St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#216
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#153
Pace69.3#191
Improvement-0.8#281

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#115
First Shot-2.7#260
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#20
Layup/Dunks-5.6#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#106
Freethrows+1.7#84
Improvement+0.8#57

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#307
First Shot-0.7#188
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#340
Layups/Dunks-3.8#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
Freethrows+1.0#141
Improvement-1.6#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 24.8% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 74.4% 83.3% 63.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.6% 90.6% 83.9%
Conference Champion 30.0% 34.9% 24.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four5.2% 4.8% 5.6%
First Round18.4% 22.4% 13.7%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 415 - 617 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 39   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 58-72 6%     0 - 1 +0.2 -10.9 +12.3
  Nov 08, 2019 105   @ Richmond L 98-100 OT 18%     0 - 2 +4.7 +11.7 -6.8
  Nov 13, 2019 306   @ Morgan St. W 71-65 63%     1 - 2 -0.4 -5.4 +4.9
  Nov 16, 2019 230   American W 79-76 64%     2 - 2 -3.6 +7.5 -10.8
  Nov 19, 2019 181   Delaware W 71-70 55%    
  Nov 23, 2019 24   @ Florida St. L 65-84 4%    
  Nov 30, 2019 189   @ Saint Joseph's L 83-87 33%    
  Dec 04, 2019 239   Lehigh W 81-77 65%    
  Dec 07, 2019 208   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 67-71 38%    
  Dec 22, 2019 151   William & Mary L 75-78 37%    
  Jan 02, 2020 242   @ Bryant L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 04, 2020 350   @ Central Connecticut St. W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 09, 2020 335   Wagner W 82-70 85%    
  Jan 11, 2020 302   St. Francis Brooklyn W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 15, 2020 272   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 18, 2020 294   Sacred Heart W 84-76 75%    
  Jan 20, 2020 280   Merrimack W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 23, 2020 248   @ LIU Brooklyn L 80-81 45%    
  Jan 25, 2020 302   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 30, 2020 350   Central Connecticut St. W 84-67 93%    
  Feb 01, 2020 242   Bryant W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 06, 2020 294   @ Sacred Heart W 81-79 56%    
  Feb 08, 2020 335   @ Wagner W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 15, 2020 288   @ Mount St. Mary's W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 18, 2020 283   Robert Morris W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 23, 2020 248   LIU Brooklyn W 83-78 65%    
  Feb 27, 2020 288   Mount St. Mary's W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 29, 2020 283   @ Robert Morris W 70-69 52%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.3 7.9 7.7 5.4 2.9 0.6 30.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.0 6.6 3.9 1.2 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.9 4.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.9 1.5 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 3.4 1.3 0.1 6.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.2 0.2 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.1 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.3 7.9 10.4 12.1 13.7 13.5 12.1 8.9 5.5 2.9 0.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.1
16-2 97.6% 5.4    4.9 0.4
15-3 86.5% 7.7    6.2 1.4 0.1
14-4 65.1% 7.9    4.5 2.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 32.1% 4.3    1.3 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 8.9% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.0% 30.0 20.5 7.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 56.9% 56.9% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.9% 52.5% 52.5% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4
16-2 5.5% 44.3% 44.3% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.1 3.1
15-3 8.9% 35.9% 35.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.5 5.7
14-4 12.1% 29.7% 29.7% 15.1 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.1 8.5
13-5 13.5% 23.8% 23.8% 15.5 0.2 1.2 1.8 10.3
12-6 13.7% 18.9% 18.9% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.9 11.1
11-7 12.1% 14.2% 14.2% 15.9 0.2 1.5 10.4
10-8 10.4% 11.8% 11.8% 15.9 0.1 1.1 9.1
9-9 7.9% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 7.1
8-10 5.3% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.3 5.0
7-11 3.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 3.4
6-12 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.3 1.2 3.5 6.8 9.4 78.9 0.0%