Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#177
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#230
Pace77.3#27
Improvement+6.5#5

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#105
First Shot+3.2#79
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#232
Layup/Dunks-4.3#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#22
Freethrows-0.6#212
Improvement+3.7#20

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#265
First Shot-2.8#258
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#198
Layups/Dunks+1.4#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#200
Freethrows-2.3#300
Improvement+2.8#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 9.1% 14.1% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 48.1% 62.1% 31.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.4% 2.8%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round2.4% 3.1% 1.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Home) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 45 - 310 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 52   @ Oklahoma L 67-85 12%     0 - 1 -5.7 -9.7 +6.7
  Nov 08, 2019 192   Southern Illinois L 60-72 54%     0 - 2 -13.7 -10.4 -3.5
  Nov 09, 2019 204   Oakland L 62-75 59%     0 - 3 -15.8 -8.5 -7.7
  Nov 10, 2019 199   Delaware L 79-91 57%     0 - 4 -14.4 -2.0 -11.6
  Nov 18, 2019 56   @ Utah St. L 50-82 13%     0 - 5 -20.3 -20.4 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2019 223   Prairie View L 72-79 72%     0 - 6 -13.5 -6.4 -6.7
  Dec 03, 2019 296   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 89-67 83%     1 - 6 +11.3 +13.7 -2.4
  Dec 07, 2019 136   @ Texas St. W 77-71 30%     2 - 6 +10.7 +12.0 -0.9
  Dec 18, 2019 63   Oregon St. L 78-88 20%     2 - 7 -1.8 +1.5 -2.6
  Dec 21, 2019 206   Illinois St. W 89-70 69%     3 - 7 +13.3 +3.4 +7.8
  Jan 02, 2020 178   @ Florida Atlantic L 64-79 39%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -12.7 -10.8 -1.0
  Jan 04, 2020 163   @ Florida International L 83-90 OT 35%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -3.7 -6.2 +3.9
  Jan 09, 2020 86   Louisiana Tech W 89-73 35%     4 - 9 1 - 2 +19.5 +14.9 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2020 278   Southern Miss W 80-70 80%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +0.5 +2.4 -2.0
  Jan 15, 2020 147   @ UTEP L 77-80 OT 32%     5 - 10 2 - 3 +1.2 +2.9 -1.4
  Jan 18, 2020 147   UTEP W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 23, 2020 94   @ North Texas L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 25, 2020 219   @ Rice W 81-80 50%    
  Jan 30, 2020 174   UAB W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 01, 2020 284   Middle Tennessee W 83-74 81%    
  Feb 06, 2020 170   @ Old Dominion L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 08, 2020 171   @ Charlotte L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 13, 2020 158   Marshall W 85-83 56%    
  Feb 15, 2020 111   Western Kentucky L 78-80 44%    
Projected Record 9 - 15 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 2.9 0.2 6.4 4th
5th 1.3 6.7 0.9 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 5.9 4.2 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 9.1 0.8 11.6 7th
8th 0.3 6.1 5.0 0.1 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 9.6 1.2 12.8 9th
10th 0.5 6.4 4.9 0.1 11.8 10th
11th 0.1 3.2 6.5 0.8 10.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 4.4 1.6 0.0 7.3 12th
13th 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.4 2.6 8.8 16.8 23.3 22.5 15.6 7.3 2.3 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 58.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-4 16.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.4% 18.7% 18.7% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
10-4 2.3% 9.6% 9.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1
9-5 7.3% 8.0% 8.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 6.7
8-6 15.6% 3.9% 3.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 15.0
7-7 22.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.2 0.3 22.0
6-8 23.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 23.0
5-9 16.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 16.7
4-10 8.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.7
3-11 2.6% 2.6
2-12 0.4% 0.4
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.9 15.8 73.7 10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.4%