Southern Miss
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#278
Expected Predictive Rating-11.1#321
Pace66.2#266
Improvement-2.7#288

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#287
First Shot-3.8#294
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#201
Layup/Dunks-3.5#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+9.1#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#346
Freethrows-2.6#332
Improvement-1.1#242

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#242
First Shot-2.9#265
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#136
Layups/Dunks+5.3#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#318
Freethrows-1.7#277
Improvement-1.6#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 2.1% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 48.9% 34.7% 62.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 49.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 91 - 17
Quad 43 - 44 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 183   @ South Alabama L 69-75 20%     0 - 1 -3.8 -1.3 -2.7
  Nov 14, 2019 168   @ North Florida L 63-66 19%     0 - 2 -0.2 -14.5 +14.4
  Nov 19, 2019 50   @ Iowa St. L 45-73 5%     0 - 3 -15.6 -23.5 +7.6
  Nov 27, 2019 3   Gonzaga L 69-94 2%     0 - 4 -6.5 +2.5 -8.7
  Nov 28, 2019 9   Seton Hall L 56-81 3%     0 - 5 -9.1 -4.5 -6.0
  Nov 29, 2019 40   Alabama L 68-83 6%     0 - 6 -3.8 +2.6 -6.9
  Dec 04, 2019 160   Tulane L 56-61 34%     0 - 7 -7.4 -17.9 +10.4
  Dec 07, 2019 192   Southern Illinois W 72-69 43%     1 - 7 -1.6 +5.2 -6.5
  Dec 14, 2019 168   North Florida L 69-72 37%     1 - 8 -6.0 -12.2 +6.3
  Dec 16, 2019 24   @ Texas Tech L 65-71 3%     1 - 9 +10.1 +3.4 +6.7
  Dec 30, 2019 86   Louisiana Tech L 49-80 17%     1 - 10 0 - 1 -27.5 -19.7 -9.9
  Jan 04, 2020 86   @ Louisiana Tech L 50-78 8%     1 - 11 0 - 2 -18.7 -19.1 +0.5
  Jan 09, 2020 147   @ UTEP L 64-76 16%     1 - 12 0 - 3 -7.8 -3.7 -3.9
  Jan 11, 2020 177   @ Texas San Antonio L 70-80 20%     1 - 13 0 - 4 -7.7 -5.2 -2.3
  Jan 16, 2020 94   North Texas L 52-72 20%     1 - 14 0 - 5 -17.8 -15.1 -4.8
  Jan 18, 2020 219   Rice L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 23, 2020 174   @ UAB L 57-66 19%    
  Jan 25, 2020 284   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 30, 2020 170   Old Dominion L 59-62 38%    
  Feb 01, 2020 171   Charlotte L 60-63 38%    
  Feb 06, 2020 158   @ Marshall L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 08, 2020 111   @ Western Kentucky L 63-76 11%    
  Feb 13, 2020 178   Florida Atlantic L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 15, 2020 163   Florida International L 73-77 36%    
Projected Record 4 - 20 3 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.5 3.1 0.6 4.2 10th
11th 0.4 4.0 3.8 0.1 8.2 11th
12th 0.7 6.0 9.4 1.4 0.0 17.5 12th
13th 2.5 12.1 15.4 4.5 0.1 34.6 13th
14th 4.4 11.7 10.9 3.1 0.1 30.2 14th
Total 4.4 14.1 23.7 24.8 18.6 9.6 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-7 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-8 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-9 9.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.5
4-10 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.6
3-11 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.8
2-12 23.7% 23.7
1-13 14.1% 14.1
0-14 4.4% 4.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.4%