Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#128
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#216
Pace69.5#176
Improvement-1.8#261

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#163
First Shot-1.7#233
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#35
Layup/Dunks-4.9#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#183
Freethrows-1.0#250
Improvement+0.5#147

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#120
First Shot+2.5#95
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#243
Layups/Dunks+2.5#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#118
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement-2.3#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 12.5% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 26.3% 33.5% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 83.2% 57.4%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.6% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 2.5%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round10.7% 12.4% 7.6%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 65.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 36 - 77 - 14
Quad 47 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 97   Tulsa W 73-59 50%     1 - 0 +16.2 +7.7 +9.4
  Nov 12, 2019 101   @ Nevada L 73-80 31%     1 - 1 +0.6 -5.0 +6.4
  Nov 17, 2019 20   @ Oregon L 47-67 10%     1 - 2 -3.8 -15.9 +10.5
  Nov 19, 2019 3   @ Gonzaga L 66-72 5%     1 - 3 +15.4 +0.5 +15.0
  Nov 27, 2019 90   Furman L 57-58 36%     1 - 4 +4.9 -9.3 +14.2
  Nov 28, 2019 307   @ Elon W 77-67 79%     2 - 4 +4.0 +2.9 +1.5
  Dec 02, 2019 96   North Texas L 66-77 50%     2 - 5 -8.7 -0.7 -8.9
  Dec 07, 2019 160   UC Santa Barbara L 68-72 68%     2 - 6 -6.5 -6.7 +0.1
  Dec 11, 2019 34   @ Houston L 63-71 13%     2 - 7 +6.7 +0.5 +5.6
  Dec 19, 2019 98   @ Georgia St. L 77-83 30%     2 - 8 0 - 1 +1.8 -2.7 +5.3
  Dec 21, 2019 135   @ Georgia Southern L 74-77 40%     2 - 9 0 - 2 +1.8 -1.9 +4.0
  Jan 02, 2020 214   @ Arkansas St. W 73-52 60%     3 - 9 1 - 2 +20.7 +2.0 +19.9
  Jan 04, 2020 158   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 89-92 46%     3 - 10 1 - 3 +0.3 +11.3 -10.7
  Jan 06, 2020 180   South Alabama L 54-66 72%     3 - 11 1 - 4 -15.6 -18.7 +2.4
  Jan 09, 2020 194   Appalachian St. W 66-56 76%     4 - 11 2 - 4 +5.1 -0.1 +6.5
  Jan 11, 2020 164   Coastal Carolina L 77-82 69%     4 - 12 2 - 5 -7.9 -5.9 -1.5
  Jan 16, 2020 255   @ Louisiana W 81-65 68%     5 - 12 3 - 5 +13.5 +6.8 +6.8
  Jan 18, 2020 246   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 25, 2020 138   @ Texas St. L 65-67 40%    
  Jan 30, 2020 255   Louisiana W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 01, 2020 246   Louisiana Monroe W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 06, 2020 194   @ Appalachian St. W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 164   @ Coastal Carolina L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 13, 2020 214   Arkansas St. W 74-66 79%    
  Feb 15, 2020 158   Arkansas Little Rock W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 20, 2020 98   Georgia St. W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 22, 2020 135   Georgia Southern W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 29, 2020 138   Texas St. W 68-65 63%    
  Mar 03, 2020 277   @ Troy W 72-66 71%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.7 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 4.8 2.7 0.3 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.8 4.3 0.5 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 7.1 7.0 1.2 0.0 16.2 4th
5th 0.2 4.8 8.5 1.9 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 7.9 3.3 0.1 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.4 4.1 0.3 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.3 0.7 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.3 7.6 13.2 18.4 20.9 17.8 11.2 5.0 0.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 72.3% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
14-6 34.9% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0
13-7 7.5% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.9% 40.4% 40.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
14-6 5.0% 31.1% 31.1% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.5
13-7 11.2% 22.6% 22.6% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 8.7
12-8 17.8% 15.6% 15.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.1 15.1
11-9 20.9% 9.2% 9.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.3 19.0
10-10 18.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 17.2
9-11 13.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.1 0.3 12.8
8-12 7.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 7.5
7-13 3.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.3
6-14 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.5 4.5 1.3 89.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.5 1.3 47.4 47.4 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%