 16.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.1 5.6 1.3 0.1 12.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 0.2 2.0 6.2 13.7 19.9 21.7 17.1 11.5 5.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 71.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.3% 12.5% 12.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.9% 8.5% 8.5% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-6 5.6% 8.6% 8.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.1
11-7 11.5% 5.5% 5.5% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.9
10-8 17.1% 3.5% 3.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 16.5
9-9 21.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 21.0
8-10 19.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.1 0.3 19.5
7-11 13.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.6
6-12 6.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-13 2.0% 2.0
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.6 97.0 0.0%