West Virginia
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#6
Expected Predictive Rating+17.5#10
Pace73.7#69
Improvement+2.6#76

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#42
First Shot+1.2#137
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#3
Layup/Dunks+2.4#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#318
Freethrows+1.7#62
Improvement-0.2#185

Defense
Total Defense+11.0#3
First Shot+11.9#1
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#255
Layups/Dunks+6.1#12
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#5
Freethrows-1.7#276
Improvement+2.8#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.0% 7.3% 2.4%
#1 Seed 23.3% 30.8% 15.0%
Top 2 Seed 53.0% 63.9% 40.8%
Top 4 Seed 86.9% 93.2% 80.0%
Top 6 Seed 97.2% 99.1% 95.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 2.7 2.3 3.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 99.2% 95.3%
Conference Champion 8.2% 12.4% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round90.8% 92.6% 88.7%
Sweet Sixteen59.6% 63.9% 55.0%
Elite Eight33.9% 37.6% 29.8%
Final Four17.9% 20.2% 15.3%
Championship Game8.9% 10.3% 7.3%
National Champion4.2% 4.9% 3.3%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 29 - 6
Quad 28 - 217 - 8
Quad 35 - 023 - 8
Quad 43 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 81   Akron W 94-84 88%     1 - 0 +13.8 +6.0 +6.1
  Nov 15, 2019 72   @ Pittsburgh W 68-53 73%     2 - 0 +25.2 +7.9 +18.8
  Nov 18, 2019 130   Northern Colorado W 69-61 94%     3 - 0 +7.2 +1.7 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2019 176   Boston University W 69-44 96%     4 - 0 +21.4 -4.8 +26.8
  Nov 26, 2019 61   Northern Iowa W 60-55 79%     5 - 0 +13.3 -9.1 +22.5
  Nov 27, 2019 40   Wichita St. W 75-63 71%     6 - 0 +23.0 +8.2 +14.4
  Dec 01, 2019 59   Rhode Island W 86-81 85%     7 - 0 +10.5 +7.8 +2.2
  Dec 07, 2019 69   @ St. John's L 68-70 72%     7 - 1 +8.5 -5.9 +14.7
  Dec 12, 2019 150   Austin Peay W 84-53 95%     8 - 1 +29.1 +6.4 +23.0
  Dec 14, 2019 214   Nicholls St. W 83-57 97%     9 - 1 +19.9 +4.6 +13.8
  Dec 21, 2019 234   @ Youngstown St. W 75-64 94%     10 - 1 +9.7 -0.1 +9.8
  Dec 29, 2019 13   Ohio St. W 67-59 58%     11 - 1 +22.6 -1.0 +23.3
  Jan 04, 2020 1   @ Kansas L 53-60 24%     11 - 2 0 - 1 +16.9 -3.2 +19.6
  Jan 06, 2020 68   @ Oklahoma St. W 55-41 72%     12 - 2 1 - 1 +24.6 -8.7 +33.9
  Jan 11, 2020 23   Texas Tech W 66-54 74%     13 - 2 2 - 1 +22.1 -2.9 +24.2
  Jan 14, 2020 60   TCU W 81-49 85%     14 - 2 3 - 1 +37.4 +19.1 +21.0
  Jan 18, 2020 76   @ Kansas St. L 68-84 74%     14 - 3 3 - 2 -6.2 +2.2 -8.4
  Jan 20, 2020 63   Texas W 97-59 86%     15 - 3 4 - 2 +43.2 +27.0 +15.7
  Jan 25, 2020 79   Missouri W 74-51 88%     16 - 3 +26.9 +6.4 +21.2
  Jan 29, 2020 23   @ Texas Tech W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 01, 2020 76   Kansas St. W 72-59 88%    
  Feb 05, 2020 58   Iowa St. W 79-69 84%    
  Feb 08, 2020 45   @ Oklahoma W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 12, 2020 1   Kansas L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 15, 2020 5   @ Baylor L 64-68 34%    
  Feb 18, 2020 68   Oklahoma St. W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 22, 2020 60   @ TCU W 68-63 69%    
  Feb 24, 2020 63   @ Texas W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 29, 2020 45   Oklahoma W 75-66 81%    
  Mar 03, 2020 58   @ Iowa St. W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 07, 2020 5   Baylor W 67-65 58%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.5 1.3 8.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.0 8.0 7.8 1.7 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.9 13.6 18.0 11.9 2.5 0.0 51.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 5.2 4.0 0.8 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.0 11.3 18.0 21.8 20.5 13.1 5.3 1.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.3    1.0 0.3
15-3 66.8% 3.5    1.4 1.6 0.5
14-4 21.2% 2.8    0.7 1.4 0.7
13-5 2.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 3.2 3.6 1.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.3% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 1.2 1.1 0.2 100.0%
15-3 5.3% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 1.2 4.0 1.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 13.1% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.5 7.5 4.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 20.5% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 1.9 6.9 9.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 21.8% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.4 3.2 9.0 6.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 18.0% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.2 0.6 3.7 7.1 5.0 1.5 0.2 100.0%
10-8 11.3% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 4.1 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 6.0% 99.8% 9.2% 90.6% 5.2 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 2.0% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 6.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
7-11 0.5% 95.3% 2.3% 93.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 95.2%
6-12 0.1% 70.5% 70.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.5%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 16.6% 83.3% 2.7 23.3 29.7 21.0 13.0 6.6 3.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 87.6 12.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 93.4 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 75.7 24.3