St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#211
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#196
Pace70.0#150
Improvement-2.9#291

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#130
First Shot+0.8#146
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#113
Layup/Dunks-0.4#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#244
Freethrows+1.1#95
Improvement-1.1#240

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#311
First Shot-2.8#269
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#325
Layups/Dunks-1.1#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#234
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement-1.8#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 16.7% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 94.2% 94.8% 77.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 91.5% 70.9%
Conference Champion 9.1% 9.4% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 3.5%
First Round14.9% 15.1% 10.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 22 - 5
Quad 415 - 718 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 42   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 58-72 7%     0 - 1 -0.4 -10.2 +10.9
  Nov 08, 2019 76   @ Richmond L 98-100 OT 12%     0 - 2 +7.9 +16.5 -8.3
  Nov 13, 2019 322   @ Morgan St. W 71-65 64%     1 - 2 -0.8 -6.0 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2019 220   American W 79-76 63%     2 - 2 -3.6 +9.2 -12.5
  Nov 19, 2019 192   Delaware L 64-79 57%     2 - 3 -19.9 -9.3 -11.4
  Nov 23, 2019 17   @ Florida St. L 65-80 4%     2 - 4 +1.8 -0.5 +2.8
  Nov 30, 2019 249   @ Saint Joseph's W 79-63 46%     3 - 4 +13.9 +6.0 +8.4
  Dec 04, 2019 294   Lehigh W 77-69 76%     4 - 4 -2.4 -3.1 +0.6
  Dec 07, 2019 293   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 63-60 55%     5 - 4 -1.5 -7.4 +6.1
  Dec 22, 2019 174   William & Mary W 78-72 40%     6 - 4 +5.4 +2.7 +2.8
  Jan 02, 2020 241   @ Bryant L 63-67 44%     6 - 5 0 - 1 -5.7 -6.6 +0.6
  Jan 04, 2020 350   @ Central Connecticut St. W 93-69 88%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +8.2 +0.3 +4.8
  Jan 09, 2020 333   Wagner W 80-62 85%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +4.0 -3.2 +6.7
  Jan 11, 2020 295   St. Francis Brooklyn W 81-80 76%     9 - 5 3 - 1 -9.5 +0.3 -9.8
  Jan 15, 2020 312   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 100-85 61%     10 - 5 4 - 1 +9.0 +12.1 -4.5
  Jan 18, 2020 204   Sacred Heart W 72-65 60%     11 - 5 5 - 1 +1.4 -1.9 +3.6
  Jan 20, 2020 254   Merrimack L 55-72 69%     11 - 6 5 - 2 -25.2 -14.9 -11.6
  Jan 23, 2020 240   @ LIU Brooklyn L 81-86 44%     11 - 7 5 - 3 -6.7 -1.3 -4.8
  Jan 25, 2020 295   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 79-86 56%     11 - 8 5 - 4 -11.7 +5.2 -16.9
  Jan 30, 2020 350   Central Connecticut St. W 83-65 96%    
  Feb 01, 2020 241   Bryant W 78-74 67%    
  Feb 06, 2020 204   @ Sacred Heart L 75-78 36%    
  Feb 08, 2020 333   @ Wagner W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 15, 2020 270   @ Mount St. Mary's W 68-67 49%    
  Feb 18, 2020 221   Robert Morris W 72-69 63%    
  Feb 23, 2020 240   LIU Brooklyn W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 27, 2020 270   Mount St. Mary's W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 29, 2020 221   @ Robert Morris L 70-72 41%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.1 4.6 1.4 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 3.0 8.9 3.3 0.2 15.5 2nd
3rd 1.2 10.3 5.5 0.3 17.3 3rd
4th 0.4 7.7 9.5 1.0 18.5 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 10.7 1.7 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 6.9 3.7 0.1 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.2 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.0 14.4 23.5 24.6 18.5 8.2 1.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 87.1% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 55.9% 4.6    1.7 2.1 0.7 0.0
12-6 16.8% 3.1    0.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.2
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 3.1 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.6% 31.6% 31.6% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.1
13-5 8.2% 26.7% 26.7% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 6.0
12-6 18.5% 21.1% 21.1% 15.3 0.2 2.3 1.3 14.6
11-7 24.6% 17.6% 17.6% 15.5 0.1 1.8 2.4 20.3
10-8 23.5% 14.2% 14.2% 15.8 0.8 2.6 20.2
9-9 14.4% 11.8% 11.8% 15.9 0.2 1.5 12.7
8-10 7.0% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 6.4
7-11 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.0
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 1.2 6.6 8.7 83.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.0 18.4 67.3 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%