Southern Miss
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#234
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#280
Pace64.1#312
Improvement-0.5#248

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#277
First Shot-6.7#332
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#37
Layup/Dunks+3.1#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.9#352
Freethrows-1.4#249
Improvement-0.8#292

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#191
First Shot-6.6#334
After Offensive Rebounds+5.9#7
Layups/Dunks-2.0#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#75
Freethrows-5.3#339
Improvement+0.3#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 3.2% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 6.7% 29.9% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 41.4% 22.6%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.1% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 24.1% 14.9% 24.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 3.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 1.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Neutral) - 1.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 73 - 13
Quad 44 - 37 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 161   @ South Alabama L 69-75 25%     0 - 1 -3.0 -3.1 -0.1
  Nov 14, 2019 158   @ North Florida L 63-66 24%     0 - 2 +0.2 -10.6 +10.8
  Nov 19, 2019 37   @ Iowa St. L 45-73 5%     0 - 3 -13.5 -21.4 +7.6
  Nov 27, 2019 5   Gonzaga L 60-82 2%    
  Dec 04, 2019 212   Tulane W 70-68 55%    
  Dec 07, 2019 224   Southern Illinois W 63-61 58%    
  Dec 14, 2019 158   North Florida L 70-71 45%    
  Dec 16, 2019 11   @ Texas Tech L 55-78 2%    
  Dec 30, 2019 87   Louisiana Tech L 61-68 27%    
  Jan 04, 2020 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 58-71 12%    
  Jan 09, 2020 128   @ UTEP L 58-67 20%    
  Jan 11, 2020 216   @ Texas San Antonio L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 16, 2020 152   North Texas L 58-60 44%    
  Jan 18, 2020 203   Rice W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 23, 2020 186   @ UAB L 61-67 31%    
  Jan 25, 2020 197   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 30, 2020 111   Old Dominion L 58-62 34%    
  Feb 01, 2020 213   Charlotte W 62-60 56%    
  Feb 06, 2020 233   @ Marshall L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 08, 2020 77   @ Western Kentucky L 61-75 12%    
  Feb 13, 2020 176   Florida Atlantic L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 15, 2020 119   Florida International L 73-77 38%    
Projected Record 6 - 16 5 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 1st
2nd 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.3 3.0 1.7 0.1 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 3.7 0.4 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.2 1.4 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.2 4.2 4.2 0.3 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 6.1 1.4 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 5.9 4.0 0.2 11.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.8 0.8 0.0 11.2 12th
13th 0.4 3.9 6.2 2.2 0.1 12.8 13th
14th 1.4 5.2 5.1 2.4 0.2 14.3 14th
Total 1.4 5.6 9.6 13.8 16.3 16.5 13.9 9.6 6.5 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-2 96.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
11-3 45.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-4 9.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.1% 7.5% 7.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-2 0.3% 23.6% 23.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-3 0.8% 4.6% 4.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-4 1.9% 7.0% 7.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
9-5 3.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
8-6 6.5% 1.5% 1.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
7-7 9.6% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.5
6-8 13.9% 0.9% 0.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.7
5-9 16.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 16.4
4-10 16.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.3
3-11 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.8
2-12 9.6% 9.6
1-13 5.6% 5.6
0-14 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%