Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#128
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#149
Pace66.4#269
Improvement-0.6#269

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#174
First Shot+0.3#159
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#190
Layup/Dunks-4.9#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#63
Freethrows+0.2#158
Improvement-0.9#309

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#107
First Shot+4.9#52
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#313
Layups/Dunks+4.5#39
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#261
Freethrows+1.8#104
Improvement+0.3#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 29.4% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 2.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 12.1 13.1
.500 or above 68.3% 89.8% 67.6%
.500 or above in Conference 80.1% 90.2% 79.8%
Conference Champion 21.5% 35.6% 21.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.2% 1.7%
First Four0.1% 1.1% 0.1%
First Round16.3% 28.7% 16.0%
Second Round2.6% 8.7% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 2.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 2.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 11
Quad 410 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 132   Tulsa W 73-59 62%     1 - 0 +13.0 +5.4 +8.5
  Nov 12, 2019 111   @ Nevada L 73-80 35%     1 - 1 -0.9 -5.1 +4.9
  Nov 17, 2019 12   @ Oregon L 47-67 7%     1 - 2 -1.0 -11.8 +9.1
  Nov 19, 2019 5   @ Gonzaga L 62-82 3%    
  Nov 27, 2019 60   Furman L 64-71 27%    
  Nov 28, 2019 311   @ Elon W 72-63 79%    
  Dec 02, 2019 155   North Texas W 62-57 68%    
  Dec 07, 2019 168   UC Santa Barbara W 70-64 70%    
  Dec 11, 2019 42   @ Houston L 60-72 14%    
  Dec 19, 2019 150   @ Georgia St. L 70-72 45%    
  Dec 21, 2019 113   @ Georgia Southern L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 02, 2020 258   @ Arkansas St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 04, 2020 171   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 06, 2020 157   South Alabama W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 09, 2020 178   Appalachian St. W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 11, 2020 194   Coastal Carolina W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 16, 2020 224   @ Louisiana W 75-72 58%    
  Jan 18, 2020 237   @ Louisiana Monroe W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 25, 2020 135   @ Texas St. L 62-65 41%    
  Jan 30, 2020 224   Louisiana W 78-69 76%    
  Feb 01, 2020 237   Louisiana Monroe W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 06, 2020 178   @ Appalachian St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 08, 2020 194   @ Coastal Carolina W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 13, 2020 258   Arkansas St. W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 15, 2020 171   Arkansas Little Rock W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 20, 2020 150   Georgia St. W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 22, 2020 113   Georgia Southern W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 29, 2020 135   Texas St. W 65-62 62%    
  Mar 03, 2020 304   @ Troy W 73-65 75%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 5.5 4.8 2.9 1.3 0.2 21.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.4 4.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.2 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 4.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.3 5.2 6.9 8.7 10.1 11.3 11.6 11.4 9.4 7.6 5.4 3.0 1.3 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.6% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 98.0% 2.9    2.8 0.2
17-3 90.1% 4.8    4.0 0.8 0.0
16-4 71.9% 5.5    3.6 1.7 0.2
15-5 45.0% 4.2    1.9 1.8 0.5 0.1
14-6 18.2% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 14.4 5.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 66.4% 55.5% 11.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 24.6%
19-1 1.3% 59.6% 56.7% 2.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 6.5%
18-2 3.0% 50.6% 49.1% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.5 3.1%
17-3 5.4% 44.2% 43.6% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.0 1.1%
16-4 7.6% 36.3% 36.1% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 4.9 0.2%
15-5 9.4% 29.8% 29.7% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.6 0.1%
14-6 11.4% 22.0% 22.0% 13.5 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.9
13-7 11.6% 14.4% 14.4% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 10.0
12-8 11.3% 8.7% 8.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 10.4
11-9 10.1% 5.3% 5.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.5
10-10 8.7% 2.1% 2.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.5
9-11 6.9% 1.2% 1.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
8-12 5.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
7-13 3.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-14 2.2% 2.2
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.4% 16.3% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 3.6 6.2 4.3 1.3 0.1 83.6 0.2%