Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#217
Expected Predictive Rating-12.6#323
Pace77.8#31
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#176
First Shot-2.4#245
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#63
Layup/Dunks-7.2#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#68
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
Freethrows+1.6#92
Improvement-0.5#265

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#265
First Shot-0.5#184
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#297
Layups/Dunks+2.3#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#236
Freethrows-2.4#298
Improvement+0.5#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 8.9% 11.5% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 32.0% 35.2% 24.5%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.7% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 16.7% 14.5% 21.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.5% 1.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 14
Quad 45 - 38 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 40   @ Oklahoma L 67-85 6%     0 - 1 -3.7 -8.1 +7.2
  Nov 08, 2019 225   Southern Illinois L 60-72 52%     0 - 2 -15.4 -11.8 -3.8
  Nov 09, 2019 178   Oakland L 62-75 42%     0 - 3 -14.0 -7.1 -7.4
  Nov 10, 2019 152   Delaware L 79-91 37%     0 - 4 -11.7 +0.2 -11.0
  Nov 18, 2019 18   @ Utah St. L 50-82 4%     0 - 5 -15.1 -18.3 +5.4
  Nov 30, 2019 268   Prairie View W 80-74 70%    
  Dec 03, 2019 299   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 07, 2019 119   @ Texas St. L 66-75 21%    
  Dec 18, 2019 68   Oregon St. L 72-83 15%    
  Dec 21, 2019 163   Illinois St. W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 02, 2020 185   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 04, 2020 124   @ Florida International L 82-91 22%    
  Jan 09, 2020 88   Louisiana Tech L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 11, 2020 236   Southern Miss W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 15, 2020 131   @ UTEP L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 18, 2020 131   UTEP L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 23, 2020 151   @ North Texas L 64-70 28%    
  Jan 25, 2020 199   @ Rice L 83-87 37%    
  Jan 30, 2020 186   UAB W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 01, 2020 209   Middle Tennessee W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 06, 2020 129   @ Old Dominion L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 08, 2020 212   @ Charlotte L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 13, 2020 223   Marshall W 85-82 62%    
  Feb 15, 2020 78   Western Kentucky L 74-81 28%    
Projected Record 8 - 16 5 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 3.5 0.8 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.5 4.2 2.3 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 4.6 0.5 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.9 1.8 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.2 4.0 4.8 0.3 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.8 6.4 1.7 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.7 5.2 4.1 0.2 10.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.3 1.0 0.0 10.1 12th
13th 0.4 2.5 5.0 2.0 0.1 9.9 13th
14th 0.6 2.4 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 14th
Total 0.6 2.8 6.6 11.0 14.6 16.5 15.8 12.5 9.1 5.6 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 98.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-2 80.3% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
11-3 41.9% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-4 10.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-5 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.1% 17.5% 17.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-2 0.5% 18.3% 18.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-3 1.3% 13.2% 13.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
10-4 2.9% 9.2% 9.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
9-5 5.6% 4.9% 4.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4
8-6 9.1% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8
7-7 12.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.3
6-8 15.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.7
5-9 16.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.4
4-10 14.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.6
3-11 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.0
2-12 6.6% 6.6
1-13 2.8% 2.8
0-14 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%