Youngstown St.
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#232
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#208
Pace67.6#236
Improvement+1.0#140

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#185
First Shot-3.2#281
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#18
Layup/Dunks-2.8#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#220
Freethrows+1.0#105
Improvement+2.3#57

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#280
First Shot-2.5#249
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#277
Layups/Dunks-0.5#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
Freethrows+0.0#188
Improvement-1.3#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.6% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 56.0% 66.9% 37.2%
.500 or above in Conference 73.5% 83.2% 56.8%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 1.5%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.7%
First Round4.1% 4.8% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2019 6   @ Louisville L 55-78 2%     0 - 1 -3.4 -5.3 +0.9
  Nov 15, 2019 263   @ Louisiana L 61-73 45%     0 - 2 -14.8 -15.5 +1.0
  Nov 19, 2019 297   NC Central W 66-60 74%     1 - 2 -4.6 -1.7 -2.2
  Nov 21, 2019 86   @ Akron L 60-82 12%     1 - 3 -13.0 -11.5 -0.4
  Nov 23, 2019 317   @ South Carolina Upstate W 66-61 60%     2 - 3 -1.7 -11.5 +9.7
  Nov 30, 2019 187   @ Central Michigan L 72-88 29%     2 - 4 -14.3 -2.3 -12.0
  Dec 04, 2019 223   Robert Morris W 81-70 60%     3 - 4 +4.5 +0.3 +3.5
  Dec 07, 2019 230   @ Western Michigan L 64-66 39%     3 - 5 -3.1 -1.1 -2.2
  Dec 15, 2019 329   Southeast Missouri St. W 65-50 81%     4 - 5 +1.8 -12.7 +15.2
  Dec 18, 2019 335   Binghamton W 73-55 83%     5 - 5 +3.9 -6.6 +11.0
  Dec 21, 2019 11   West Virginia L 64-75 7%     5 - 6 +1.2 +0.1 +1.1
  Dec 28, 2019 321   @ IUPUI W 83-73 61%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +3.2 +1.3 +1.5
  Dec 30, 2019 229   @ Illinois-Chicago W 70-64 39%     7 - 6 2 - 0 +4.9 -1.9 +6.8
  Jan 04, 2020 312   @ Cleveland St. L 74-82 60%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -14.5 +7.3 -22.7
  Jan 09, 2020 207   Oakland W 61-60 57%     8 - 7 3 - 1 -4.8 -6.1 +1.5
  Jan 11, 2020 267   Detroit Mercy W 69-67 68%     9 - 7 4 - 1 -6.8 -7.4 +0.7
  Jan 16, 2020 115   @ Northern Kentucky L 63-88 16%     9 - 8 4 - 2 -18.4 -3.0 -16.8
  Jan 18, 2020 117   @ Wright St. L 72-79 16%     9 - 9 4 - 3 -0.6 +0.6 -1.0
  Jan 23, 2020 245   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 25, 2020 214   Green Bay W 82-80 59%    
  Jan 30, 2020 229   Illinois-Chicago W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 01, 2020 321   IUPUI W 78-70 79%    
  Feb 08, 2020 312   Cleveland St. W 73-65 78%    
  Feb 13, 2020 267   @ Detroit Mercy L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 15, 2020 207   @ Oakland L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 20, 2020 117   Wright St. L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 22, 2020 115   Northern Kentucky L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 27, 2020 214   @ Green Bay L 79-83 36%    
  Feb 29, 2020 245   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-72 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 3.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 9.1 12.1 5.6 0.8 0.0 28.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 7.4 9.6 2.7 0.1 20.4 4th
5th 0.1 4.4 8.9 2.2 0.1 15.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 7.0 2.5 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.9 2.7 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.2 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.8 15.0 20.3 21.1 16.8 9.8 4.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 51.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 16.7% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 22.7% 22.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.1% 18.1% 18.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 4.3% 10.0% 10.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.8
12-6 9.8% 8.4% 8.4% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 9.0
11-7 16.8% 6.9% 6.9% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 15.7
10-8 21.1% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.1 0.9 20.1
9-9 20.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.1 0.6 19.6
8-10 15.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 14.6
7-11 7.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.7
6-12 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 13.3 8.6 57.1 31.4 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 0.1%